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Back-to-school celebrations to be scaled down… Poland ramps up domestic defense production… Russia tries to overwhelm Ukrainian government agencies… Trump invites Russia to G20 meeting.
Editor’s note:
Our sister publication, The Arsenal, covers defense technology and regulation in depth.
This cross-posted article explores the growing threat posed by jet-powered drones to Ukrainian cities from a technical perspective.
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OUR LEAD STORY:
KYIV, Ukraine - Russians are constantly adapting their tactics to inflict as much damage as possible on Ukrainian cities while keeping civilians in fear and tension.
Over the past five days, Russians have been launching mostly jet-powered Shaheds one after another. As a result there were more than 10 air raid alerts each day in Kyiv, accompanied by explosions and the sounds of air defense systems operating.
Russia has launched about 2,500 drones as of August 30, said Serhii ‘Flash’ Beskrestnov, the president’s adviser on the development of defense technologies. Meanwhile, in July, that number stood at 1,500.
The Geran-3, the Russian jet-powered counterpart to the Shahed, is capable of flying at about 300 km/h. But the Geran-4 flies at a speed of 500 km/h, which can outpace Ukraine’s interceptors. Ukrainian companies are now racing to develop interceptors capable of countering this threat.
For the Russians, developing jet-powered drones came with serious challenges. Standard Russian Shaheds are made of very light and inexpensive material, and the drone’s assembly itself is also of poor quality. When they first tried to attach a jet engine to a standard kamikaze drone, the drone simply fell apart. Starting with the base model, the Geran-2, the Russians worked on the Geran-3 and then the Geran-4.
“The bottom line is that the jet-powered Shahed is nothing like the regular one... It looks different on the outside. Different materials are used in its construction. It is much more expensive than the conventional one,” Maksym Klymenko, CEO of Amazing Drones, which creates interceptors in partnership with Japan’s Terra Drone, told The Arsenal.
The main difference between the new Geran jet models is their higher speed, which can exceed 450 km/h, whereas a standard Shahed flies at about 180 km/h.
However, jet-powered Shaheds have a shorter range because it is difficult to accommodate a large fuel tank, and the fuel burns up faster to maintain high speeds.
“They won’t have a range of thousands of kilometers, but they’ll still be able to reach Kyiv,” Klymenko said.
Yesterday – on July 2 – Russia carried out yet another large-scale combined attack. What set this attack apart was that most of the drones used were jet-powered – a clear sign that Moscow is betting on this technology and gradually scaling it up.
“I wouldn’t draw the conclusion from a single attack that Russia has already fully transitioned to mass production [of jet-powered suicide drones]... Part of the effect could be the accumulation of a certain batch and its simultaneous deployment… To draw a conclusion, we need to see this pattern repeated in several attacks,” an air defense soldier from the Kyiv region, who wished to remain anonymous, told The Arsenal.
The challenges of creating faster drones
Drones that operate at high speeds require durable materials and a specialized design. They take longer to assemble and are also more expensive.
While the standard version of Russian Shaheds costs about $20,000–$50,000, the cost of a jet-powered version exceeds $100,000, according to Klymenko.
There are few weapons capable of countering jet-powered Shaheds right now. These include high-speed interceptors — which are still in development — and anti-aircraft missile systems.
“Missiles are one way. They can’t wait. They can’t park. You just shoot them and you either hit the target or you don’t, but you can’t really chase the target [with a missile],” Tomas Petru, founder of Alatyr Group, the developer of a hybrid rocket-electric vertical take-off and landing interceptor , told The Arsenal.
The most common quadcopter-type interceptors, such as the P1-SUN, Sting, or Terra, are unlikely to reach speeds of 400–500 km/h, according to Klymenko.
Greater battery consumption is required to reach a high speed, reducing the flight time of such an interceptor. In other words, flight time may drop from 15–18 minutes to 6–8 minutes, Klymenko said. Everything will need to be done faster — from detection to the destruction of the drone.
With an enemy drone flying through air defense sectors more quickly, pilots will also face certain challenges, especially when it comes to maneuvering the interceptor, which loses stability more easily at high speeds and has a limited flight time. In conditions where most control is manual, interception will become very difficult for pilots.
In early June, General Cherry, a Ukrainian drone developer, and the R&D company STRIX announced the joint development of a propulsion system for General Cherry’s Bullet interceptor drone. The propulsion is working on chemicals that generate thrust through the burning in the engine. The company has also made design changes to accommodate higher speeds. The company did not disclose the specifications of the updated drone and did not provide a comment to The Arsenal.
Among other companies working to make their interceptors faster are Wild Hornets, the makers of one of the most widely used interceptors, the STING, and Amazing Drones, which is collaborating with Terra Drone to increase the speed of interceptors in order to counter jet-powered drones.
What are the solutions?
“Generally, it would make sense to have a faster interceptor than your target is,” Petru said.
One way to make a drone faster is to add a solid-fuel rocket motor. “The biggest difference is that the rocket motor has about 700% more energy per kilogram than a battery,” Petru said.
But there are many factors that influence the interceptor’s speed, not just the battery or engine power alone.
A drone’s ability to accelerate is most affected by the speed of its propeller blades; when they approach the speed of sound in the air, the drone loses its ability to fly any faster.
And the difficulties Ukrainian manufacturers face in upgrading interceptors to take down jet-powered drones also expose certain weak spots in Russia’s use of high-speed Shaheds.
For one, the increased speed of the Shahed alters its maneuverability and flight behaviour, forcing pilots to adapt, and it changes the time required to lock onto and destroy a target.
There have already been cases of jet-powered Shahed drones being shot down by interceptors at average speeds. This happens when a Russian drone loses speed in certain areas and flies at a lower speed of about 350 km/h, at which point it can be shot down.
“Maybe someone somewhere is already reaching those speeds. But they need to work on the battery, the motors — they need to be more durable — and the propellers,” Klymenko said.
Even now, despite the lack of scalable technology capable of flying faster than jet-powered drones, the military is finding ways to shoot down such targets. The strategic placement of radars, pilot training, and technical improvements to interceptors have made this possible, Kot, an air defense officer who operates drone interceptors, told The Arsenal.
However, large-scale combined attacks and the drones’ flight altitude remain weak points — recently, they have been flying at altitudes of 4,000–5,000 meters, making them harder to shoot down, Kot added.
In addition to increasing the interceptor’s speed, interception tactics and the performance of the entire air defense system are also important.
“If the target is moving faster than the interceptor or close to its maximum speed, the pilot doesn’t simply catch up to it. He has to work to intercept it—reach the meet point in advance, correctly assess the trajectory, time, and speed margin,” the anonymous air defense soldier said.
AI in interceptors could be the answer to the proliferation of jet-powered suicide drones, helping to automatically lock onto targets and reduce response time to threats, the soldier added.
Interested in reading more stories about defense tech? Check these out:
How Ukraine is cutting off Russia’s land corridor to Crimea by Zoriana Semenovych and Tim Mak
A Ukrainian nuclear program: Could it be done? by Mariana Lastovyria
The Stolen Ukrainian Military Dolphins of the Black Sea by Alessandra Hay, William Glover Weiss and Tim Mak
Editor’s Note:
Our sister publication, The Arsenal, covers defense technology and regulation in depth.
This cross-posted article explores the growing threat posed by jet-powered drones to Ukrainian cities from a technical perspective.
If you’re interested in Ukrainian and European defense technologies and innovations, check out The Arsenal!
THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:
By Mariana Stadnyk
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
BACK-TO-SCHOOL CELEBRATIONS TO BE SCALED DOWN: Celebrations marking the start of the school year, which begins on September 1, will be held only if the security situation allows it, Ukraine’s Prime Minister announced after a meeting with Ukraine’s Education Minister. Before holding the events, each locality must determine the risk of holding celebrations in their area and there should be no mass events in regions at risk of Russian attacks. Russia continues a massive wave of strikes on the capital, which started on August 27.
The Kyiv Regional Military Administration has also recommended refraining from holding mass celebrations in the Kyiv region and advises that schools deciding to hold celebrations should conduct them in the shelter if possible.
POLAND RAMPS UP DOMESTIC DEFENSE PRODUCTION: Poland spent $8.15 billion on defence procurement from Polish companies and joint ventures with central European countries last year — four times more than in 2022, according to Reuters. Poland is seeking to minimize dependence on foreign suppliers to reduce risks linked with the delivery.
Poland has one of the biggest armies in the EU — with over 220,000 active servicemen. This year it allocated about $61.45 billion in core defense spending, almost reaching the NATO goal of allocating 5% of GDP to defense by 2035.
RUSSIA TRIES TO OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT AGENCIES: Russia started Operation Postman in May, sending complaints to Ukrainian government agencies and law enforcements, RBC-Ukraine reported. More than 500 complaints were sent, only under 100 received responses.
Russians use personal information of real Ukrainians and send emails with complaints on their behalf. They base complaints on issues existing in Ukrainian society with the aim of overwhelming the bureaucratic system and feigning public discontent.
One of the campaign’s targets is the Ukrainian army. The complaints launched can lead to inspections into military units and their commanders. It distracts the units from other tasks and discredits commanders. In this operation, Russia may be testing which agencies respond to fake complaints and which complaints are likely to trigger an official investigation.
TRUMP INVITES RUSSIA TO G20 MEETING: The Trump administration invited Russia’s Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov, to the G20 meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, Politico report. The decision was opposed by EU officials, who also refused to take a photo with Siluanov. This is the first time Russia attended the forum in person since 2022.
The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held one-on-one talks with his Russian counterpart and discussed Trump’s peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine. Bessent underscored that no economic relief would be provided for Russia until the peace is reached.
DOG OF WAR:
This little corgi made sure the parents were caffeinated enough before the first day of school.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Anastasiia