Could tomorrow's vote see the 'Orbanization' of Germany?
Germany's elections on Sunday could affect support for Ukraine. A Ukrainian in Hungary warns German voters that there are severe costs to Hungary's 'Orbanization' model.
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Kiril Demchenko has lived in Hungary for four years, so he knows how a country changes when its authorities flirt with the Kremlin, as Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban has done.
Kiril says after the start of the full-scale invasion, Hungarians began to treat Ukrainians badly, especially older people who see Russia as an ally, not an aggressor.
“I saw a situation where a man in his 50s heard a girl speaking Ukrainian in a store and hit her – just because she was Ukrainian,” he told The Counteroffensive.
Could Germany be set to turn against Ukraine too?
The country will elect a new parliament on Sunday Feb. 23, and polling suggests the pro-Russian, far-right AfD party could gain record support.
Elections in Germany could change the balance of power in Europe by determining the direction of the continent's politics. If the pro-Russian far-right AfD gains significant support, it will threaten EU unity, weaken support for Ukraine, and open up more opportunities for Kremlin influence.
Germany risks repeating the path of Hungary, which has already become a pro-Russian center in the EU, which could change the fate of Ukraine and the future of European security.
Kiril is 25 years old and from the Dnipro region in Eastern Ukraine. In 2021, he and his friends decided to move abroad for a better life. At first, they considered Poland, but felt that finding a job there would be too challenging, due to the many Ukrainians who had already done the same.
He finally decided on Hungary, with which Ukraine has a visa-free regime, because his friend's sister had moved there six months earlier. Kirill lives near Budapest, the Hungarian capital, in Balassagyarmat town, and has found a job. But Hungary is not the country of his dreams.
"I thought I was going to Europe, that there would be progress, that everything would be good, but when I arrived, I felt that there was such stagnation, that people were living in some kind of past... There were old houses everywhere, and I had to go to Budapest to buy food [the city where he lives does not have a wide selection of goods]," Kiril said.
Under Viktor Orban's leadership, Hungary is gravitating toward Russia, combining conservatism with authoritarianism in a process called ‘Orbanization.’
Orban has concentrated power around himself, blocked EU sanctions, and slowed military aid to Ukraine. Despite the status of parliamentary democracy, he makes key decisions alone. He has also promoted Russian narratives around the war in Ukraine: he maintains close ties with the Kremlin, and meets regularly with Putin.
Kiril says that Hungary suffers from inflation and low wages, partly due to the prime minister's policy of rapprochement with Russia.
"Hungarians are complaining about this... They don't like Orban. Hungary is dependent on Russian oil and gas, and while other countries were looking for alternatives to get rid of Russian influence, Orban was signing supply contracts," Kiril said.
If a far-right party wins influence in Germany, they could forge closer ties with Russia. In the recent Germany campaigns, security and Ukraine have been drawn to the center of the election debate.
Friedrich Merz and his conservative CDU/CSU bloc lead in the polls with 29% and have the best chance of forming a coalition.
The conservative bloc supports EU unity, and NATO. Their leader, Friedrich Merz, a long-time opponent of Angela Merkel, pursues right-wing economic policies, but actively supports Ukraine, in particular calling for the use of long-range Taurus missiles against Russia.
At the same time, the right-wing populist pro-Russian Alternative for Germany is polling a record almost 21%.
AfD’s policies include leaving the EU, restoring Nord Stream 2, decreasing aid to Ukraine, and lifting sanctions against Russia – changing Germany's foreign policy to repair relations with Russia. The party is regularly criticized for its ties to Russian special services and support for pro-Russian rhetoric.
In a recent debate, Merz called out AfD Alice Weidel:
"You say we are not considered neutral by Russia. No, because we are not neutral! We are on Ukraine's side. We are defending the values we share. Your words this evening only confirm for me that I will do absolutely everything to prevent you from ever taking political responsibility in this country."
The AfD could increase isolationist sentiment in Germany and the EU, reduce military and financial aid to Ukraine, create a split between Eastern and Western Europe, and strengthen pro-Russian voices, according to Ihor Todorov, a professor at Uzhhorod National University in western Ukraine.
The Social Democratic Party of Germany, who have been polling 15%, and the Greens, who are predicted to get around 13% of the vote, could be key players in coalition negotiations. The SPD has been cautious about military aid to Ukraine, while the Greens remain strong advocates of support, pushing for more weapons and a tougher stance on Russia.
The question for Germans looks likely to be whether Merz will form a coalition with the left of the far right. Although the far right will almost certainly not win outright, it is likely to have its best result for the first time since World War II.
The AfD is known for its radical populist rhetoric. They actively oppose LGBT people and illegal immigration, calling for harsh measures such as closing borders and deporting migrants.
Investigations by The Insider and Der Spiegel confirmed that the Kremlin financed the AfD party through pro-Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Sergienko, who acted as an intermediary. The journalists found out that the AfD not only received cash from Moscow but also coordinated its initiatives and speeches with Russian curators. One such project was a lawsuit filed by the party with the German Constitutional Court to block military aid to Ukraine.
In addition to funding, Russia is using anti-war movements in Germany to weaken support for Ukraine by spreading disinformation, messages about "peace talks," and the “futility” of military aid.
Among the most vocal supporters of Alternative for Germany is Russian far-right political philosopher Alexander Dugin, an ideologue of Russian imperialism, sometimes called “Putin’s brain” in international media.
Elon Musk, a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, is also a supporter of the AfD, openly praising them in the media, calling them the “last spark of hope” for Germany in a newspaper article.
"The AfD's unabashed populism contributes to its popularity, especially in the eastern German states, which are poorer than western Germany. Sometimes you can hear notes of nostalgia: everything was fine when the Soviet Union was there... In addition, their popularity is growing because of Angela Merkel's government's less-than-successful migration policy," Todorov said.
The main question of the election is whether Merz will be able to win by a large margin and prevent the far right from gaining more than 20%. Roland Frodenstein, director of the Brussels Freedom Hub, said a coalition with the Greens would maintain a tough stance on Ukraine and Russia.
Kiril, a Ukrainian who watched Hungary as it descended into pro-Russian rhetoric and action, warns of the fateful consequences that will occur if Germany follows a similar path.
“If they choose a pro-Russian party, I don't even know what will happen... It will probably be worse... I'm afraid that then Russia might not stop at Ukraine and go to Europe,” warned Kiril.
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NEWS OF THE DAY:
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
U.S. MAY CUT STARLINK FOR KYIV’S TROOPS: The U.S. could block Ukraine’s access to Starlink amid its refusal to accept a deal over minerals, Reuters reported. The issue was again brought to the table when the U.S. envoy on Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg visited Zelenskyy this Thursday. Starlink is a vital element for Kyiv’s defense since it provides a stable internet connection and communications to the frontline.
Meanwhile, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation Andrii Kovalenko reassured that nobody plans to cut off Starlink’s connection to Ukraine. Besides, the Ukrainian military has “other alternatives.”
ZELENSKYY MAY SIGN MINERAL DEAL TODAY: The U.S. and Ukraine could reach an agreement on a deal that would cede rare earth mineral rights to Washington today, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump considers it compensation for the U.S. military aid provided to Ukraine, even though it does not offer any security guarantees for Kyiv. Kellogg has reportedly built trust with Zelenskyy and played a significant role in finalizing the deal during his visit to Kyiv.
At the same time, Zelenskiy is not ready to sign the deal on rare earth minerals, according to Sky News. The draft agreement allegedly does not reflect a partnership in the deal. Instead, it contains only unilateral commitments by Kyiv.
U.S. PROPOSES NOT TO CALL RUSSIA AGGRESSOR IN UN RESOLUTION: The United States has drafted a UN resolution on the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine that has no mention of Ukraine's territorial integrity or criticism of Moscow's actions, AFP reported. It mourns "the tragic loss of life in the Russia-Ukraine conflict" and "urges a swift end to the conflict and continues to call for a lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia."
EU TO DELIVER €20 BILLION OF MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE: Europe is preparing a new package of additional military aid worth about €20 billion, which is expected to be agreed upon on the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reported. Europe is rushing to provide Ukraine with the necessary assistance and security guarantees because of Trump's initiative to achieve a quick peace on unfavorable terms for Kyiv.
The package includes artillery ammunition, air defense systems, deep-precision missiles, drones and other weapons. However, approval may be delayed due to possible blocking by Hungary and elections in Germany.
TAIWAN PRESIDENT PLEDGES 3% GDP ON DEFENSE: President Lai Ching-te said that in the face of Communist China’s threats toward the island nation, his government would seek to spend at least three percent of GDP on military spending.
Taiwan also seeks to establish itself as a critical part of the “democratic supply chain,” especially as it comes to semiconductors. The project comes as world trade is beginning to bifurcate more towards a democratic chain and an autocratic one. Lai made these comments to kick off the Halifax security forum in Taipei this past week.
DOG OF WAR
Today’s dog of war is Mariana’s traveling companion, who was sitting calmly when Mariana visited her parents. The dog didn’t bark even once — just curiously observing other train passengers and breathtaking scenery from the window.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Mariana
Timely article. Having just returned from Germany last week, the public still supports the Ukrainian cause by a good majority. Germany is hosting 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees. While the far-right AfD may well poll around 20% this Sunday, ALL established parties have pledged NOT to enter into a coalition with them. Ultimately, I expect some kind of coalition between the CDU, the Greens, and probably the SPD. My only immediate fear is that if a 3-party coalition is required for a governing majority, it may prove unwieldy and fractious in rule (like the last coalition). But their support for Ukraine is rock solid.
Velshi as I write is reporting on the war, and I wish I could force everyone in the US to watch what's going on in Europe. Orban is Trumputin's hero (after Putin himself), and I'm truly baffled how his cult can keep shooting themselves in the foot. Thanks again for the reporting.