A phony peace process to appease Trump
First, we have to start with what Ukrainians would consider victory. Working backwards from that, we see that the ongoing diplomacy is a charade.
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The 28 point plan presented by the Russians and Witkoff raises an interesting question: what outcome would Ukraine see as a victory?
It’s worth thinking about because it informs what the Ukrainians want most, and what they would be last to barter away in any peace negotiation.
If you look at what Zelenskyy, his diplomats and his senior officials have said over the last three years, you come across a few recurring criteria. Only one relates to territory – many have said they want the restoration of the 1991 borders, which include Crimea.
Beyond that are two other commonalities: firstly, that there be prosecutions for Russian war crimes, and secondly, that Ukraine must be given alliances or security guarantees that prevent a war like this from ever happening again.
The 28 point plan ran over all of these criteria. And yet Ukraine did not reject the points outright. Over the last couple weeks, Ukrainian diplomats negotiated with this patently unacceptable proposal as the unfortunate backdrop.
Russia’s proposal suggests it has not abandoned its original plans of subjugating Ukraine: prohibiting it from joining NATO, limiting the size of its military, and impunity for war crimes.
All these things imply that Ukraine will not be a sovereign country, able to make its own decisions about its own diplomatic relations, how it defends itself, and how it seeks justice.
Even as Zelenskyy and his colleagues are negotiating, it seems like they are performing a theater of sorts. The theater has an audience of one: Donald Trump.
And it shows how much U.S. foreign policy has fallen over the last year. A year ago, the United States was contributing significant military and humanitarian aid to its Ukrainian ally. Now Donald Trump is making nastier and nastier demands, even as he holds less and less leverage.
Research by the Kiel Institut shows that American humanitarian and military aid has dropped off a cliff, and has been essentially non-existent by mid-2025.
Trump cannot threaten to withhold what he does not provide.
All that is left to withdraw is intelligence sharing, and some limited areas of diplomatic support.
The real threat to Ukraine is not that America stops supporting Ukraine. The real threat is that the U.S. affirmatively aligns itself with Russian interests worldwide.
The Wall Street Journal had an eye opening story on Friday outlining the Americans in Trump’s orbit who are drooling for this inconvenient war to be over so that they can profit on Russian business deals.
So Ukraine is having to perform a dance – to play along as if their counterproposals (totally unacceptable to the Russians, by the way) are part of a normal diplomatic process.
The reality is that it is mostly for show: the Ukrainians are forced to play along with negotiations so that they do not look as if they are the impediment to peace, so that they don’t give Trump a reason to turn on them.
Since the beginning of the war, supporters of Ukraine have said that Ukrainians are fighting a war on behalf of Europe – indeed, on behalf of the entire free world.
Holding the line with the Trump administration illustrates this point once again.
Officials in Russia and the United States are determined to join hands for worldwide economic cooperation and deepening ties.
This is an outcome that would be terrible for Europe and democracy in the world
The only thing in Witkoff’s way is those pesky Ukrainians… and their desire for victory.
NEWS OF THE DAY:
By: Tim Mak and Aidan Stretch
We built today’s News of the Day section using Ground.News, a media literacy tool that helps cut through the fog in this time of disinformation. The website and app filters through thousands of news stories every day, merging them by topic to help show which topics are being covered by left and right.
That’s why we’re partnering with Ground.News for this issue. It features bias detection, provides funding transparency about news outlets, and compares headlines so you can see how different outlets are framing the topic.
It’s how I found a conservative publication with a similar outlook to my column above, allowing me to find out what those in Trump’s camp might be thinking about the ongoing negotiations.
Interested in improving your news diet like I have? Subscribe to Ground News and get 40% off their Vantage plan!
ZALUZHNYI SPEAKS OUT, CAUTIONS ZELENSKYY GOVT: Ukraine’s former Commander in Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi – now the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK – cautioned Ukraine’s government in an op-ed for The Telegraph.
“We are in an extremely difficult situation, where a rushed peace will only lead to a devastating defeat and loss of independence,” he wrote. “Peace, even in anticipation of the next war, provides a chance for political change, for deep reforms, for full recovery, economic growth and the return of citizens… But all this is impossible without effective security guarantees.”
His rare public intervention follows a reshuffle of Ukraine’s presidential office amid an ongoing corruption scandal. He is considered a potential challenger to Zelenskyy in any future election.
RUBIO, WITKOFF, UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATS IN FLORIDA: American and Ukrainian negotiators are meeting today to push forward the peace process, a development that conservative news outlets seem largely disinterested in, per Ground.News:
UKRAINE STRIKES RUSSIAN OIL TANKERS: Ukrainian underwater naval drones hit two sanctioned Russian vessels as they headed to a Russian port to load up with oil, Reuters reported. They were empty at the time they were struck, a Ukrainian official said. While off the coast of Turkey, neither vessel was in Turkish waters when they were hit, CNN reported.
DOG OF WAR:
This is Bandit, a puppy whose mom was evacuated from the Sumy region. He has stayed over at our colleague Tania’s place for two weeks as they look for a permanent family for him.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Tim
Aside from the Trump-Putin Phoney-Baloney “peace” plan, I appreciate your aligning with Ground News. I have been subscribing to it for over a year (with one of my marked areas of interest being Ukraine 🇺🇦), and have found it to be a wonderful non-biased news aggregator. Well done!
Liked, restacked & shared to Bluesky (as usual). Sad, but unsurprising, to see the US's withholding of aid - still the cards were on the table when the Trump regime treated Zelenskyy so disgracefully in the Oval Office. One has to wonder whether the kompromat 💩🥫holds over Trump is sexual in nature...