Russia and North Korea completing suspected joint war supply route; U.S. to spread out $400 mln in Ukraine aid until 2029; Ukraine is producing drones faster than the U.S.; Kazakhstan forced to cut oil production after drone attacks on Russia.

OUR LEAD STORY:

KYIV, Ukraine — Russian intelligence is not an all-powerful bogeyman lurking beneath every bed or hiding in every dark closet.

But they are certainly no buffoons. Underestimating the heirs to the Soviet KGB would be a grave mistake — especially when you walk into the trap yourself. That’s the conclusion of Peter Strzok, a former deputy head of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division.

“The traditional Russian ability to conduct intelligence operations — whether that’s recruiting sources within a foreign intelligence service, conducting disinformation or perception management type activities — is excellent, world-class,” he said.

Strzok’s first exposure to Russia came long before the FBI. As a college student in the Cold War era, Peter had already immersed himself in books on Karl Marx, communist ideology, and the rise of the Soviet Union, all part of the core curriculum at Georgetown University.

To the sound of live artillery fire, while he was training as a reserve officer and artilleryman, he prepared for a direct military confrontation with the Soviets to defend NATO if WW3 erupted.

Share

That early exposure carried over into a 22-year FBI career, during which Strzok came to know Russian intelligence tradecraft firsthand. It was then that he concluded: Russian spies can be very good when they want to be.

But he isn’t convinced this understanding still exists at the top of today’s FBI.

The current FBI director, Kash Patel, is planning a trip to Moscow and St. Petersburg in mid-October, Politico reported last week. The agenda or official reasons for such a visit remain unclear, as the FBI did not reply to The Counteroffensive media inquiry.

The last time the FBI director traveled to Russia was more than a decade ago, before Russia invaded Ukraine for the first time and before it interfered in the U.S. elections in 2016, which put an extra strain on relationships between Moscow and Washington. What is even more concerning is that the visit can take place just before the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3.

Kash Patel already has quite a controversial history of interactions with Russia. He made headlines last February after being paid $25,000 for participating in a movie by a Kremlin-linked film company, ‘Global Tree Pictures,’ which is run by a Russian-American, Igor Lopatonok. The filmmaker has also worked on a pro-Russian campaign backed by a fund created by Putin.

Patel was paid by Russians to participate in a documentary about veterans of the first Trump administration allegedly falling victim to a conspiracy that “destroyed their lives.”

“Whether Patel is simply being opportunistic — trying to curry favor and gain power — or whether he genuinely believes these things, taken together, I wouldn’t want someone like that going into Russia,” reflected Strzok.

If Patel’s visit goes ahead, it will broaden the range of recent high-level contact with Moscow and might become another sign of easing Russia’s isolation on the world stage, rather than remaining a pariah state.

“In the best-case scenario, he wants to ask for their help tracking down Russian cyber actors. He wants to ask them not to engage in election interference…I suspect there will be a lot of wining and dining, prestigious private tours of the Hermitage, jet skis, helicopter rides — all the finer things that Russians know how to leverage very well,” said Strzok.

The first step to addressing a threat is to explore it honestly. But Patel has dismissed as the “Russiagate hoax” what the intelligence community concluded was Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections.

“In 2017/18, I proved the Steele Dossier was fictitious intelligence, weaponized by corrupt FBI officials to deceive a federal judge and unlawfully spy on then presidential candidate Trump’s campaign — all paid for by his opponent,” he said.

Peter Strzok recognizes the threat. He played a key role in the early stages of the FBI’s investigation into Russian meddling as the senior agent. Before that, he worked on a network of Russian sleeper agents, ultimately arrested in 2010.

However, in 2018 Strzok was fired — not because of some failed investigation or a lack of expertise. He was dismissed for sending messages criticizing Trump to his colleague Lisa Page.

Since then, Strzok has gotten into academia, teaching counterintelligence and national security to undergrads at his alma mater, Georgetown University. He now sometimes dedicates his time to photography or writing fiction.

Always clean-shaven during his FBI years, Strzok has even grown a beard now streaked with gray. When asked how much of that gray was thanks to Russia, he smiled: “Probably quite a bit.”

Trying to understand the main players in Russian intelligence, one is most likely to encounter three main agencies.

The GRU is Russia’s military intelligence service, which also organizes major covert operations and many of Moscow’s most significant cyberattacks. It is widely believed to have been behind the poisoning of the former GRU colonel Sergei and his daughter Yulia Skripal, as well as the hack of the Democratic National Committee ahead of the 2016 U.S. election.

The SVR is Russia’s classic foreign intelligence service, responsible for running the network of deep-cover ‘illegals’ in the United States, one of the major cases Strzok helped investigate.

The FSB is widely regarded as the principal successor to the KGB after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It combines a broad range of responsibilities, including domestic security, counterterrorism, and certain foreign intelligence and covert operations.

It’s with the FSB that Patel will likely meet. But unlike the traditionally-apolitical FBI, the FSB has long been deeply connected with political players inside the government.

“Intelligence as an idea and as an activity is woven into Russian foreign policy and state activity in a way that doesn’t exist in the West and certainly not in the United States,” Strzok concluded.

Strzok is convinced that Patel, and anyone traveling with him, would be placed under “a microscope” throughout the visit. They could be monitored everywhere: hotel rooms may be bugged and under video surveillance, phone calls, text messages and emails intercepted.

“I would hope the people around Patel are savvy enough to say, ‘Look, boss, leave your work phone behind. We’ll give you a burner. Leave your personal devices at home,” Strzok shared. “Can they avoid hopping on the phone and posting something to their Instagram or sending something on a Signal chat? I don’t know.”

It’s not new for intelligence and security services (even those of adversarial states) to maintain at least minimal channels of communication, according to Strzok. You never know when you’ll have to play that card — in response to a shared terrorist or cyber threat.

One of the last publicly known instances of cooperation between the FBI and the FSB came before the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. The attack was carried out by two ethnic Chechens, killing three people and injuring more than 500. It later emerged that Russian authorities had warned the U.S. about one of the future attackers two years before the bombing, sharing intelligence with Washington.

In the last decade relations between the FBI and Russia’s FSB have been especially strained and remain purely pragmatic. Neither side trusts the other.

So, a physical visit to the FSB definitely adds an extra layer of danger. Hacking a device, for example, is simpler if you can get physical access to it, Strzok said.

“Even if you go in thinking, ‘Okay, I know the Russians are dangerous. I know they’re going to try to manipulate me,’ there are still countless vulnerabilities they can — and, in my view, will — try to exploit,” he said.

Moreover, if Russian intelligence were to obtain Patel’s DNA, it could reveal physiological vulnerabilities that might later be exploited, like a predisposition to certain diseases or previously unknown family ties.

That concern is one reason why European leaders, including French President Macron and former German Chancellor Scholz, reportedly refused to take COVID-19 PCR tests while in Russia in 2022. They feared that their biological samples could be handed over to the FSB.

“There are stories about going back into the Cold War where people were trying to break into the plumbing to get the stool of the person…[If Kash Patel] got a health condition trying to hide, could this show up potentially through either your feces, saliva or anything else that they could get?” Strzok said.

Strzok noted that Patel lacks experience in federal law enforcement, despite becoming the FBI Director. That’s why even if he wanted to be cautious enough, “If you’re not particularly bright or diligent to begin with, your best effort simply won’t be as good as the best effort of someone at the 50th percentile,” Strzok said.

Moscow and St. Petersburg are known for exclusive, invitation-only parties where expensive liquor flows freely. For Kash Patel, this presents yet another vulnerability for compromise.

The FBI director had engaged in “excessive drinking,” behavior that reportedly concerned some of his colleagues, The Atlantic previously reported. Patel denied the allegations. Though in February last year, a video of the FBI director exuberantly celebrating the U.S. hockey team’s victory at the Winter Olympics went viral.

“[Patel is] clearly somebody, in my opinion, who has a desire for sort of luxury things with the base of that is a little bit of an ego need to feel accepted, to feel like he is in a place of prominence and a place of both prestige and entitlement that translate to an image of value,” Strzok said.

Those are the vulnerabilities that the FSB can quickly catch and later weaponize against the FBI head.

It remains unknown whether Patel will meet with Putin or any other high-ranking Russian officials. However, it is already clear that the Kremlin will take any opportunity to show that Russia is not some outcast state; it still ‘counts’ among the world’s major players, hosting foreign dignitaries eager to shake hands with Russians and flash diplomatic smiles.

“They’re going to highlight that and say, “See? Look, we belong. We’re accepted by members of the international community. We aren’t doing anything wrong…” Russians are extraordinarily good at playing that up and maximizing its PR value,” Strzok said.

At this very moment the Kremlin might be popping champagne. Each new meeting creates legitimacy, another propaganda victory for Moscow. Each foreign leader’s visit silently papers over the atrocities Russia is committing daily in Ukraine.

If Patel goes to Russia as planned, every handshake he takes will be covered in blood.

Interested in more coverage about intelligence work? Take a look at these stories:

Is Russia opening a new front in Belarus?

A Ukrainian nuclear program: Could it be done?

Ukrainian sabotage groups operating behind Russian lines

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By Myroslava Tanska-Vikulova

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

RUSSIA AND NORTH KOREA COMPLETING SUSPECTED JOINT WAR SUPPLY ROUTE: Russia and North Korea are finalizing construction of a road bridge over the Tumen River, which will be the first road connection between the two countries. Despite official statements about trade and tourism, an investigation by Truth Hounds for The Guardian reveals that the bridge, costing over $100 million, is being built to covertly supply weapons for the war against Ukraine.

The choice of a road bridge over a railway is driven by security concerns: trucks are much harder to identify and track via satellite.

U.S. TO SPREAD OUT $400 MLN IN UKRAINE AID UNTIL 2029: The U.S. Department of Defense has developed a plan under which $400 million in Ukraine aid will be spread out to last until the end of Trump’s term in office, with the final deliveries to be completed only in 2029, Reuters reports. The slow pace of funding is causing outrage among U.S. lawmakers, as Kyiv needs weapons immediately.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday, where he will press for the urgent delivery of air defense systems and the conclusion of a drone agreement. Following the talks at the White House, the President of Ukraine will visit the Capitol to meet with U.S. senators.

UKRAINE IS PRODUCING DRONES FASTER THAN THE U.S.: In 2026, Ukraine will produce 6–7 million first-person-view attack drones (500,000 per month), while a special U.S. program worth $1.1 billion calls for the purchase of only 200,000 drones by early 2027, according to Travis Metz, who runs the Pentagon’s Drone Dominance program.

The main obstacles for the U.S. have been a shortage of semiconductors and a strict ban on the use of Chinese components. To bridge the gap and learn from Ukraine’s experience, the Pentagon is engaging Ukrainian manufacturers, who are already establishing joint ventures in the U.S.

KAZAKHSTAN FORCED TO CUT OIL PRODUCTION AFTER DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIA: Due to the shutdown of a key maritime terminal in the Black Sea following a drone attack, Kazakhstan reduced its daily oil production by more than 50%, to 1 million barrels. For a country that ranks among the world’s top 10 crude oil suppliers, this was a serious blow that further destabilized the global market amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has once again laid bare Astana’s reliance on Russia for exporting its oil.

On Monday, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy noted that, following a week-long forced shutdown, operations at the terminal and oil shipments have now resumed.

CAT OF CONFLICT:

This is Rudia, Myroslava’s in-laws cat. She’s enjoying her life after a close call with death, while her little one is being taken care of.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Mariana

Russia struck a Kyiv military training ground… U.S. used Ukraine-tested drone in Iran… Day 9 of protests in Ukraine…

Author’s Note:

Sometimes illnesses strike so suddenly that it’s impossible to prepare for them. This is especially difficult during war when places like medicine warehouses come under attack, supply chains are disrupted, and attacks on infrastructure leave the country without power for hours on end.

Support our team so that stories like these can reach a wider audience, ensuring that the world doesn’t forget or downplay the impact of this war.

Get Full Access!

Tip Jar!

OUR LEAD STORY:

KYIV, Ukraine — When I looked at the clock, it was 5 a.m. I had spent the last four hours trying unsuccessfully to get my 6-year-old daughter Daria back to sleep after she woke me up from vomiting.

She hadn’t been feeling well since the night before. She refused to eat, spent a long time lying in bed — something she had never done before — and fell asleep early without her usual bedtime story. I was concerned, but I attributed it to her being tired after another sleepless night due to the latest Russian shelling.

I wrung out the stinking rag to wipe up another batch of vomit on the floor next to the bed. Just a couple of hours earlier, I had tried to change the sheets that now lay in the corner, only for them to get dirty again almost immediately.

I was certain that something unusual was happening. And just a few hours later, I would be told that I wasn’t the only one. In fact, the pediatric gastroenterology unit at the children’s clinic was overflowing with kids exhibiting similar symptoms.

A week ago, a similar situation unfolded across the United States, hit by a wave of intestinal illnesses caused by a microscopic parasite. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), nearly 7,000 people in the U.S. may have been infected with this pathogen.

The outbreak has spread to 34 states, with Michigan being hit hardest, where 3,700 cases have been recorded. Taco Bell voluntarily removed certain ingredients and replaced them within 24 hours in some states, and Americans are being cautious about eating greens at other cafes and restaurants.

For Ukraine, however, such outbreaks are nothing new. They occur periodically, though the causes are far less peaceful and obvious.

According to the CDC, the incidence of intestinal infections in Ukraine accounted for 41.8 percent of all infectious diseases in January 2026, when Russian attacks severely damaged Ukraine’s power grid and left most regions without electricity. This winter, the Ministry of Health’s Public Health Center explicitly cited power outages caused by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, as the main reason for these statistics.

Maintaining proper refrigeration temperatures becomes difficult or even impossible when the power supply is cut off. Municipal sewage treatment plants, which are supposed to purify water, cease to function amidst power outages, creating the risk of untreated sewage being discharged directly into the environment.

Share

I have a fairly long history of my own health issues, including cancer and chronic illnesses, which is why every time Daria gets sick, it triggers a wave of anxiety in me. She had a cold, chickenpox, and the flu, but I’m lucky she really isn’t prone to getting sick. She eats quite well, and almost never complains of any pain.

Last winter, she began to understand for the first time what an air raid siren really was, and to perceive it as more than just a roaring alarm that occurs from time to time. Only recently did she put together the pattern of the lights going out after big attacks.

Attacks on energy infrastructure reached a record scale this winter, surpassing levels seen since the start of the full-scale war. Between 2022 and 2024, Russia launched approximately 2,800 missiles and drones at Ukraine’s energy sector. That number rose to 12,800 between 2025 and early 2026 alone.

In January 2026, Russian strikes knocked out more than half the country’s power generation capacity. In Kyiv and many other regions, that meant residents went without electricity for 14 to 16 hours a day, which is more than half a day.

I didn’t realize that long power outages, which sometimes lasted more than 20 hours a day, could cause water treatment plants to malfunction. In fact, I’m not even sure if I realized that water treatment plants need electricity, or that they don’t have backup power sources.

The capital’s drinking water comes from two stations: the Desnianska plant and the Dniprovska plant. The water is drawn into the system through intake troughs and pipelines. It then goes into settling tanks and rapid filters.

At the other end of the system is the Bortnytska Aeration Station, which is the only large wastewater treatment complex serving Kyiv and the surrounding region. It serves roughly 4 million people and processes up to 2 million cubic meters of sewage a day. The biological stage uses bacteria that need a constant supply of oxygen. This oxygen is pumped in by electric compressors. If the power is cut, the compressors stop. The bacteria that clean the sewage die off and untreated waste may be discharged into the environment.

I’m not sure when I first heard about possible problems with water. Just to be safe, though, I switched the water my family used for brushing their teeth to bottled water.

In any case, my daughter wasn’t spared. One day, she came home from preschool feeling weak. She refused to eat, went to lie down, and fell asleep early. Then, during the night, she woke up with a fever and vomiting.

I quickly realized that this was not an ordinary case of food poisoning. I tried to give Daria medication, but it didn’t stay in her stomach for long. I promptly took her to a pediatrician, who referred us to the gastroenterology unit at the hospital.

The hardest part about children’s hospitals is hearing the other children cry. The unit where I was staying had very thin walls and wooden doors leading to the patient and treatment rooms.

Terrifying screams came from behind the door — the kind of crying that triggers our primal instincts to protect.

Kids don’t understand what’s happening to them, and they’re afraid of needles. They find themselves in unfamiliar places with strangers trying to administer a shot, set up an IV, or give them unpleasant-tasting medicine. No surprise they’re screaming.

Daria was very weak, yet fully aware of her surroundings. She was brave and isn’t afraid of needles, but she is still a child who moves around a lot, even when she’s weak.

The IV needle, which was supposed to deliver glucose to her frail body to prevent her from going hungry or becoming dehydrated, shifted due to her squirming. This caused fluid to leak outside the vein. Her arm was so swollen that the nurse had to cut open her sweater to replace the IV.

In the American outbreak, CDC data shows that the youngest confirmed patient is two years old. Physicians are taking pediatric cases seriously enough that clinical guidance was published for pediatricians in the middle of the outbreak, urging them to maintain a low threshold for suspecting Cyclospora in any child with watery diarrhea that lingers or recurs rather than writing it off as an ordinary stomach bug.

Daria recovered quickly after she was diagnosed with rotavirus. The clinic and illness made her review the rule about washing her hands before meals and after coming in from outside, and take it more seriously.

No one knows when a situation like the one in the U.S. will end or happen again. The investigation is still ongoing. On July 17, 2026, the CDC and the FDA identified the likely source as shredded iceberg lettuce.

The company voluntarily recalled the lettuce from the U.S. market after epidemiological and traceback data confirmed that it was contaminated with Cyclospora and was making people sick. Since then, no new positive product samples have been found, suggesting that the contaminated supply chain may have been cut off.

However, the outbreak itself hasn’t ended, and the CDC’s official cyclosporiasis season doesn’t end until August 31.

Even less is known about the sneaky ways in which a peaceful, developed city can change when war comes.

Beyond sheltering and following all safety rules, I don’t know how to protect my child or myself from the hardships that are all too common during wartime. I’m sorry her generation is forced to endure such difficult circumstances at a young age.

“Mom, the cat is throwing up,” Daria said the other day. “Maybe he needs to wash his paws before eating, too?”

Interested in more coverage about health during wartime? Take a look at these stories:

War ruined my lifesaving medicine

Surge of childhood diabetes due to wartime stress

Ukraine’s HIV patients face crisis: Trump aid halt

Ukraine’s pioneering virtual reality PTSD therapy

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By: Oleksandra Poda

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

RUSSIA STRUCK A KYIV MILITARY TRAINING GROUND: On the afternoon of July 24, Russia launched a ballistic missile strike on a private military training ground in the Bucha district in the Kyiv region, where an exhibition of defense weaponry was taking place. A large number of representatives from the domestic and foreign defense industry had gathered at the site. As a result of two ballistic missile strikes, at least 10 people were killed, and at least dozens were injured to varying degrees. Twenty-seven private homes and 44 vehicles were damaged.

Moscow publicly claimed responsibility for the strike, stating that it deliberately targeted the exhibition where drones used to strike civilian targets within Russia were being demonstrated.

U.S. USED UKRAINE-TESTED DRONE IN IRAN: This week, for the first time during the conflict with Iran, the U.S. successfully deployed the Merops anti-drone interception system to destroy an Iranian Shahed drone. This system has been deployed in Ukraine since June 2024 against Russian versions of the Shahed.

Merops is an interceptor drone costing about $15,000 per unit (compared to $30,000-$50,000 for a Shahed). The system uses artificial intelligence for navigation and autonomous interception.

The U.S. Army has purchased 13,000 Merops units and deployed them at several locations throughout the region, including areas with no U.S. personnel.

DAY 9 OF PROTESTS IN UKRAINE: On July 24, Ukrainians took to the streets again in Kyiv and other cities, demanding that Mykhailo Fedorov be reinstated as defense minister. On July 22, Zelenskyy had already partially met their demands by dismissing Commander-in-Chief Syrsky and appointing General Drapaty to replace him.

Zelenskyy had previously stated that he had offered Fedorov a “prominent position in the government” in the technology sector, but Fedorov declined, believing that it would be impossible to implement his reforms in any other role.

CAT OF CONFLICT

Compot the cat has strong opinions about Justin Bieber performing for the World Cup final.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Oleksandra

Ukraine's new commander-in-chief takes office… Putin refuses to negotiate until he takes control of Donbas… Former commander-in-chief Syrsky published a farewell speech… Ukraine's unmanned systems forces have struck 13 Russian vessels… 37% rise in civilian casualties in Ukraine…

OUR LEAD STORY:

It’s around 11 p.m in a village house packed with several servicemen somewhere in the Dnipropetrovsk region, tens of kilometers from the frontline. Half-awake, Oleksii* breathes in the cool night air and fumbles for his thermal underwear, though only a few hours earlier his face had been baking under the summer sun. The drones and other equipment are already packed into the vehicle. All that’s left is for him to jump into the car with his comrades and head to the launch site.

There, illuminated only by a red light, they will secure the explosive payload. They will put on their tactical headsets to check whether the engine is working properly, and send the drone toward Russian military targets.

“You literally screwed that bomb onto the drone yourself. You picked up a screwdriver, attached it, and then it went out and struck its target,” Oleskii shared with unconcealed excitement.

Oleksii is one of the soldiers behind Ukraine’s successful mid-range attacks, hitting 200 km deep inside Russian positions past the frontline. The very strikes, along with deep strikes, that are leading the world to believe the tides are changing in Ukraine’s favor.

But on July 15, Zelenskyy dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who had overseen the recent expansion of Ukraine’s mid-range strike operations in Crimea and across occupied southern Ukraine.

Thousands of protesters began chanting outside of Zelenskyy’s office, appalled by the decision to dismiss who they believed was a highly effective defense minister. Almost week after Fedorov’s dismissal, Zelenskyy met one of the protesters’ central demands by removing the controversial Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi. But the call to return the former Minister of Defense remains unaddressed.

Zelesnkyy has since offered Fedorov multiple other positions, but he has turned them down, citing that the only way for him to make a profound impact in the fight against Russia is within the Ministry of Defense. Now, Ukrainian society is left wondering whether the momentum behind Ukraine’s mid-range strikes will continue at this scale.

Middle strikes have demonstrated that countries with fewer resources can gain a tactical advantage through asymmetric solutions. Any tactic or technology that allows Ukraine to move closer to victory is absolutely critical in a war against one of the world’s most powerful, highly centralized militaries with effectively unlimited manpower.

Share

Many of Oleksii’s comrades were disheartened by the cabinet reshuffle. His brigade of the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), to which he belongs, alongside other units of the USF, has been behind some of the country’s most consequential drone operations.

But, Oleksii says, the concern was never about Fedorov personally. What unsettled many in the military was the lack of a clear explanation for the sweeping changes at the Ministry of Defense — arguably Ukraine’s most important institution amid a full-scale war.

“Fedorov’s dismissal would not cause middle strikes to disappear overnight. Most units and military commanders recognize them as an effective capability,” said Oleksii. “But would they have been scaled at the same pace without the minister’s support? I reckon they would not. And the issue isn’t just quantity. The ministry also planned to introduce competitive procurement, which would reduce the cost of existing platforms.”

Oleksii no longer remembers which reason ultimately convinced him to join the military — after all, it has been two and a half years since he enlisted. Back then he was still a university student and below the draft age of 25. However, Oleksii was already looking for ways to volunteer, at times fearing that if he further procrastinated the decision, he would change his mind about volunteering entirely.

This is how he ended up in various military positions connected with radio intelligence or operational planning until he was moved to air reconnaissance of the middle strikes this January. Oleksii loves that, in his current role, he can see the direct results of his work — not on paper or in words, sometimes simply by watching footage of a Russian target being destroyed.

“[Launching the drone] sounds like a Shahed. It’s incredibly loud, so we wear the headset to protect our ears,” he said.

Ukraine began developing its mid-range strike capabilities in earnest only in the fall of 2025, even though Russia had been investing in them much earlier. Explanations for why Kyiv did not scale up the effort sooner vary — from the lack of sufficiently capable drones on the market at the time to a lack of interest from the General Staff.

To put it simply, middle strikes are strikes that Ukraine launches at a distance of 30–200 km (20–120 miles). It is precisely in this territory that Russia has concentrated much of the critical infrastructure needed to sustain its occupation and advance, including air defense systems, electronic warfare assets, and command and logistics hubs.

Middle strikes often use Starlink connectivity, which remains available in occupied Ukrainian territories but not in Russia (Fedorov is largely responsible for cutting off Russian Starlink access). As a result, operators can steer drones onto their targets in real time and immediately verify the damage after impact.

Deep strikes, on the other hand, are generally directed at high-value strategic targets deep inside Russia and in Moscow. They are designed to erode Russia’s economic capacity, such as oil refineries, and are typically flown to pre-programmed GPS coordinates.

“We like it because once the mission is done, we don’t have to wait for the aircraft to reach the target,” Oleksii said. “We also operate from much farther back — 40 to 50 kilometers from the front line. That’s ideal. You drive out, do the job, and twenty minutes later you’re back home asleep.”

Recently, Oleksii and his comrades moved from a village to a city in the Dnipropetrovsk region. It gives him a sense of belonging to civilization rather than being “stuck” in the middle of nowhere.

Today, Oleksii and his comrades operate drones at ranges of up to 240 kilometers, striking Russian repair facilities, ammunition depots, and other fixed military targets around Berdiansk and Mariupol.

“There was this abandoned school where Russian operators of Molniya [drones] had set up their position. We bombed the two exits to trap them inside,” Oleksii said. “I’m not sure we killed everyone in there. But that position never operated again.”

What had earlier been conducted by separate units became, in May, a more systematic priority for Kyiv. This was when Ukraine’s Defense Ministry launched ‘Logistics Lockdown,’ a program aimed at scaling up its middle strike capabilities, allocating 5 billion hryvnias ($111 million) to frontline units to procure necessary equipment.

The funding was to be distributed based on units’ ePoints rankings — a digital incentive system introduced by Fedorov under which military units earn points for destroying Russian personnel and equipment and can redeem them for the equipment they need.

The most visible consequences of this program include a fuel crisis in occupied Crimea and bringing the highway linking Crimea, occupied Donbas, and Russia under sustained fire control, one of the Kremlin’s most critical military supply routes.

Kyiv has also launched its campaign against Russia’s shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov, within the range of middle strikes, targeting more than 100 vessels in an eight-day span this July. The operation is already being described as one of the largest anti-shipping campaigns in modern history, surpassing the pace of vessel losses seen during the Iran–Iraq Tanker War of the 1980s.

Roman Pohorilyi, a military analyst and a co-founder of DeepState, an OSINT project tracking battlefield changes, says that with middle strikes, Ukraine can establish fire control over Russian logistics.

“If the middle strikes are deployed at scale, within a radius of roughly 100 kilometers, we’ll be able to disrupt virtually any movement, as well as target air defense systems, EW and similar installations. That also extends to logistics — the movement of weapons, supplies, and personnel to the front,” he said.

In Pohorilyi’s view, the newly-appointed acting minister, Yevhenii Khmara, is technically capable of carrying on his predecessor’s work. He comes from the Security Service of Ukraine’s Special Operations Center ‘A’ — one of the country’s most effective military formations. Under ideal circumstances, and if he builds on the team’s existing groundwork, the program could continue to develop, Pohorilyi said.

“But when the founder of the entire effort, the person who shaped its vision, is at the helm, that’s when it works best,” he added.

Khmara met with the newly appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces today, stating that the development of both middle- and deep-strike capabilities would remain one of the key priorities.

As of now, Russia lacks effective countermeasures to defend its forces against Ukrainian mid-range strikes. Weapons development and emerging technologies analyst Bohdan Dolintse says that one of the few reasons Russians are ineffective at mid-range drone downing is that they do not have enough cheap air defense capabilities to cover all the occupied territories.

Dolintse agrees that Ukraine’s rapid expansion of middle-strike capabilities is likely to continue, even under new leadership. According to him, the Ministry of Defense was the institution that just sped up its development, but it is the battlefield itself that drives technological innovation.

“When political leadership changes at a ministry, it is common for deputy ministers to be replaced as well. Those reshuffles often cascade down, bringing new department heads and new teams. At the same time, the core group of civil servants responsible for developing and implementing reforms and legislation has largely remained in place,” Dolintse said.

When former Defense Minister Fedorov was dismissed, Oleksii was in Kyiv, preparing to take up the position at the ministry “to help launch even more bombs at Russia.” For two months, he was going through bureaucratic procedures to move from the combat zone to the capital and “become more effective.” However, this process stopped at the finish line, when Fedorov left office.

Oleksii joined protests outside the Presidential Office, despite the fact that, under orders from then–Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, some service members who had taken part in the demonstrations had reportedly faced consequences.

For now, Oleksii’s future remains just as uncertain as the fate of the Defense Minister’s seat.

*Oleksii’s name was changed for security reasons.

Interested in more coverage about recent political and military reshuffles? Take a look at these stories:

NEWSFLASH: Zelenskyy dismisses Defense Minister

The Ukrainian work-protest balance

NEWSLASH: Zelenskyy dismisses army chief after public pressure

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By Kateryna Antonenko and Oleksandra Poda

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

UKRAINE’S NEW COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF TAKES OFFICE: On July 22, Major General Mykhailo Drapatiy announced that he had assumed the duties of Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

A career military officer, Drapatyi first saw combat in 2014 when Russia-backed separatists launched an offensive in eastern Ukraine and has been serving ever since. At the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, he commanded the Southern Operational Group and directed the defense of Kryvyi Rih, one of the early battles in which Ukrainian forces successfully halted a Russian advance. He later led the group during the liberation of the right bank of the Kherson region.

PUTIN REFUSES TO NEGOTIATE UNTIL HE TAKES CONTROL OF DONBAS: According to Bloomberg’s sources, Russia is prepared to return to negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine only after Putin establishes control over the entire Donetsk region. The Russian Ministry of Defense has assured Putin that it will establish full control by the end of 2026. However, many military leaders consider this plan unrealistic, predicting that reaching this goal will only be possible by 2027. Furthermore, the Kremlin no longer considers returning the occupied territories to Ukraine and insists on retaining the captured areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions as buffer zones. The Kremlin responded to Bloomberg’s reporting, calling it “speculation.”

Despite these statements, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in the Philippines to discuss negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.

FORMER COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF SYRSKY PUBLISHED A FAREWELL SPEECH: Syrsky thanked the soldiers for their service and said that under his command, 743 square kilometers had been liberated. “I am handing over to my successor an army that is not only holding its ground but is also on the offensive—with initiative, with structure, and with people who know how to defeat the enemy. And I sincerely hope that this offensive will continue. Everything is in place for that,” he said.

UKRAINE’S UNMANNED SYSTEMS FORCES HAVE STRUCK 13 RUSSIAN VESSELS: In the Black and Azov Seas over the past 48 hours, Ukraine has struck over a dozen Russian vessels. In addition, strikes on Wildberries’ logistics warehouses in the Moscow region are continuing. A large-scale fire caused by drone strikes is also ongoing at logistics warehouses across other Russian regions. This comes as Ukraine is increasing attacks on Russian vessels.

37% RISE IN CIVILIAN CASUALTIES IN UKRAINE: The number of civilian casualties has risen by 37% compared to the same period last year, according to the UN mission, 1,396 civilian deaths and 7,978 civilian injuries were documented from January through June. The head of the UN Human Rights Mission in Ukraine, emphasized that these figures are nearly double those for the first half of 2024.

The main reason for the rise in casualties is the intensification of Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities far from the front lines.

CAT OF CONFLICT:

Mariana felt super jealous of this cat, who lives in her apartment building and gets to sleep peacefully with his pink plush turtle instead of waking up at 4 a.m. to finish writing this story. A fun fact: all her neighbors are in love with this cuddly kitten and even take him to a vet from time to time!

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Mariana

OUR LEAD STORY:

On July 21, Zelenskyy dismissed Oleksandr Syrskyi from his post as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — presumably listening to thousands of protesters’ requests to do so. This decision came on the sixth day of protests sparked by the dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, as many Ukrainians feared post-Soviet military thinking had prevailed over modern warfare.

Zelenskyy spent the days following this reshuffle talking with Ukrainian commanders, and just appointed a new Commander-in-Chief…

Read more

Third day of protests in Ukraine… Ukraine’s strikes on russian oil hit U.S. consumers… Hungary blocks Ukraine’s EU accession, again… The majority of Poles oppose accepting Ukrainian refugees…

Editor’s Note:

Today, we’re publishing this story so you can enjoy the result of your collective choice. We recently asked you which article you’d most like to read. By a narrow margin, you chose the article about how women in Ukraine are reshaping male-dominated professions.

We want to continue creating content that you choose. Since our media exists thanks to your support, the best way to influence future topics and help us grow is to renew your subscription.

Get Full Access!

Tip Jar!

OUR LEAD STORY:

KYIV, Ukraine — “Is anyone there?” Natalia heard a deep male voice. She could only see the stranger’s boots peeking out from under the hood of the red sedan. Still, she knew exactly how the conversation would unfold. She had replayed it hundreds of times over the past year.

“Yes, how can I help you?” She stepped out from behind the car to greet the customer.

His face showed confusion as he looked around and asked, “Is there a mechanic here?”

“Yes, how can I help you?” Natalia continued the conversation patiently, although she was growing irritated. She knew what would be said next.

“Isn’t there a male mechanic?” the man asked, confirming her prediction.

Natalia Pavliy has worked at an auto repair shop for most of her life. She first helped her father as a child and then her husband. Since her husband joined the military, she has taken on most of his work. Prejudice from new clients is an unavoidable part of her job.

In July 2026, about 1,500 Ukrainian women had completed a six-month retraining program to work in jobs once thought to be for men only, a figure that likely understates the real number of women now qualified for this kind of work.

Full-scale war forced hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian men to leave civilian life and serve on the front lines. A large portion of the population also fled the country. This labor void had to be filled, causing 64 percent of Ukrainian companies to hire women for traditionally “male” positions.

It was not always like that. In 1993, the Ministry of Health officially banned women from approximately 450 occupations deemed “hazardous,” ranging from foundry work and metallurgy to operating locomotives and subways, driving long-haul trucks, and firefighting.

The list of prohibited industries was not repealed until 2017, yet women remained underrepresented in these fields despite the extremely high demand for labor in Ukraine four years later; in 2021, approximately one third of people employed in agriculture, industry, transportation, and warehousing were women. Even as women take on these new roles, they continue to earn significantly less than the men who previously held them — exposing a significant gender pay gap that has only widened during the war.

Natalia grew up without a mother who left the family to start a new life in Europe. Getting involved in her father’s business and learning about traditionally male pursuits were part of her life from childhood on.

“It’s not that I didn’t want to play with dolls, dress up as a princess, or have tea parties. It’s just that I had no other choice,” Natalia said. “It was unusual for a man to raise his daughter. Usually, when the mother wasn’t around, grandmothers or other women in the family took care of that. But I was with my father, so I spent hours at his auto repair shop for as long as I can remember.”

During the war, the government built formal infrastructure, including free retraining programs like Reskilling Ukraine, training vouchers and subsidies of roughly 30,000 UAH (about $670) for employers who hire women after they complete training.

Natalia did not have access to these resources; she learned the trade the old way, standing next to her father.

As early as the third grade, Natalia was taking apart a carburetor with her father and doing some repairs on her own. “I could have easily replaced a flat tire if I’d had the strength to lift the tire.”

She learned to identify some problems by the sound they made. Sometimes, when Natalia was driving with her dad on the highway, they would play a game. He would say, “Do you hear that knocking sound? What do you think it is?” and she had to guess.

Despite being so involved in her father’s work, Natalia never wanted to become a mechanic, so she studied to become a fashion designer instead.

“I didn’t even get my driver’s license. As far as I was concerned, only men were supposed to drive,” said Natalia. “Now I think it’s strange because I’ve known a lot about cars my whole life. But I didn’t realize the extent that could be a serious part of my life.”

In 2024, Natalia’s husband joined the military. At first, he simply closed his auto repair shop, but just two months later, he realized how important such a service was in a city near the front lines. The couple then reopened the shop in Kharkiv under Natalia’s leadership.

“I had been out of work for a while back then; I left my last job because of problems with my pay, and my husband suggested I try working at his auto repair shop,” Natalia said.

Natalia’s situation was not unusual; the percentage of women among Ukraine’s registered unemployed has climbed from 55 to 81 percent since the full-scale invasion, according to Stanislav Pavlenko, Deputy Director of the State Employment Center. This jump is partly due to men avoiding official employment to evade mobilization and partly due to entire sectors of the economy losing their workforce overnight.

Natalia was at a loss as to how to approach the new venture. She wasn’t sure she could handle it because until then she had only helped men — her husband and her father — and worked behind the scenes. Now she had to take matters into her own hands.

On the first day the service resumed under Natalia’s leadership, she had no customers. “I knew days like this were normal, especially since the service hadn’t operated for a long time. Even our old customers didn’t know we were open again. But I felt as if everything had fallen apart because of me.”

On the way home, she burst into tears while talking to her husband. She felt guilty for bothering him with trivial matters while he was on duty, but he reassured her. “It’s okay if things don’t work out. After all, it’s just a job. You can always find another one. But don’t doubt yourself, because you’ve spent your whole life at the auto repair shop,” he said.

Her anxiety wasn’t without reason. Among all candidates for cash-in-transit courier roles, only 1.3% of submitted resumes are from women.

“Now I realize it [Natalia’s anxiety] didn’t make much sense because demand is actually high. A lot of military personnel are getting their vehicles repaired, and my old customers have come back because they know how I work,” Natalia said.

From January to October 2025, women registered more than 153,000 new sole proprietorships nationwide, accounting for 61 percent of all new businesses. Over the past four years, the number of legal entities with a female CEO has increased by 75 percent.

According to the State Employment Service, women most frequently choose careers as woodworking machine operators, boiler room operators, tractor drivers, trolleybus drivers, forklift drivers, and repair mechanics within the framework of the official retraining program.

This pattern is not new. During World War II, for example, women in the U.S. workforce increased as men left for the front. Roughly six million women entered the workforce to support the war effort. Before the war, women made up only 1 percent of the American aircraft industry. By 1943, they accounted for 65 times more of it.

However, once the war ended, the percentage of working women dropped to almost pre-war levels within the next year as men returned and reclaimed the jobs that women had been trained to do.

“Unfortunately, many men have died and many women have left Ukraine and are unlikely to return. I don’t think women will lose their jobs in the future,” said Natalia.

Demographers project that Ukraine will emerge from the war with approximately 90 men for every 100 women. Among people of reproductive age, however, the ratio may reverse, with men outnumbering women, as those who fled abroad may choose not to return.

At the same time, Ukrainian women bear the disproportionate burden of unpaid household labor, raising children largely alone and caring for wounded or missing spouses in addition to their paid work.

“Women aren’t considered good mechanics. I have to work much harder to convince people that I’m qualified, even though I don’t have children yet. I really don’t know how I’d manage if I had kids,” said Natalia.

Nevertheless, she no longer considers auto mechanics to be a male-dominated profession. She reacts with great irritation to such comments.

“If I had a daughter interested in cars, I’d constantly tell her how cool and knowledgeable she is,” Natalia said. “Actually, if I ever have a daughter, she’ll be able to look to me as an example, and it won’t seem strange to her anymore,” she added with a smile.

Interested in more coverage about women’s power? Take a look at these stories:

The women-led indigenous culture of Taiwan

Ukraine’s female partisans train for action behind enemy lines

The Iranian nightmare Ukraine should never see

Editor’s Note:

Today, we’re publishing this story so you can enjoy the result of your collective choice. We recently asked you which article you’d most like to read. By a narrow margin, you chose the article about how women in Ukraine are reshaping male-dominated professions.

We want to continue creating content that you choose. Since our media exists thanks to your support, the best way to influence future topics and help us grow is to renew your subscription.

Get Full Access!

Tip Jar!

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By: Oleksandra Poda

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

THIRD DAY OF PROTESTS IN UKRAINE: On July 16 and 17, Ukrainians took to the streets in Kyiv and other cities following President Zelenskyy’s decision to dismiss Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Protesters plan to gather again on the evening of the 18th.

Initially, the goal of the protests was to support Fedorov, who is credited with revolutionizing drone technology. But now, calls for the resignation of Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are growing louder. Fedorov himself stated that Syrskyi secured his dismissal by issuing an ultimatum to Zelenskyy.

On July 17, the Cabinet of Ministers approved Yevhen Khmara, the former head of the SBU’s Alpha unit, as acting defense minister. Meanwhile, it was reported that military brigades were ordered to record videos expressing support for Syrskyi.

UKRAINE’S STRIKES ON RUSSIAN OIL HIT U.S. CONSUMERS: According to Axios, Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries have caused an economic shock now being experienced by American consumers. After Russia banned diesel exports in response to the strikes, the average price of diesel in the U.S. surpassed $5 per gallon on Thursday.

Ukraine’s drone campaign has contributed to rising global energy prices, which were already high due to the war with Iran.

HUNGARY BLOCKS UKRAINE’S EU ACCESSION, AGAIN: On July 17, at a meeting of the EU Council’s Working Group on Enlargement (COELA), Hungary once again blocked the opening of negotiating clusters 2 and 3 for Ukraine, a crucial step in the EU accession process, but agreed to support negotiating cluster 3 for Moldova. However, other EU member states refused to separate the accession processes of the two countries, so no decision was reached.

Despite lifting Orban’s 17-month veto in May, Hungary, under the leadership of Prime Minister Péter Magyar, is once again blocking Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Magyar claims that opening all clusters simultaneously would send the “wrong signal” to Western Balkan countries that have been waiting for years to join the EU.

The next COELA meeting is scheduled for July 22 — the last one before the summer break. Enlargement negotiations will not resume until September 1.

THE MAJORITY OF POLES OPPOSE ACCEPTING UKRAINIAN REFUGEES: The Center for Public Opinion Research (CBOS), a Polish polling institute, published a poll on July 17 revealing that, for the first time since 2014, 52% of Poles oppose accepting Ukrainian refugees. Support for Ukrainian refugees stood at 94% in 2022, immediately after the start of the full-scale invasion. A separate poll done in June by the Polish IBRiS research institute showed that 59.7% of Poles oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU.

Factors cited include economic fatigue after hosting over a million refugees, competition for jobs and for public services, and a diplomatic dispute over how Ukraine is treating the history of Ukrainian nationalist partisans. The latter dispute led to Zelenskyy being stripped of the Order of the White Eagle in June.

DOG OF WAR:

On Thursday, Oleksandra met this little dog at the protest. When society wants change, not even dogs will stay on the sidelines.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Oleksandra.

Editor’s Note:

Today, Kyiv is buzzing with political uncertainty as protests unfold over the government’s latest shake-up. While headlines will tell you what happened, our team is on the ground talking to the people living through it.

Will you support us?

Subscribe for Free!

Tip Jar

OUR LEAD STORY:

KYIV, Ukraine – Amidst over a thousand protesters in the center of Kyiv, Denys Pidhornyi sat behind a fold-up table, staring intently at his laptop and answering calls as they came in. He was hard at work, as usual, but today, he was working outside of President Zelenskyy’s office.

Denys, 27, believed he had a duty to his work managing projects at an unnamed R&D hardware company, but also a civil duty as a Ukrainian citizen to tell his government that they made a mistake. He brought his own portable power supply, a desk, a computer, food and water.

“I decided yesterday that I had to come, but I also couldn’t skip work. So I packed everything I needed to work and came here.”

Denys has a remote job, which means he can work from anywhere — including smack in the center of a massive protest over Zelenskyy dismissing Minister of Defense Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelenskyy’s decision to replace Fedorov — though we don’t yet know with whom — sparked mass protests across Ukraine on the morning of July 16, with more than 1,000 protesters near the Office of the President in Kyiv.

Ukrainian protesters chant “Fedorov” near the President’s Office in Kyiv on July 16. Video by The Counteroffensive.

Fedorov’s term lasted less than 6 months and was marked by the development of Ukrainian middle- and deep-strike capabilities, as well as the digitalization of various military processes. Many are frustrated that Zelenskyy, without giving an explicit reasoning, dismissed a politician they deemed an effective wartime MoD. This is not just any position, but one making decisions about defense in a country where successful defense can be life or death for everyday citizens.

Despite facing some criticism, including of his army reforms and his failure to impact mobilization methods, on Thursday, a workday, Ukrainians took to the streets in his defense.

While some marched, others brought their laptops and turned one of the biggest protests during the full-scale invasion into a co-working space of sorts — their obligations to their jobs could not trump the pull to fight for a functional democracy in Ukraine.

Denys is very vocal in his support for the now-former Defense Minister.

“As a citizen, I can simply see the difference between how things were before and how they are now,” he said.

The dismissal occurred amid rising tensions between the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Fedorov, who held different views on the course of the war. Mykhailo Fedorov is viewed by the public as a tech innovator who could flip the tables with drones and asymmetric warfare, whereas Oleksandr Syrskyi, the general, is portrayed as an adept of classic warfare means, focused on ground assaults.

During an official press briefing on July 16, while Denys worked remotely outdoors, Fedorov spent a significant chunk of time criticizing Syrskyi, saying that many reforms in the Ministry of Defense were significantly slowed down by the general.

“We found that every initiative we proposed started being blocked... [Syrskyi] is willing to attend private meetings, engage in intrigue, and believe that someone orchestrated a media campaign, instead of recognizing that the problem lies in the actions being taken,” he said.

Fedorov formally announced his resignation on the evening of Wednesday, July 15 which meant that the protest was scheduled for Thursday morning — a work day.

“I can’t stop working, but I also couldn’t miss something like this. So that’s why I’m here today, in this situation,” Denys explained. But, to make life easier for him, he brought a chair, a camping table, a ‘BlueYeti’ reserve power supply, paper cups, and water to hydrate the protesters around him. He even had some bananas on the table that people could take, free of charge.

And, of course, he brought his own cardboard signs, which read, “Working and supporting Fedorov” and “Charge gadget, drink water.”

Denys, a real outdoorsman, purchased his camping table with the hope of going on a trip, but with his current work schedule, this protest turned out to be this table’s first outing.

While the core audience was people in their 20s and 30s, there were also older protesters, as well as parents with their children. Almost everyone was carrying a piece of cardboard with writing that supported Fedorov or criticized Zelenskyy, often riddled with expletives. Even children carried signs, one of which read, “This is my first protest,” and another, “Protest instead of summer break.”

Ukrainians who came to the protests give Fedorov credit for the recent drone operation in Crimea. It disrupted Russian logistics in the occupied peninsula and southern occupied settlements, as well as created a major gas shortage, something unseen before.

Russians also lost access to Starlink connection in the first month after Fedorov’s appointment. Without Startlink, Russians partially lost live control of drones deep inside Ukraine, and Fedorov is largely credited for this Ukrainian win.

He is considered to have been a Defense Minister who sought to tackle corruption in the ministry by introducing tender-based defense procurement to prevent corruption schemes.

Protesters chanting “Made it wrong, now make it right!”. Video by The Counteroffensive.

The idea to haul a portable desk to the center of the city in support of Fedorov was unique to Denys, but simultaneously working and protesting was not. Amongst the crowd was a product designer at First Ukrainian International Bank, Oleksandr Bovlianko, who sat cross-legged in the grass under a shady tree wearing a baseball cap and square glasses with his computer in his lap.

“We’re moving away from fighting with people and toward fighting with technology,” Oleksandr said. “I can see this trend and this approach being actively pushed since Fedorov came in. And I directly associate his appointment with these positive changes.”

He’s frustrated by the quick turnover — Fedorov’s term as Defense Minister was just six months long before this shuffle.

“At the very least, he needs to be given more time so he can finish what he started,” said Oleksandr.

Under martial law, Ukraine has no election process, so Oleksandr feels as though protesting is the only lever of influence he has over authorities.

“The work still has to be done,” he said. “But my inner voice tells me that I have to express my views and my outrage in person

Also in the grass outside Zelenskyy’s office, laptop-out, was Anastasiia Drapaliuk, head of the Nature Fund of Ukraine, perched against a tree with a cardboard sign laid near her foot. She was working remotely from the protests, not necessarily in support of Fedorov as an individual but as a citizen concerned about the lack of transparency in Ukraine’s government.

“When the only person in the government who is working effectively is dismissed, it raises questions about the country’s top leadership—where they’re heading and what they’re trying to achieve,” Anastasiia said.

Both Oleksandr and Anastasiia participated in the protests in 2013–2014 at Maidan during the Revolution of Dignity, when more than one million people gathered in the Kyiv city center to protest against an attempt to put Ukraine back on pro-Russian course. More than one hundred people were shot dead in the clashes with special police forces.

She sees these protests, both in 2014 and this time around, as an opportunity for the rest of Europe to watch and learn from the way Ukrainians protest. “We’ve already mastered it—and now we can teach them.”

Back at Denys’ ‘desk, a young guy wearing sports sunglasses came by and asked to charge his phone. Denys promptly plugged this stranger’s phone in. Another random protester brought a pack of water bottles to Denys, put them under the table for shade, and uttered a single phrase, “realize,” which instructed Denys to give them away.

The whole protest had a distinct spirit of camaraderie — everyone was collected and polite. There were many more people offering free water, as well as volunteers with the field kitchen, offering soup and a piece of bread, once again, completely free of charge.

A sense of urgency and common problems were in the air. It was clear from the atmosphere that people were backing now-former Defense Minister Fedorov while protesting the way in which he was sacked. People were chanting, “made it wrong, now make it,” “listen to the people,” and “Syrskyi, out!” There were also customary patriotic chants, and at one point, the crowd came together to sing the Ukrainian national anthem.

As for now, it is not known who will replace Fedorov in the MoD. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not yet proposed a new candidate to parliament, saying that Ihor Klymenko, previously predicted to take the position, is only one of the options.

For now, Zelenskyy has instructed Yevhen Khmara, who also serves as head of the SBU, to perform the duties of the Minister of Defense.

The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, is reportedly taking a month-long break, during which it will search for another candidate for the Minister of Defense position, rather than Klymenko. A vote on a new Minister of Defense might take place on August 18, if it does not take place today.

Denys was also there representing the soldiers that were not able to attend the protest in person.

“Some of them even asked me to come out here if I had the chance, because they don’t,” he said.

The nature of his remote job allowed Denys to continue with his day while fighting for what he believes in.

“Well, I can’t exactly call in sick,” he said.

Live from Kyiv: Inside the protests outside Zelenskyy’s office

Our reporter, Mariana, brings us to the scene of the hundreds of people gathered outside the president’s office. She explains what people are chanting for, how lawmakers are reacting to Fedorov’s dismissal, and even translates their signs from Ukrainian into English.

DOG OF WAR

Petro spotted this dog at the protest today. The owner wrapped it in the Ukrainian flag to show support for the protesters.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Petro, Mariana, Jackie

Featured subscriber comment:

I support your work for the next great democracy of Ukraine. You document the greatest struggle to becoming free and in charge of your destiny. I am proud to contribute.

By: Kara Kane

Get full access!

Tip jar!

On 15 July, Mykhailo Fedorov was dismissed from his post as the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, following the resignation of the Prime Minister and several other ministers as part of Zelenskyy’s major governmental reshuffle. “It has been my great honor to serve the Ukrainian people as Minister of Defense,” he wrote, followed by a list of 22 achievements from his cabinet, including cutting off Russian Starlink access and an increase in drone interception rates under his leadership.

Discussions about his replacement were met with criticism from parts of Ukrainian civil society, as Zelenskyy has not yet outlined the reasons for his dismissal.

Read more

Ukraine’s popular defense minister expected to stand down… Ukraine sinks Russian patrol ship… France gives Ukraine cruise missile production license… EU excludes Ukrainian military age men from refugee protection… June was the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians… Ukrainian peacekeepers day…

OUR LEAD STORY:

Adrian Licea was ten years old when he decided that when he finally grew up, he would leave Cuba. It was 2003, and while wandering through a store in his hometown of Santiago de Cuba, the second-largest city on the island, he spotted a toy car he desperately wanted. But the price tag read $300. He knew for sure his family could never afford it.

“At that moment, I understood that when I grew up, I would earn enough money and help my family,” Adrian said.

Cuba’s economy has been mired in stagnation for years, crippled by the communist government’s failed economic model and domestic policies, while also strained by decades of U.S. sanctions. However, conditions in Cuba have deteriorated since January, after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new fuel restrictions on the island, exacerbating an already chronic shortage.

On July 14, Cuba suffered its third nation-wide power blackout in two weeks, something previously unseen. Notably, however, most of the country, including Havana, experiences near-daily blackouts amid Cuba’s worst humanitarian crisis since the Cuban Revolution in the 1950s.

Now, across Cuba, surgeries are halted due to a lack of light, scarce food supplies spoil quickly without refrigeration, and cities stumble without communication. An acute shortage of fuel and supplies has pushed Cubans to the brink of surviva.

Though Kyiv was recently ranked among the 10 least livable cities in the world by the Economist Intelligence Unit, despite the constant danger, Adrian has chosen to stay in Ukraine, preferring war-torn Ukraine to a depleted Cuba.

While political debates over the embargo continue on the international stage, the real cost of Cuba’s geopolitical isolation falls on ordinary families.

Washington has faced criticism over whether tightening sanctions on an already struggling economy can effectively pressure the Cuban authoritarian regime to change. But Cuban authorities blame years of U.S. sanctions for the crisis, and experts point to decades of economic mismanagement and institutional weakness for the current state of the country.

Read more

Ukraine fails to destroy ballistic missiles, again… Ukrainian strikes shut down a critical waterway in Russia… Russian hacked doorbell cameras to track Kyiv’s weapons deliveries…

Editor’s Note:

For many Ukrainians, including the majority of the Ukrainian team of The Counteroffensive, there is a sickening contrast between seeing citizens of the aggressor state enjoying a European vacation while Ukrainians die protecting their homes and can’t sleep due to repeated airstrikes. That’s why we’re telling Diana’s story.

If you value our work and want us to keep telling these complex, uncomfortable truths, please support us by subscribing today.

Get Full Access!

Tip Jar!

OUR LEAD STORY:

On June 19, Diana Kondratiuk furiously stormed out of the restaurant of the Floralpina hotel, where she works in Italy. As she smoked, she tried to calm down.

She kept telling herself: “You can’t take this to heart or let it get to you. You’re at work.” The next minute Diana sent a hotel room number to her Ukrainian colleagues with a brief note.

“Russians are there,” she typed.

It happened after Diana heard how the Russian tourists she was serving were discussing the war. Diana found them unpleasant at first sight. They were a married couple.

According to Diana, the woman was telling her husband about Mariupol, and how Russia “was doing everything correctly, but could’ve been more gentle, because there were children there.” While eating their breakfast, they were also discussing how supposedly “a Ukrainian sniper shot a Ukrainian mother and her children” (a common Russian propaganda narrative).

Diana was boiling inside. She had her back to them while she was setting the tables and listening to what they were saying. She wanted to march over and confront them, but all she could do was ask her boss for a smoke break because she couldn’t take it anymore.

This week the EU has been locked in a heated debate over a ban on visa issuance to former Russian soldiers, originally planned to be included in the 21st sanctions package adopted by mid-July. However, instead of full limitations, a narrowed ban is on the table following criticism by France and Italy.

The newly proposed travel restrictions will apply only to short-term visas and people who were actually fighting in Ukraine after the beginning of the full-scale invasion, excluding administrative and logistics staff. The exemptions from the ban were also widened: now visas may be granted for humanitarian reasons, national interest, or international obligations; earlier, only dissidents and defectors from the army could receive visas.

While chance encounters between Ukrainians and Russian tourists — some of whom may turn out to be active or former soldiers — are deeply unsettling, the issue ultimately extends beyond personal discomfort. Failure to completely restrict entrance to the EU by Russian combatants and war veterans could pose a security risk for the block.

In Ukraine, Diana Kondratiuk studied to be a lawyer and worked at a call center, but in Italy she started out as a maid in a hotel near Turin and since then has worked in hotels all over the country as a maid or waitress.

When Ukrainian refugees come to Europe they face challenges finding employment, in particular due to a lack of language skills and the non-recognition of their Ukrainian qualifications.

It was hard for Diana to get used to hard physical labor after a desk job, and she didn’t understand Italian at first which annoyed her employers. It was also difficult because this was never her true choice: she had been forced to flee her home, Sumy, in March 2022 with no plan of where to go. Her family packed into their minivan, went to the Romanian border and took the first free bus to anywhere, arriving in Crema, Italy two days later.

Now Diana works in the Floralpina hotel in Bolzano province amid the Dolomites in northern Italy. Her wrists hurt a lot from all of the dishes she has to carry, and she is always surrounded by the smell of food, vinegar used for making utensils shine, and sweat — intrinsically part of the Italian summer heat.

Despite the hard work and long hours, Diana likes working here; she’s officially employed and has nice pay and friendly relations with other staff members.

Yet, there are things that upset her: Russian tourists.

After the beginning of the full-scale invasion, all the EU countries banned Russian aircraft from entering their airspace, which made travelling for Russians more difficult. Instead, many Russians chose to visit Turkey, Georgia, Thailand: countries that provide a visa-free entry. Wealthier Russians, though, still fly to Europe with a layover in a third country.

In 2022, the EU also suspended its Visa Facilitation Agreement with Russia. As a result, the visa application process became more complicated for Russians, and they were faced with more scrutiny.

Stricter rules were adopted in November 2025: Russians, with some exceptions as to the family members of EU citizens, transportation workers, journalists, dissidents, and civil society representatives, are no longer allowed to receive multiple-entry visas.

They are required to apply for a new short-term visa each time they plan to travel to the EU.

However, the issuance of visas remains within the jurisdiction of each member state.

Russians are barred from entering some countries (Poland, Czechia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) from a non-EU state, even if they hold a Schengen visa that allows them to enter Europe’s visa-free travel area. Entry for tourism purposes is prohibited for Russians who are not Schengen residents in Finland and Norway.

However, Italy, where Diana lives, is second only to France among the EU countries in issuing visas to Russians; in 2025, it issued 160,000 such visas.

Diana is alright with Russians who left the country many years ago or at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. According to her, they usually condemn Russia’s actions and “call a spade a spade.”

“I don’t feel like talking to them much, but I don’t feel like spitting in their coffee either,” Diana joked.

It is quite different when she encounters people who still live in Russia. When talking among themselves, she finds that they reiterate propaganda narratives.

“You always feel like responding when you hear such nonsense, heresy, or rubbish… If it were some restaurant where I was a guest, I wouldn’t be able to hold back, to be honest. But when you’re at work and you have to act professionally, all you can do is either pretend you don’t understand anything or leave,” Diana said.

Diana never speaks to them in Russian, only in Italian. Usually they want someone who speaks English, so Diana calls a colleague. Sometimes she asks her boss to move Russian tourists to another part of the restaurant where she isn’t working.

“It’s a business, and it’s not mine, so I [feel like I] have absolutely no… right to tell local management what to do,” Diana said. She is really grateful when they move Russians to another part of the restaurant to make her work a bit easier.

This June, eleven European countries demanded the further restriction of tourist visa issuance to Russians. These countries believe that Russians should not be able to vacation in Europe while Ukrainians are fighting for their survival.

In France and Italy’s opposition to the wider ban, they argued that it should be addressed through visa policy rather than in a sanctions package.

Furthermore, the two countries questioned the possibility of determining whether the person has actually fought or was only conscripted into the army. As such, they feared that the ban on ex-combatants would turn into a ban on entry for all Russians.

Meanwhile, the EU Commission has suggested new restrictions in the next revision of the Visa Code, which will be proposed this year. These measures would provide for suspension, rejection or restriction of visa applications submitted by citizens of third countries that pose security threats for the EU.

Diana would be happy if the EU stopped granting Russians with visas in general. She is extremely uncomfortable when she encounters them, and visa restrictions could have solved this issue. Even more frustrating is the fact that the person she is serving might be a Russian soldier.

“In Russian narratives, it is a ‘decaying Europe’ here. Why go here then?” Diana said.

Interested in more coverage about Russian influence in European countries? Take a look at these stories:

Why Russia pushes separatism inside NATO
Shadowing Russian hybrid warfare ships in the Baltic Sea
Mapaganda: Ukrainians flee to Europe, only to have their children taught Russian propaganda

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By: Oleksandra Poda

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

UKRAINE FAILS TO DESTROY BALLISTIC MISSILES, AGAIN: Last night, Russia launched an overnight attack on Kyiv, using over 120 drones and 12 missiles, with half of them being ballistic missiles. Zelenskyy announced that while Ukrainian air defense was able to down most of the projectiles, they were not able to intercept the ballistic missiles.

Due to a shortage of Patriot interceptors, Ukraine has struggled to intercept ballistic missiles in Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine. During the July 6 strike, 29 ballistic missiles were launched at Ukraine, none of which were shot down. Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine will hold the first meeting regarding the FREYA program, Ukraine’s own anti-ballistic system, a cheaper alternative to the Patriot interceptors. Earlier this week, Trump promised to grant a license for producing Patriots in Ukraine.

UKRAINIAN STRIKES SHUT DOWN A CRITICAL WATERWAY IN RUSSIA: On July 11, Russia temporarily suspended navigation through the Azov-Don Canal, a waterway connecting the Don River to the Sea of Azov, following massive Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels.

Last night, 28 vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet were destroyed in the Sea of Azov. In total, Ukrainian drone units destroyed or damaged 76 vessels over six days, according to the Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. Russia’s Border Guard Service informed shipping companies that it would not accept applications for passage through the Kerch Strait, which connects the Azov and Black Seas, starting from 6:10 p.m. local time on Friday. There was no indication of when service would resume, Reuters reported.

Up to a quarter of Russia’s total wheat exports — the world’s largest — pass through the Sea of Azov. Following the strikes, wheat prices on Euronext jumped by 4%, reaching a six-week high.

RUSSIAN HACKED DOORBELL CAMERAS TO TRACK KYIV’S WEAPONS DELIVERIES: On July 10, Dutch intelligence agencies uncovered a large-scale Russian operation to hack into civilian cameras connected to the internet along weapons supply routes to Ukraine. Specifically, the hackers compromised doorbell cameras, which owners typically use to monitor their property via smartphones. The operation spanned European NATO countries, including the Netherlands. Organizations whose IP cameras were compromised along these routes have already been warned.

Ukrainian hackers have also used similar tactics. For instance, video footage from Russian cameras helped locate and destroy a submarine in Novorossiysk.

DOG OF WAR:

This morning, Oleksandra met nine corgis:

• Four were spotted on their morning walk

• Three stopped by for coffee

• One popped into the pharmacy to get some throat lozenges for his owner

• And one, pictured here, came to the lab to support his owner so he wouldn’t be afraid to get blood tests

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Mariana.

Russia bans diesel exports… Ukraine told Greece strike against russian ships to continue… Producing patriot missiles in Ukraine won’t be simple… 2 years since the russian attack on ‘Okhmatdyt’.

OUR LEAD STORY:

KYIV, Ukraine — Since May, Ukraine has largely maintained the pace of its strikes deep inside Russia and its efforts to stabilize the front, making June a relatively successful month for Kyiv despite difficult sectors along the front line and an intensifying Russian air campaign.

In this issue, The Counteroffensive spoke with military and economic analysts, as well as agents in the military underground resistance movement in occupied territories, to explore successes and setbacks on the battlefield: the Crimean middle-strike campaign, Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s largest oil refineries, and what Moscow is likely to do next.

Zelenskyy’s Campaign to “Break Russia”

Emergency state in Crimea. This June, Ukraine’s military systematically targeted energy infrastructure, military facilities, and logistics in Crimea, complicating Russia’s ability to supply troops, fuel, military equipment, and other resources to the Zaporizhzhia and the Kherson region. The operation is also seen as a peninsula-blockade aimed at trapping Russian forces there.

Ukrainian forces have brought key highways under fire control and struck ferries, the shadow fleet, and railway infrastructure, leaving the Kerch Bridge (operating under significant restrictions) as the only remaining major logistical artery connecting Crimea to Russia.

Strikes on bridges have already reduced military traffic along the key Mariupol–Sevastopol highway, which links Crimea with Donbas, by 71 percent.

Russians now reportedly use vehicles belonging to municipal services — the postal service, gas utilities, and other organizations — including passenger cars to transport fuel to military positions, according to Atesh, a military underground resistance movement in occupied territories and Russia.

Agents from Atesh’s group embedded within the Russian military say that the delivery of military equipment and food supplies, as well as the execution of various administrative processes, has also slowed significantly due to the blackouts caused by Ukrainian strikes.

Following intense Ukrainian strikes and mounting gas crises across Russia, Crimea entered a state of emergency.

Both local residents and Russian tourists are now evacuating from the peninsula, the partisans told The Counteroffensive. In recent weeks, traffic queues stretching up to 20 kilometers formed at the exit over the Kerch Bridge, with some people reportedly unable to leave for three to four days due to fuel shortages. Occupation administration officials are also reportedly requesting sick leave or vacation to leave Crimea.

All Russian major oil refineries hit. As of July, Ukraine has disabled more than 40 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity by targeting facilities. Eight refineries were struck this month alone, several sustaining significant damage. The Moscow Oil Refinery, which supplies fuel to the entire Moscow region, is unlikely to resume operations before early 2027.

According to Ihor Burakovskyi, Chairman of the Board at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, the timing is particularly painful for Russia as summer is the peak season for fuel consumption.

Ukraine also struck the last remaining facility on its list of Russia’s 11 largest oil refineries, meaning all of them are now within the reach of Ukrainian forces. The Omsk Oil Refinery suspended operations following a drone attack on July 7, marking one of Ukraine’s deepest strikes into Russia to date — approximately 2,500 kilometers from the border.

The targeted refineries supply much of the country’s domestic fuel market. Refined petroleum products also generate higher profits than crude oil exports, making refinery outages a greater economic blow. The volume of crude oil Russia processed into fuel fell by a quarter in June compared with the same month last year, reaching its lowest level in more than two decades.

“This is a logistical issue — it has to be solved immediately. But then another problem arises: they cannot divert large volumes of fuel from Kazakhstan or Belarus because doing so would create shortages there,” Burakovskyi said.

Ukraine may also have carried out its first-ever ballistic missile strike inside Russia on July 2. If confirmed, the launch of the FP-9 ballistic missile, reportedly capable of striking targets up to 850 kilometers away, would make Russian air defenses’ job significantly more difficult since ballistic missiles travel much faster than drones or cruise missiles.

By the end of June, web searches for “When will the SMO end?” (Special Military Operation — Russia’s official term for its war against Ukraine) had reached an all-time high. The phrase was searched more than 137,000 times from June 22–28 on Russia’s largest search engine, Yandex.

Ukraine’s territorial gains outpace losses again

Ukraine lost 84 sq. km. of territory in June (0.0001% of its total land area) according to DeepState, an OSINT project that tracks frontline movements. For the second month in a row, Ukraine has liberated more territory than Russian forces have occupied, which is a notable achievement not seen since the 2023 counteroffensive.

Roman Pohorilyi, co-founder of DeepState, told The Counteroffensive that Ukrainian forces are making gains in at least two areas. Exactly where those gains have been made has not been disclosed for security reasons, but the AFU might be advancing on the southern front given the recent strikes on logistics routes linking Russian forces with occupied Crimea.

Eastern axis. The situation around Kostiantynivka, a frontline city in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, remains particularly difficult after 8 months of intense fighting. Russian forces have once again relied on infiltration tactics, slipping into the city in small groups to establish a foothold.

Pohorilyi says that the Ukrainian military is still holding the city, although it has become increasingly difficult and chaotic due to Russia’s manpower advantage, a lack of coordination between Ukrainian drone operators and infantry, as well as constant attacks on logistics in the area.

If Kostiantynivka falls, Russian forces would gain a more direct route toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk: the last two major Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbas. (Read about why Donetsk’s fortified belt is vital for Ukraine here.)

Russian activity has also intensified near Lyman in the Donetsk region. Instead of launching a direct assault on the city, Russian troops are attempting to bypass it and reach the settlement of Raihorodok, from where they could launch an offensive toward Sloviansk.

Southern axis. Russian forces also completely captured Huliaipole on the southern front in the Zaporizhzhia region, continuing their advances into nearby settlements. The city had been resisting repeated Russian active attempts to seize it since the end of 2025.

The AFU says Russian units remain about 30 kilometers from the city of Zaporizhzhia, despite Putin’s claim that Russian troops are already within 9 kilometers.

Northern axis. Russians are continuing the assault operations in the Sumy region, aimed at creating a buffer zone, though their gains remain limited. Russian forces are currently positioned about 20 kilometers away from the city, and there are no signs of a major offensive.

Russia’s next steps

Russia is looking to announce a mass mobilization on the frontline this fall following a manpower shortage, right after the domestic elections take place in the country. As of now, the Russian army is facing around 30,000–34,000 casualties per month, whereas approximately 27,000 people per month join the army.

According to Atesh, a similar mobilization campaign was already carried out in 2022 after the Kharkiv offensive, which helped to stabilize the frontline. However, the partisans say this time the situation might be different.

“Russia can no longer recruit enough people even for contract military service…Russian universities have been assigned quotas requiring at least 2% of students to sign contracts. Yet even that has failed to produce the desired results,” said Atesh.

Roman Pohorilyi, a co-founder of DeepState, remains skeptical as well.

“They cannot simply mobilize a million people overnight. It takes funding, weapons, equipment, logistics, and training, all of which require enormous resources, organization, and time,” he said.

Russia is also adapting its tactics of massive attacks. It has begun launching Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles at Kyiv from Russia’s Kursk region instead of occupied Crimea. Whereas the missiles previously took six to ten minutes to reach Kyiv, the new launch trajectory has reduced the flight time to four to six minutes, making its interception more complicated even for Patriot interceptor systems.

Russia has also begun deploying jet-powered drones on Shahed platforms far more intensively. Equipped with turbojet engines, they can reach speeds of up to 500 kilometers per hour. Ukraine can currently intercept more than 90 percent of Shahed drones with interceptor drones, but those systems cannot bring down jet-powered drones. As a result, Ukraine must rely on surface-to-air missiles, further depleting its already limited air-defense stockpiles.

Some of the attacks were facilitated through Belarus, which has yet to dismantle relay stations that allow Russian drones to be controlled in real time, despite repeated warnings from Ukraine.

“The enemy may have switched to intermittent operation, activating [the relay stations] only during attacks. To improve concealment and make them harder for Ukraine to detect, they simply shut them down when they are not in use,” said Bohdan Dolintse, an aviation expert.

Despite Minsk’s continued support for Moscow’s war effort, Kyiv considers a renewed offensive from Belarus less likely. Ukraine is preparing for a possible offensive into the Chernihiv region from Russia’s Bryansk region instead.

Nevertheless, Ukraine is continuing to reinforce its northern border, building new fortifications and installing anti-drone netting.

Interested to know what’s going on in Ukraine? We recommend reading these stories about the latest updates:

Uninvited drones ruined Putin’s big economic party

Russia’s oil empire running low on gas

How Ukraine is cutting off Russia’s land corridor to Crimea

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By Petro Gordon, Kateryna Antonenko

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

RUSSIA BANS DIESEL EXPORTS: Moscow has banned export of the diesel fuel after Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries left most of Russia suffering severe fuel shortages, Reuters reports. Alongside the export ban, Russia will now be importing petroleum products to ease its domestic fuel shortage.

As part of Ukraine’s barrage of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, Ukraine has attacked Russia’s largest oil refinery in Omsk, forcing the refinery to pause operations. The July 7 attack was one of Ukraine’s longest-range attacks of the war so far.

Russian-occupied Crimea is experiencing some of the worst shortages, which have strained the country’s fuel supply amongst other goods. Fuel prices have almost doubled in the past week, and even the purchase of fuel has been restricted on the peninsula.

UKRAINE TOLD GREECE STRIKE AGAINST RUSSIAN SHIPS TO CONTINUE: Athens was outraged after a Ukrainian maritime drone carrying 100 kilograms of explosives, believed to be headed for a Russian tanker, was discovered near a Greek island in the Ionian Sea. Greek officials demanded an apology from Kyiv and as well as reassurances that this would be avoided in future.

While Kyiv did apologize, it has not promised to hold back from future attacks and Ukraine has said Russian ships will be treated as military targets.

PRODUCING PATRIOT MISSILES IN UKRAINE WON’T BE SIMPLE: Trump recently said that he may give Ukraine the license to start producing Patriot interceptor missiles. However, Bloomberg has reported that developing Ukrainian production of the weapons would take years even if the U.S. license was issued, meaning that it will do little to ease Ukraine’s current air defense shortage. It was also noted that the production of these missiles would be at risk of attacks from Russia.

Furthermore, large-scale production of Lockheed Martin Corp.’s Patriot missiles in Ukraine is complicated by the missiles’ inherent complexity and strict U.S. technology controls. Supply chains are already overburdened, and launching a new production line would require specialized equipment and training.

2 YEARS SINCE THE RUSSIAN ATTACK ON ‘OKHMATDYT’: Ukraine commemorates the massive attack on Okhmadyt, the children’s hospital in Kyiv which occurred on July 8, 2024. Russia carried out a massive bombardment of the capital, firing an X-101 cruise missile at the country’s largest children’s hospital.

Video: Our reporter Anastasiia shared what she saw on that day.

DOG OF WAR:

Petro’s family dog, Gumbert, is preparing for fight…or to dig a big hole in the backyard.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Mariana

Editor’s Note:

Amid growing tension and fear over reports of a shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles in Ukraine, Trump made an important announcement.

For the past few weeks, some members of The Counteroffensive and The Arsenal, our sister publication, along with their children and pets, have been spending the night in shelters to feel safer.

We understand how important it is for our readers to get accurate up-to-date news,, which is why we continue to write for you.

If you value our work, please consider subscribing.

Get Full Access!

Tip Jar!

Donald Trump said Wednesday he may allow Ukraine to produce desperately needed Patriot interceptor missiles.

The potential deal came on the sidelines of the second day of the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, where Zelenskyy and Trump discussed ways to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses and possible means to end the war.

The last week has been especially dangerous, with intensified ballistic attacks on Kyiv and other cities – and signals that Ukraine is either low or even out of anti-missile interceptors.

Yesterday, Russia launched the third ballistic missile attack on the capital in a week, while Ukraine is left with almost no capabilities to shoot down those targets.

Read more

The Netherlands can no longer provide assistance to Ukraine… Czech Republic also won’t commit to Ukraine aid; but won’t block NATO… Moldova warns its citizens against travel to Russia… Rutte: NATO’s interceptor supply is not “endless”.

OUR LEAD STORY:

KYIV, Ukraine – Slippers, gray shorts, a gray tank top and a large gray beard. He is driving an old Toyota Land Cruiser with a broken air conditioner, so he rolls down the windows to cope with the heat. That’s Roman, an ice-producer, whose livelihood depends on the weather. And right now, things are heating up.

Roman Cherniakhivsky studied to become a surveying engineer. Yet, in that profession, he hasn’t worked a day in his life. Instead, while working as a bartender in Kyiv, he noticed there were no companies delivering high quality ice on demand. That’s when he noticed a business opportunity — and became an ice producer. Since 2006, his company ‘Red Ice’ has been supplying businesses and private parties in Kyiv and the surrounding area.

“Back then you simply couldn’t buy ice anywhere. When I started offering it as a service and told people [to buy ice], they laughed at me,” Roman recalled. To most people, the idea of turning ice into a profitable business seemed absurd.

Today, in 2026, it seems that he will have the last laugh after all.

In recent years, summers have been steadily getting hotter across Europe. This month a powerful anticyclone arrived from North Africa, bringing an extreme heatwave to Europe. Across the continent, temperatures have surpassed 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) and broke the 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) mark in some places. Even Eastern Europe, which usually enjoys milder summers than France or Italy, has also had to cope with extreme heat.

Such extreme temperatures suggest that global warming is no longer an abstract hazard. Its impact is already felt worldwide. However, heat poses a significant challenge for Ukraine, which puts a tremendous strain on its partially destroyed electricity infrastructure, leaving fewer options on how to survive high temperatures. Scheduled power outages were introduced in every region to stabilize the system.

In Roman’s line of work, it’s easy to stay cool — even during such heat.

“We have a freezer at minus twenty degrees Celsius. Stay there too long and you’ll freeze instead,” said Roman. He also shared some inside information on how professionals beat the heat: “riding in a refrigerated truck is nice — you open the cargo compartment and enjoy the cold for a minute.”

The process of ice production is straightforward. First, you purify the water, only then the ice machine can do its magic. After that is packaging, cold storage and delivery. ‘Red Ice’ production facility is not large, with Roman employing only seven people. There used to be 10, but two have been drafted and one has left the country.

Roman says there are only a few companies in Ukraine which sell exclusively ice, whereas for others it is an additional product alongside, for example, coffee or syrups. At first, he started with producing only food-grade ice, but soon he experimented with making sculptures, dishes and glasses. His sculpting endeavors even brought him to South Korea, where Roman held an exhibition.

Back in Ukraine, he is always coming up with extraordinary ways to sell ice.

“A champagne fountain carved from ice. That one was fascinating. I spent a week figuring it out.” Other times, it’s not so simple. “They’ll [clients] say, “Let’s freeze a balloon — and then make it fly afterwards,” said Roman.

Roman is not anxious about the record heat unlike scientists, as the current heatwave is not a unique occurrence in the European climate but already a part of a global trend. Similar rapid temperatures have been observed in 2022–2024. 2024 in particular holds an alarming record of being likely the warmest year on Earth since record keeping began in 1880, according to NASA. That summer was particularly difficult for Ukrainians, who struggled to cool down without electricity.

“Unfortunately, this is already the new climate reality,” said expert Vira Balabukh in a statement to The Counteroffensive. “Our primary task is not only to slow climate change but also to learn how to live and work under these new climatic conditions,” she explained.

New climate conditions are more dangerous for people, as higher temperatures mean an increase in the mortality rates. There are no official statistics for heat-related deaths in Ukraine, but it can be estimated by taking a look at European countries with similar climate. In Germany, for example, there have been an estimated 810 heat-related deaths this summer, according to the Robert Koch Institute.

At the current rate, the heatwave in Ukraine is more dangerous than Russian attacks, despite the increase in the civilian deaths from the latter in May 2026, according to a UN report.

For Roman’s factory, however, it is the most profitable time of the year as people and businesses buy more ice from him when the temperature outside is high.

“[The demand is] about 70 percent higher [in summer], at least for food-grade ice,” explained Roman.

Following the winter attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukrainian power grids are still weakened. That’s why ice companies in Ukraine, including Roman’s, try to prepare for the long power outages, although it is impossible. 2026 has been no exception, with Russia targeting energy and civilian infrastructure both in the winter and summer.

“Every ice company keeps reserves – 100 tons, 200 tons [of ice]. Then the electricity goes out, production drops, the heat continues, sales soar, and eventually the reserves run out. That’s exactly what happened in Kyiv,” explained Roman.

The weather situation last week in Ukraine was similar to one in the rest of the European continent. The National Hydrometeorological Institute of Ukraine told The Counteroffensive that this year saw several temperature records.

Extremely hot weather can also bring heavy rain and storms afterwards, Nataliia Ptukha, an expert from the Ukrainian National Hydrometeorological Center told The Counteroffensive.

Roman’s business, despite being ‘heat-proof’, is a victim of the severe weather changes. The roof of the production facility was badly damaged during the recent thunderstorm. That was the reason The Counteroffensive couldn’t visit the production facility.

When talking about dreams and future projects, however, his eyes light up, like a child.

Roman says the economic situation, power shortages and the war make it difficult for a small, privately owned ice-production to stay afloat.

Despite that, he seems optimistic about the future ice projects. “I’d like to create a live performance for events,” said Roman. His idea is to create an ice and fire live show, with a burning chainsaw. The ice is supposed to catch fire, while the performer throws the burning chainsaw toward the audience and then starts carving a sculpture.

“The main problem is that the chainsaw itself burns,” Roman laughed.

Interested in more coverage about ecology? We recommend reading these stories:

Ukraine’s war-tested firefighters share advice with L.A.’s

Ukraine’s new Ecocide war crime theory

I once craved the polar cold. Now I fear it at home

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By Kateryna Antonenko, Oleksandra Khelemendyk

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

THE NETHERLANDS CAN NO LONGER PROVIDE ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE: When asked about providing more Patriot missiles to Ukraine, Dutch Defense Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius said that the Netherlands cannot provide direct military support to Ukraine anymore. She added that Dutch officials will work to encourage other states to continue supporting Ukraine, but said that the Netherlands has “done so much [for Ukraine]…we are at our limit.”

Throughout the full-scale invasion, the Netherlands has provided $10.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine and plans to spend an additional $13.3 billion. Currently, the country has already allocated $1.14 billion for the PURL program, with which European allies fund U.S. weapons for Ukraine.

CZECH REPUBLIC ALSO WON’T COMMIT TO UKRAINE AID; BUT WON’T BLOCK NATO: Many are expecting NATO to approve a measure at the NATO summit which would provide Ukraine with over $80 billion per year. In response to this, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has said that although he would not block this decision, his own country has no plans to make a financial commitment regarding military aid for Ukraine.

Babiš, who became the Czech Republic’s leader in December 2025, is part of the right-wing ANO party, which has pushed for scaling back Ukraine aid.

MOLDOVA WARNS ITS CITIZENS AGAINST TRAVEL TO RUSSIA: Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Moldovans citizens should avoid visiting Russia, amid reports of increased harassment by Russian authorities towards Moldovan citizens. Some have been interrogated at the border for up to 12 hours and had their devices searched, while instances of resisting inspection have resulted in arrest. Others have reported they were forced to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The group most frequently targeted are men aged 18–60, independent travelers, those with recently issued passports, who hold Russian and Moldovan citizenship and those who have visited Ukraine.

Moldova has long struggled with Russian influence and interference in the country, as part of Moldova, Transnistria, is a breakaway state which is backed by Russia. Moldova has recently pushed to raise the issue of Russia’s presence in Transnistria. Moldova also recently closed the ‘Russian House’, a center for Russian culture

RUTTE: NATO’S INTERCEPTOR SUPPLY IS NOT “ENDLESS”: On the eve of the NATO summit in Turkey, the alliance’s Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that “allies do not have an endless supply of interceptors.” This came after Ukraine’s stockpile of Patriot interceptors ran so low that it failed to repel a massive overnight missile attack, which targeted Kyiv and the surrounding region. None of the ballistic missiles were intercepted during this attack.

The attack on the capital killed at least 19 people and wounded nearly 76. However, Rutte noted that the alliance is working to deliver weapons to Ukraine through the PURL program.

CAT OF CONFLICT:

The War Cat Rudolf is enjoying the morning sun. Myroslava ran into him on her way to work.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Oleksandra and Petro.

KYIV, Ukraine — More than 600 residents of Vyshneve city, located around 20 km from Kyiv, have been temporarily evacuated following a massive overnight attack. Secondary detonations of the explosive ordnance continued for hours after the end of the attack at the site that was attacked. Large plumes of smoke and multiple fires engulfed the city. The cause of the continuing detonations has not yet been officially confirmed.

This is the second deadly attack that Russians carried out on the Ukrainian capital over the course of the week.

Video: Detonation after the night’s attack in Vyshneve, Kyiv region. Source: Telegram/Lachen

Read more

Subscribe now

Tip Jar

Last night in Kyiv I told a European that I was holding a Fourth of July party, to celebrate America’s 250th birthday.

“To celebrate America?” she responded, with a look of disgust.

I wasn’t as taken aback as I would have been a few years ago. We haven’t exactly been putting our best foot forward on the world stage lately.

But America is so much more than who the president is at any one time.

America is a flawed nation like any other, but one created on lofty goals — goals that we are trying to live up to.

It was founded on the premise of equality and justice; the anti-authoritarian impulse; a country ruled by laws, not by people.

Throughout the last two and a half centuries it has failed many times to live up to those goals. We see a lot of these ideals being constrained and repressed today, or ignored entirely.

But what motivates me is all the people refusing to succumb to apathy, cynicism and ignorance. People like you, who despite the government’s position on Ukraine, continue to support the hard reporting that needs to be done in this war zone.

Since we don’t have a president we can be proud of, we decided to use tools that defy authoritarians everywhere: comedy and imagination.

So, without further ado, here’s the pro-Ukraine speech we wished Trump would give on the Fourth of July.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Tim

Tip Jar

Zaluzhnyy may run for president; Russia may attack Ukraine from the north; 200 Russian troops trained in China.

KYIV, Ukraine — “Oh, what? Are we hiring white women to pump gas around here?”

Those were the words Amber Glover heard on her second day working at a gas station in the town of Grenfell, southern Saskatchewan, densely populated by the Plains Cree First Nation community, to which she rightfully belongs.

Under his skeptical gaze, she straightened her back and replied, “I’m a band [a First Nations community] member. I’m the store manager and I’m the only one pumping gas here right now, so the store keeps working.”

It was not the first time Amber had been forced to explain who she was.

With her First Nation blood and Ukrainian looks, Amber has spent much of her life navigating assumptions from both sides. For her own kids, she envisions a different world.

Dozens of nations shape Canada’s diverse culture. About 1.36 million, or 4 percent, of Canadian citizens have Ukrainian descent. Their ancestors started to arrive in Canada from villages in the 1890s, crossing the ocean to escape from acute poverty. Most of them got cheap farmland in the prairies of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta as part of Canadian state policy. Without any knowledge of English and sometimes illiterate, they were living side by side with Indigenous people, who had already been devastated by European disease and systemic marginalization. Over time, both First Nations and Ukrainian settlers transformed from poor and excluded ‘aliens’ in Canada into visible and recognized social groups. Thousands of people have both Ukrainian and Indigenous roots, fighting for freedom that is not easily attained.

Countries like Canada are not defined by one origin story but are shaped by generations of migration, displacement, and coexistence.

Read more

Germany may bring back conscription in 2027… Ukraine hits Russian military plant… Ukrainians trapped in Gaza…

Editor’s Note:

If you appreciate our human-centered journalism, please support us by subscribing.

Subscribe for free!

Tip jar!

OUR LEAD STORY:

KYIV, Ukraine — Ask Ukrainian Danylo Huska what he desperately desires for his home, Crimea, and his answer may surprise you: he wants it in complete ruins.

With no electricity, no water, no fuel and no heat.

“[I want them to] sit with their children in basements for a week, wiping themselves with wet wipes, sleeping in underground car parks…Just so they feel it all. Then we can come, take them by the arm, and say, ‘It’s all for the better,’” said Danylo.

The last phrase was what he used to hear from his friend from Russia, who also lived in Crimea. She said it when Danylo, a man in his forties, was crying, unable to help his family suffering from Russian bombardment in mainland Ukraine.

Four and half years into the full-scale war — and his native Crimea is now suffering from the electricity blackouts and fuel shortages on the peninsula.

In fact, an unseen gasoline crisis is unfolding across the whole of Russia after Ukraine carried out a series of air attacks on major oil refineries in occupied Crimea, Moscow and other cities. An acute fuel shortage has already hit 78 of the 85 regions of Russia. The gas purchase restrictions were already in place in 21 regions, leaving drivers standing in long lines for up to 12 hours.

Moscow has tried to make up for the shortage with imports from Belarus and Kazakhstan but both countries have depleted their reserves. Russia, an oil empire itself, might begin importing gasoline from Asia to mask the unfolding catastrophe.

After months of ineffective bilateral talks facilitated by the Trump administration, Ukraine might finally flip the negotiation table, as Russia significantly relies on oil revenues to prolong its war in Ukraine. For the first time since 2022, Russians are feeling notable consequences of the war on their territory, from occupied regions to Siberia.

“They were once acting as heroes. Now, the people still living there — ex-friends, acquaintances, and comrades — are saying: “Don’t fire on us. We haven’t done anything wrong. We’re just ordinary people. We have no say in what happens,” Danylo said.

Danylo was a successful restaurateur in Sevastopol, building his business to the point where it employed more than 100 people at its peak. It was his work — and his wife, whom he had just married in 2014 — that ultimately convinced him to stay in Crimea. Danylo accepted a Russian passport because it was the only way he could continue working there.

“My birthday is on April 1, and a lot of people from Ukraine sent me greetings. On April 2 [2022], I recorded a video in Ukrainian. Two days later, the FSB started hunting me because of it,” Danylo shared, describing the event that ultimately prompted him to leave Crimea.

The picture now unfolding on the occupied territories and Russia is a completely different reality, as Ukraine intensifies attacks on the oil refineries. A number of them were even forced to scale back production or temporarily suspend operations.

Russia produces crude oil, but it must pass through an oil refinery to become gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel. Unlike oil wells, which are difficult to destroy since they are underground, numerous, and time-consuming to restore, oil refineries are stationary, large, often poorly defended, and critical to the entire supply chain.

That is why the Ukrainian army chose it as an easier target to undermine the Russian war economy. June has been an especially successful month for Ukrainian strikes: around 35 percent of successful strikes this year have occurred this month alone, according to defence intelligence company ‘Janes’.

“Disruptions to logistics can create a situation where Russia has sufficient crude oil but lacks the capacity to refine it and deliver fuel to the domestic market in a timely manner,” explained Mykhailo Babiichuk, an expert of DiXi Group think tank.

Currently, gasoline production in Russia is down about 25% compared to last year, according to Reuters. Russian officials are now considering banning exports of diesel fuel, as fuel shortages continue to affect regions all over Russia.

One in four gas stations has imposed sales limits, and the government has permitted refineries to produce lower-quality fuel to restock shelves. Prices have hit a high not seen in several decades.

Crimea appears to be bearing the brunt of the fuel crisis. Retail gasoline sales have been suspended entirely. People in Crimea can buy a mere 20 litres per person. Gasoline is now sold on a black market where gasoline is reportedly selling for 200 rubles ($2.50) per liter, which is more than twice the average price in the U.S.

Danylo’s acquaintances and relatives in Crimea are reluctant to talk about what life is really like in the occupied peninsula. They routinely delete their messages to make sure they can’t be intercepted by the security services. They ask Danylo to do the same, so there’s nothing left to read on either side. They talk only about things like the weather or work.

According to energy expert Babiichuk, each new attack on the oil refineries increases the costs Russian companies must bear to repair damaged facilities, build backup infrastructure, strengthen air defenses, insure assets, and reroute logistics.

“Even if an individual refinery or export terminal resumes operations, the overall efficiency of the system declines while the cost of exporting oil continues to rise,” he explained.

Russia is now in talks with Kazakhstan to import 50,000 metric tons of gasoline, according to Reuters. In addition, Moscow is preparing to import gasoline by sea. To facilitate those imports, the government has already amended legislation to provide subsidies for gasoline importers.

A tanker from Asia is expected at one of Russia’s western ports this month with fuel sourced from an unnamed Asian country after Moscow waived a five percent import duty.

“If strikes continue, Moscow will increasingly be forced to choose between supplying its domestic market and preserving export revenues. The growing costs of repairing damaged infrastructure and adapting logistics will continue to erode the profitability of Russia’s energy industry,” said Babiichuk.

Danylo wants Crimea to be reduced to ruin and attacks on the oil refineries are a part of that, as cruel as that may sound at first.

But beneath that wish lies a profound grief for a home he no longer knows when, or even if, he will see again. He has no idea what will await him if Crimea is eventually liberated. He says most of those who remain on the peninsula today are Russians or collaborators. Still, there are people quietly holding on, waiting for the day the Russian flag is finally replaced by the Ukrainian one.

What he misses most is Crimea’s landscape. Although Danylo has traveled across much of Europe, he says he has never found another place where forests, the sea, mountains, and palm trees growing alongside pine trees coexist.

“I want to come back to a Ukrainian Crimea — to live there with the Ukrainian hryvnia, the Ukrainian language, and in a Ukrainian society, and to help build it,” Danylo said.

Interested in more coverage on how the war affects Russia’s economy? We recommend reading these stories:

The collapse of the Russian economy

Uninvited drones ruined Putin’s big economic party

Why I am happy when oil prices rise

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR

By: Oleksandra Khelemendyk

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

GERMANY MAY BRING BACK CONSCRIPTION IN 2027: The chair of the German parliament’s defense committee said that the government is considering bringing back mandatory military conscription by 2027, which was previously suspended in 2011.

This comes as Germany ramps up military spending in the midst of the increasing threat that Russia poses to Europe. The decision regarding military conscription must be made before July 31, 2027, when the law on military service takes effect. Currently, the German army has about 185,000 career soldiers, but the goal is to increase it to 260,000 by 2035.

UKRAINE HITS RUSSIAN MILITARY PLANT: On Sunday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that a Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo missile hit the Russian Titan-Barricades defense plant, a key producer of artillery systems and missile launchers for the Russian military.

Ukraine has also continued to strike Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure. Overnight, Ukraine struck two oil refineries in the regions of Krasnodar ​and Yaroslavl (190 miles and 430 ​miles away from the Ukrainian border, respectively). The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) also said that it carried out a drone attack on the Vtorovo oil pumping plant in the Vladimir region, which supplies diesel fuel to Moscow and other petroleum products for exports through the Baltic Sea.

Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities have caused fuel shortages in most regions of Russia. They have also raised the price of petrol by about 25% in the past week, with the occupied Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions of Ukraine facing the highest price increases.

UKRAINIANS TRAPPED IN GAZA: According to a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Israel will not allow the 40-50 Ukrainian citizens remaining in Gaza to leave. The Embassy of Ukraine in Israel said that, according to Israeli authorities, the individuals do not have the necessary documents to prove their Ukrainian citizenship.

CAT OF CONFLICT:

This cat is being looked after by Mariana’s neighbours and had a peaceful sleep in her block of flats.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Mariana, Oleksandra, and Petro

Coinciding with the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdansk, we’re launching our newest business intelligence publication: Build Back Ukraine.

Sign up here!

This is not for everyone: if you’re interested in technical, business-oriented news related to Ukrainian reconstruction — how regulations, financing and EU integration affect post-war business — then this is for you!

Our inaugural issue — out later today — examines the legislation around Ukraine’s struggling renewable energy auction system, tracing how two landmark laws were meant to jumpstart a decentralized solar and wind market — but have so far largely failed to attract investors due to state debt, an unattractive support formula, war risk, and incomplete regulation.

On the ground, the issue highlights the opening of Ukraine’s first new hospital since the full-scale invasion, built using modular construction in Brody, and President Zelenskyy’s visit to Slavutych to inspect a new EU-funded energy hub.

Rounding out the issue are key legislative updates, as well as sector signals covering finance, critical minerals, and energy deals.

Get in on the ground floor: sign up for Build Back Ukraine for free today! You can paste this URL or click the button below: https://www.buildback.pro/subscribe

Join Build Back Ukraine!

Equipment in Belarus guiding Russian strikes stopped working; Russia looks to India and Kazakhstan for gasoline amid fuel shortage; EU partners to give Ukraine $425 mil+ for energy sector; Russian satellites come suspiciously close to Finnish satellite.

THE BIG STORY: Ukrainian deftech attacking Russian logistics

The increase in mid-strike drone production capacity did not happen by chance, said Serhii Okhotnik, founder of the Hunter project, which manufactures drones and trains drone operators.

Many manufacturers were made aware of the military’s growing interest in capability. They were notified in advance and began preparing their development efforts, Okhotnik told The Arsenal. He also noted that demand for their products has increased tenfold, leading to a significant expansion of production.

According to Yelyzaveta Demchenko, an OSINT and GEOINT professional and military intelligence analyst, Ukraine uses UAVs such as RAM-2X, Bulava, Darts, and, less frequently, long-range UAVs FP1 and FP2 produced by Fire Point.

However, the majority of drones deployed across nearly all units are U.S.-made Hornet systems by Perennial Autonomy, Demchenko told The Arsenal.

According to her, for navigation, the Hornets rely on terrain mapping, which allows them to continue flying even if the operator’s signal is lost. One of the key functions is automatic target detection and acquisition: At a range of around 300–400 meters, the drone uses AI to identify the designated target and switch to autonomous guidance, continuing toward it even in the presence of EW interference.

“When we started this over three years ago, we did this with the intent of working closely with the Ukrainian military and frontline units to identify the big capability gaps that we could potentially fill,” said an official with Perennial Autonomy. “The one we really honed in on was this mid-range strike gap.”

The official pointed at HIMARS and Lancets, and how Ukraine needed a mid-range strike weapon for campaigns exactly like the one now underway in southern Ukraine.

Perennial Autonomy started sending Lancets to Ukraine in early 2025, embedding them in SOF units, and then surging more to frontline units in late 2025.

“In typical Ukraine fashion, in their innovative ways, and Azov was the first to do this, they slapped Starlink on these things and are achieving ranges that we didn’t think was possible, and it’s really impressive,” the official said. “They’re getting out 200km with these things... it really is filling that gap.”

There is also a so-called target library, Demchenko told The Arsenal. Thanks to machine vision, all recordings, strike data, and drone video footage is processed by artificial intelligence, enabling it to distinguish military targets and engage them autonomously. For example, even if a convoy of civilian vehicles is moving along a road alongside a military truck, the system can identify and isolate the military target among the civilian ones.

Behemoth, mid-strike drones, produced in cooperation between Ukrainian companies Culver Aerospace and GLEFA, have also been used to target logistics. The 1st and 475 Separate Assault Regiments confirmed that Behemoth drones were used in strikes on the Chongar Bridge.

How Ukraine is choking off Russian logistics

Viktoriia Kulchytska, Commercial Director of Ukrainian UAV developer Trypillian, highlights three key characteristics of strikes on enemy logistics

• The first is regularity, which plays a crucial role in such operations.

• The second is scale and repetition: “A single strike can destroy a vehicle, but a series of strikes along a specific route leads to changes in the enemy’s behavior,” she told The Arsenal.

• The third is speed - the ability to quickly detect a target, identify it, relay the information, and then strike it.

Effective fire control over road networks reduces overall freight flow and creates shortages of critical materials, primarily fuel, said an officer of the UAV Systems Command of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine Azov. He requested anonymity for security reasons.

“Due to fuel shortages, generators in units stop working, which makes it impossible to regularly charge batteries for FPV drones and communication equipment. At the same time, the lack of fuel transport disrupts the regular delivery of ammunition to artillery positions, which reduces the density and intensity of shelling,” he told The Arsenal.

The lack of fuel for trucks and light armored vehicles also blocks the transport of infantry, disrupting rotation schedules, complicating the redeployment of reserves between sectors, and reducing the intensity of offensive operations. Russian Telegram channels have already reported that mobile fire groups responsible for countering drones are being ‘knocked out’ due to fuel shortages.

Thus, keeping rear communications under constant pressure systematically reduces the combat effectiveness of enemy units on the frontline.

The emergence of new strike capabilities has reshaped Ukrainian operations against Russian logistics, Yaroslav Honchar, a representative of NGO Aerorozvidka, told The Arsenal. As soon as longer range systems became available, military planners quickly integrated them into operational use.

Building up a high quantity of these systems was also crucial, as large-scale strikes on logistical targets require a coordinated series of attacks involving a significant number of drones.

How Russia is adapting to the threat

In response to these attacks, Russian forces are attempting new ways to protect their logistics routes. “They are bringing in additional air defense systems, breaking convoys into individual vehicles, reorganizing routes, and trying to move as quickly as possible through exposed sections of roads,” the Azov representative noted.

Successful strikes on Russian logistics routes in the occupied territories of southern Ukraine have led the Russian command to ban the use of the main roads R-280 ‘Novorossiya’ and A-291 ‘Tavrida,’ redirecting military logistics to alternative routes.

Russian forces have also deployed vehicle mock-ups with phony ‘personnel’ inside following intensified strikes on logistics.

According to Honchar, the use of decoys is not a new phenomenon, and all the Ukrainian side has to do is conduct proper reconnaissance to avoid being duped. He also noted that at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, local residents in occupied territories actively reported on troop movements and logistics routes, but over time, due to filtration measures, repression, and fear of persecution, the number of such information sources has decreased.

Why strikes on Russian logistics are crucial

Logistics has always been one of the most important factors in warfare, and hence, a top target for any military hoping to cut off enemy supply routes to deprive them of critical materials.

Ukrainian forces have leaned into this heavily in recent weeks, significantly intensifying strikes on key routes in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine using middle strike drones. This was the ‘logistical lockdown’ that Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov teased back in May.

“The Donetsk–Mariupol–Taganrog and Mariupol–Volnovakha routes are used to directly transport the vast majority of military supplies and equipment from the territory of Russia into our operational zone, as well as, when necessary, to redeploy forces between different sectors of the front,” according to the Azov officer.

The land corridor through the occupied territories in southern Ukraine is a key supply artery for Russia to Crimea, Honchar told The Arsenal. After strikes on the Kerch Bridge in 2022, Russia prohibited the rail transport of fuel across the bridge. Meanwhile, the three rail ferries operating in the Kerch Strait were either destroyed or damaged by Ukrainian drones. That’s why the land route along the northern coast of the Sea of Azov became the main channel for transporting equipment, ammunition, and supplies to Crimea and Russian forces in the southern operational direction.

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By Mariana Stadnyk

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

EQUIPMENT IN BELARUS GUIDING RUSSIAN STRIKES STOPPED WORKING: Military technology in Belarus which was used by Russia to coordinate strikes on Ukraine has stopped working, President Zelenskyy announced at a press conference.

However, it remains unclear why the technology has stopped working and whether it was dismantled. Earlier, Zelenskyy demanded that Belarus take down the technology within a week or Ukraine would take the matter into its own hands.

Earlier this year, Russia ramped up pressure on Belarus, reportedly threatening to end financial support for the country unless its leaders played a more active role in the war. Moscow has also reportedly considered using Belarusian territory for operations against NATO countries.

RUSSIA LOOKS TO INDIA AND KAZAKHSTAN FOR GASOLINE AMID FUEL SHORTAGE: Russia is drafting amendments to the nation’s tax code, which would offer subsidies for gasoline imports from India, according to Kyiv Post. In addition to this, Russia is looking to Kazakhstan for additional support and negotiating the import of about 50,000 metric tons of gasoline, Reuters reported.

This comes as Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have decreased gasoline production by 25%. While Russia has been importing gasoline from Belarus, the imports are far less than what is needed to meet demand. The fuel shortage is being felt all across Russia as at least 15 regions impose restrictions on the sale of gasoline.

EU PARTNERS TO GIVE UKRAINE $425 MIL+ FOR ENERGY SECTOR: At the “Energy Ramstein” meeting in Gdansk, Poland, it was announced that the U.S., Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Iceland and Lithuania will collectively provide $425 million for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s energy sector, Ukraine’s Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal wrote on his Telegram channel.

Ukraine’s energy sector is better prepared for Russian attacks than it was last summer, but emergency power outages may still be implemented in July and August in the event of prolonged heat waves or another wave of Russian attacks targeting energy infrastructure.

RUSSIAN SATELLITES COME SUSPICIOUSLY CLOSE TO FINNISH SATELLITE: Four Russian military satellites came within 13 kilometres of a Finnish radar satellite, which produces imagery likely used by Ukrainian forces. The satellites were operating in low earth orbit, where satellites frequently travel at 28,000 kilometers per hour and where this kind of approach is considered hostile.

Experts believe that Russia may have been trying to jam radio communications, disrupt sensors with lasers or disrupt data transmissions.

DOG OF WAR:

Baguette the dog is the most fashionable one in Oleksandra’s neighborhood.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Zoriana and Tim

U.S. to let Ukraine produce Patriot missiles; bridge from Crimea to southern Ukraine destroyed; Russia’s Gazprom shares at their lowest since 2009.

OUR LEAD STORY:

On April 24, Kiril had to call all the customers whose packages were at the Nova Post — the largest postal company in Ukraine — and ask them for the most convenient place to have their shipments redirected.

Because he would no longer be working there.

Almost anyone living in settlements near the battlefield knows the rule: when the post office closes, the situation in the area is dire. Kiril’s village of Komyshuvakha, in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast and just 20 kilometers from the front line, found itself in exactly that position.

In wartime Ukraine, postal services have become a lifeline, connecting frontline regions with the rest of the country. They extend far beyond their usual functions, with branches serving as hubs for delivering humanitarian aid or as places to charge a phone.

With a deep understanding of how important the post is for Ukrainians, Russia often targets its branches, sorting hubs, and depots. During the latest massive air attack on June 15, for example, Russia destroyed Nova Post’s largest, most innovative sorting hub in Kyiv. Just two days later, on June 17, the company’s hub in Sumy, a city close to the Russian border, was damaged. Previously, post offices were targeted in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and other сities located near the frontline.

When security conditions become critical, there is no other solution but to terminate operations at its branches in towns and villages near the frontline, cutting off the population from crucial logistics services. The closure of postal branches in these towns and villages carries a grim warning for the locals that the war is getting closer to their homes.

Read more

Poland stripped Zelenskyy of its highest state award… Hungary lifts ban on Ukrainian media… Ukraine cuts off Crimea…

Editor’s Note:

When you read emotionally powerful stories like this one, you see only a small part of what our reporters go through during interviews. Working on such topics is often psychologically overwhelming, as these stories are so close to the heart of every Ukrainian. Nevertheless, we continue to do this so that these voices are heard.

If you appreciate our human-centered journalism, please support us by subscribing.

Subscribe for Free!

Tip Jar!

OUR LEAD STORY:

KYIV, Ukraine — A young couple was sitting in their flat’s kitchen when suddenly the woman said to the man: “You will die, but I want you to know that we’ll still have two children.” The man hugged her and replied that everything would work out for them.

Lyudmila woke from that warm, loving embrace. It was just a dream, and when she rose, it was the day of her embryo transfer. The man from the dream, her love, had already fallen on the frontlines, and she was going to have his child.

Ukraine is facing a catastrophically low birth rate. Russia’s military aggression has triggered an outflow of women from the country. Many of those who stay in Ukraine and are ready to have children are waiting for their husbands to return from the front.

This demographic crisis is not unique to Ukraine; 71% of the world’s population lives in countries or territories with a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. This means that in the future, these nations will be unable to maintain their population sizes without attracting immigrants. Furthermore, this trend could lead to an aging population, labor shortages, and economic decline.

But when a nation faces the consequences of war, preserving its demographic composition is no longer a matter of statistics but a genuine struggle for the future. Ukraine is facing on a massive scale what would have been isolated cases in peacetime: women who want to conceive children after the death of their husbands and who encounter legal obstacles in doing so.

The current Civil Code says that if a couple wasn’t officially married, the law doesn’t automatically give the common-law wife rights to her late partner’s reproductive material in the event of his passing. Fertility clinics are simply afraid to perform IVF using a deceased unmarried man’s sperm. This complete lack of clear laws on posthumous reproduction forces Ukrainian courts to solve deep ethical and legal dilemmas on their own.

Serhii was born in Kryvyi Rih, a city located in central-southern Ukraine. He loved to draw from childhood, and this passion grew into a career as a designer. He loved life, Liudmyla said, and he was an extraordinary person, drawn to everything new. He loved the sea and held a skipper’s license. Because of this love, he earned in the army the nickname “Moryak’’ — “sailor” in Ukrainian.

He was passionate about martial arts. Before the war, he worked as a coach at a preschool for children with developmental disabilities. “He believed that sports and attention would help these children recover,” recalled Lyudmila.

Serhii had always wanted a large family, and he was surprised when he met Lyudmila, who already had four children from a previous marriage. It was then that he realized all his wishes were coming true.

Lyudmila met Serhii on September 7, 2022, on Tinder. They texted each other for the next 10 months. When Serhii came to Kyiv for medical treatment, they met in person for the first time. Later, they would look back on that month as their “honeymoon,” because they never had the chance to get married and spend a real honeymoon together.

“It was an explosion of emotions,” Lyudmila recalled. “We immediately felt that we were meant for each other and wanted to be together forever.” And just two months later, they realized they wanted to have more kids. At the time, she was 42 and Serhii was 48. Because of their age and the war, the couple decided not to put their plans on hold.

“We understand that we’re old, but we won’t leave here without two children,” they declared at the clinic in Kyiv. The reproductive specialist listened to their request without hiding her surprise; usually people who come to the clinic dream of at least one child, but this couple wanted two — with a one-year difference. The doctor offered to freeze sperm, since this service was free for military personnel at the clinic’s initiative.

The couple agreed.

Two years later, in February 2024, the Ministry of Health launched a national program available to couples diagnosed with infertility. But at that time, even if Serhii and Lyudmila had wanted to take advantage of this program, they would not have been able to do so because the program is open only to people under the age of 40.

They agreed with the doctor that if they couldn’t conceive naturally within the first six months, they would turn to IVF. In Ukraine, IVF is available to both married couples and single women, though it is actually banned for single women in many other countries. Sperm and egg donation are completely legal and anonymous here, and so is surrogacy. In fact, surrogacy is a major reason for why so many foreigners used to come to Ukraine before the war, and some even continue to do so now.

Lyudmila recalls traveling to the Donetsk region in February to visit Serhii and “catch” her ovulation window. The weather forecast for that month predicted a severe blizzard, and several roads were already closed.

“I reassured Serhii that I’d manage to slip through before the storm hit,” she recalled. “And that’s exactly what happened. I arrived just two hours before the blizzard started.”

On their fifth month of trying, they successfully conceived.

When Lyudmila found out they were having a girl, she immediately told Serhii that he “owed” her a son. Serhii felt guilty for being at war instead of being with his family. During that time, Lyudmila’s children had come to love Serhiy, and he had come to love them.

Serhii joined the army at a young age; he was part of one of the first cohorts of the newly independent Ukrainian army, and he even took part in international exercises in the Netherlands.

“I think he knew his whole life that a full-scale war was coming. He was preparing for it,” Lyudmyla said.

At first, he served in reconnaissance in areas where very fierce battles were taking place. After he started dating Lyudmila, he transferred to the unmanned systems unit. Lyudmila noted that, according to his words, it was a “relatively safe field.”

He really wanted to be there for the birth and planned his vacation from the military so he could be by his beloved’s side during the postpartum period.

On August 30, 2024, a month before their daughter’s birth, Serhii fell in battle.

Lyudmila was devastated. She tracked down the yacht on which Serhii had trained in Greece and fulfilled her husband’s final wish—to have his ashes scattered over the sea.

“Serhii wanted to change his last name to his call sign, ‘Moryak,’ because his father who gave him [his] surname had defected to Russia and he wanted to start his own family with his own last name.” Lyudmila said. Eventually, Lyudmila would fulfill this wish: she changed her and her kids’ last names to Moryak.

Before giving birth, Lyudmila met with her fertility specialist. By that time, she had become much more than just a doctor to Lyudmila. She was one of the first people to reach out to her after Serhii’s death. During the meeting, Lyudmila cried uncontrollably and asked various questions, but the main thing she asked the doctor was not to dispose of Serhii’s biological material.

Her concerns were not unfounded. In November 2023, Zelenskyy signed Law No. 3496, under which, in the event of a servicemember’s death, the clinic is required to dispose of the deceased’s reproductive cells. This decision caused a stir, garnered immense public attention, and in early March 2024 the president reversed via another bill, No. 10448, which guaranteed military personnel the right to biological parenthood even after death.

Mia was born on September 28, 2024. She was greeted at the maternity ward by Serhii’s colleagues, with whom he had worked even before joining the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

During the first few months, Lyudmila was supported by her husband’s comrades and her own family. “The daily routine really helped me cope with the loss, because I had to order clothes, shoes, and sports uniforms for the kids and get them ready for school,” she said.

However, their routine was disrupted by their first challenge: how to officially register Mia, since the couple was not legally married. The government still hasn’t created a clear process for registering a baby whose father died long before conception. Under outdated rules, a man is automatically listed as the father only if the child is born within 300 days of his death. Lyudmila went through the paternity recognition process for nearly a year.

In April 2025, Lyudmila went to the clinic to discuss her plan to have a second child with Serhii. She felt she was ready for it.

The doctor told her they couldn’t do it, since Ukraine lacks legislation that clarifies what to do in cases where a couple wasn’t married.

Even though Lyudmila had a notarized power of attorney authorizing the use of the biomaterial, she had to fight for that right. Armed with the power of attorney from Serhii and the agreement they signed with the clinic when he was alive, she and her lawyer filed a lawsuit. The trial lasted half a year.

Serhii’s mother even had to be brought into the proceedings. She testified that she wouldn’t mind having more heirs. “I knew that even if I won, there was no guarantee that I’d be able to get pregnant,” Lyudmila recalled. She was already 44 years old at the time.

She recalls that Sergei’s power of attorney included the phrase: “I agree to have children with her even after my death.” At the time those words sent a chill down Lyudmila’s spine, but that was precisely what helped her win the case.

Lyudmila told only her daughter and a few of her closest friends that she had decided to get pregnant a second time. “I’m making a difficult decision; I didn’t need to hear anyone’s opinion, let alone have them try to talk me out of it.”

On December 11, 2025, Lyudmila asked her close friends to look after her younger daughter. She went by herself for an embryo transfer. “I knew it might not work out for me. IVF is a gamble,” said Lyudmila. Deep down, she understood that she was doing what she had to do.

Now Lyudmila is grateful to the doctors and the clinic, because by following their advice to freeze Serhii’s sperm she is pregnant with her much-desired second child with him. Although they hadn’t considered using assisted reproductive technologies, they ended up being a lifesaver for her.

Lyudmila believes that legislation should be transparent and understandable so that women and men who sacrifice their health for their country have the opportunity to have children in the future.

“To be honest, I’m afraid of the phrasing that suggests I’ve defeated death — I haven’t defeated it. I understand that I have to keep living, and I’ll never be able to raise children the way Sergei would have.”

This August, Serhii will become a father again.

Interested in topics about Ukraine’s medicine? Take a deep dive into some of our related coverage.

Why Americans come for treatment in a warzone

Why I’m giving birth in a warzone

Plastic surgery to cover up war wounds

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By: Oleksandra Poda

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

POLAND STRIPPED ZELENSKYY OF ITS HIGHEST STATE AWARD: On June 19, Polish President Karol Nawrocki revealed that Zelenskyy had been removed from the Order of the White Eagle, Poland’s highest state honor which former President Andrzej Duda awarded Zelenskyy in April 2023. This came after Zelenskyy gave a Ukrainian Armed Forces’ unit the honorary title of “Heroes of the UPA”. UPA was a nationalist organization that participated in the mass killing of the Polish civilian population from 1943 to 1945.

In response to Poland’s reaction, top ranking Ukrainian officials, like Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Sibiga and Head of the President’s Office Kirill Budanov, have declined or returned other awards granted by Poland.

Zelenskyy’s attendance at an international conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction is in doubt because of the conflict. The conference is scheduled to take place in Gdańsk, Poland on June 25-26.

HUNGARY LIFTS BAN ON UKRAINIAN MEDIA: On June 19, Hungarian Minister of Social Affairs and Culture Zoltán Tarr announced that the ban on blacklisted Ukrainian online publications would be lifted. In September 2025, the Orbán government banned 12 Ukrainian online portals in response to Kyiv’s decision to block access to several Hungarian publications accused of spreading Russian propaganda. Orbán called this a “symmetrical move.”

Tár underscored that the objective is to guarantee that the Ukrainian community and refugees in Hungary have dependable access to information in their native language, as well as moving towards normalizing bilateral relations between Budapest and Kyiv.

UKRAINE CUTS OFF CRIMEA: On the night of June 20, a road bridge across the Henichesk Strait in the Kherson region was struck by Ukrainian forces. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the bridge is being used for enemy military logistics.

In the past two weeks, there have been several strikes on bridges connecting occupied mainland Ukrainian territory with Crimea. These strikes have damaged the strategic bridge in the Chongar area, the bridge between Henichesk and the Arabat Spit, and the Armiansk Bridge between Crimea and the mainland.

Russians are deploying pontoon bridges to restore connection. According to Navy spokesman Brovdi, Kyiv is seeking to isolate occupied Crimea. The strategy of cutting off Crimea and Russian troops from supplies of ammunition, fuel, and reinforcements is necessary to make it physically impossible for enemy forces to hold the peninsula. After two weeks of strikes on bridges and roads, Russian freight traffic along the main supply route has already fallen by 71%.

DOG OF WAR:

The downpour caught Baroness the dog and her owner right in the middle of their daily walk. The dog got completely soaked and begged to be picked up, but her owner refused because her paws were dirty. Despite her regal name, Baroness was left down.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Kateryna.