How a drought drives Iran’s protests
Protests sparked by drastic inflation are raging all over Iran. Mehdi has spent years watching Iran’s water shortage drive the country to a tipping point.
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“Before, the younger generation was complaining about having no future or no employment… but now [the issue] is much more fundamental: It’s about food,” said Mehdi, an agriculture expert who was born and raised in Iran.
Mehdi left Iran decades ago, but is now witnessing his country at a boiling point. As someone who has studied the space deeply, he believes water and agriculture are at the center of it all.
Since late December, massive protests have surged across Iran’s 31 provinces.
Iranians poured onto the streets after the Iranian rial hit its lowest-ever value against the U.S. dollar. But even before runaway inflation, water was already running short in Iran. Years of mismanagement and drought have driven up food prices and made everyday life harder for Iranians nationwide.
The rising cost of food in Iran is a multi-faceted problem that includes export policies, sanctions and the depreciating currency — but Iran’s water shortage has only accelerated the crisis. Scarcity has made water significantly more expensive for farmers and has reduced their crop yields, contributing to the rising food inflation which has now reached about 64 percent, according to Fanack Water.
Now, the country is in a state of severe unrest as the government suppresses resistance: at least 500 people have been reported dead according to human rights groups and over 10,000 detained as protests flood through the streets.
Trump has been threatening military action against Iran as protests intensify and death tolls climb. The Iranian government has responded by shutting off access to the internet, making it incredibly difficult to get news out of the country.
Beyond Iran, this serves as an example of how resource shortages, layered onto fragile economies, can accelerate a crisis to the point of potential collapse.
Iran’s water management policies changed course drastically with the Ayatollah-led regime that came to power in 1979.
Under the Shah modernisation and industrialization were the state’s priority, meaning that agriculture fell by the wayside. However, after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, which had drawn support largely from rural areas, the new regime made agricultural expansion a cornerstone of their political agenda.
Agricultural expansion required arid areas to be irrigated and led to the construction of wells and dams, and ultimately resulted in the damaging overuse of Iran’s water resources.
As a child, Mehdi watched his family manage a farm in Iran, but the situation for farmers back then was different. Today, the required distance to drill to obtain water is three times what it was when Mehdi was a child — he doesn’t even remember his relatives having any problem getting water, but today “water is like gold,” Mehdi said.
In 2025, Tehran, a city of roughly 10 million people, was facing its driest fall season in over 50 years. Over the past 20 years, Iran’s renewable water resources have declined by over 30 percent, according to Geopolitical Monitor. This past year, rainfall was so scarce that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian made an announcement in November that if rain didn’t come, parts of Tehran could face evacuations.
The drought, along with the spiraling currency, has exposed the government’s mismanagement, and driven protesters onto the streets.
“Without water, farming doesn’t mean anything,” Mehdi said.
Mehdi’s own family in Iran has felt the effects of these water shortages.
His brother who lives on the fourth floor repeatedly has water cuts and is forced to take showers in the middle of the night, when the apartment’s water consumption is low. His sister, meanwhile, often finds that her fridge is empty due to the rocketing food prices the water shortage has caused.
Mehdi has tried to convince his brother to leave Iran, but with no success.
Mehdi believes that it’s not just the overuse of Iran’s water resources but the misallocation of them — overprioritizing water-intensive industries rather than basic needs. Companies linked to the government began growing water-intensive crops like watermelon around Lake Urmia, a lake which largely dried up due to the agricultural activity surrounding it, the dams and climate change.
Those who refused to stay silent were immediately punished.
In 2018, Iranian hydrologist and environmentalist Kaveh Madani left a teaching job in London to become the deputy head of Iran’s environment department. However, four months into his time in Iran things turned sour.
Madani had publicly criticised the government’s water management policies and was detained amidst a government crackdown on environmentalists in Iran. After a few days he was released and fled the country.
Protests over similar frustrations of rising food prices erupted in Iran in 2017 and 2018. Over 20 people were killed and hundreds arrested.
In the last three years alone, Iran’s food prices have tripled and water has only become more scarce. Mehdi has witnessed whole families sorting through the trash for food. Reports of children fainting at school due to hunger have come out of Iran just last year.
“I wouldn’t call this food insecurity – I would call it a food crisis,” he added.
Last week, the Iranian government announced a plan to roll out payments worth the equivalent of $7 USD to try to simmer protests.
But it’s not only water mismanagement which is running the country dry – leaky pipes and failing infrastructure reportedly account for more than 40 percent of treated water being lost before it can be used.
“[The sanctions] impact everything…even when I went to go get a new ID card, after the documents were finished they said it would still take two years to just print the ID card,” Mehdi said.
As the protests in Iran became increasingly violent, the regime cut off Iran’s internet: 90 percent of internet traffic in Iran has disappeared, according to The Guardian.
Mehdi hasn’t been able to talk to his family in multiple days. Their last conversation was about how unlivable life had become in Iran.
“When I check their Whatsapp, I just see that their ‘last seen’ was a few days ago,” Mehdi said.
*Mehdi’s name was changed in this story for security purposes.
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NEWS OF THE DAY:
By: Yelyzaveta Kolos
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
TRUMP THREATENS NEW TARIFFS ON COUNTRIES TRADING WITH IRAN: Trump announced an immediate 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, a move that could sharply raise costs for imports into the United States.
The details on how defined “doing business” were not clarified, neither was the way the tariff would be enforced. But this could hit Iran’s major trade partners such as China, India, and Turkey.
The move shows Washington’s readiness to use trade pressure against countries tied to its geopolitical rivals. As Russia, Iran and China deepen connections, such measures could affect global markets and indirectly shape the balance of support and resources linked to the war in Ukraine.
NORTH KOREA DEFENDS RUSSIA AT UN AFTER STRIKE ON UKRAINE: North Korea criticized a UN Security Council meeting convened to discuss Russia’s recent missile strike on Ukraine, calling it prejudiced and unfair. Pyongyang’s UN ambassador defended Russia’s actions as self-defense and accused Western countries of politicizing the discussion.
The reaction underlines deepening ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, as North Korea backs Russia diplomatically and militarily. This growing alignment helps Russia offset international isolation and sustain its war effort.
GERMANY TO FUND DELIVERY OF RHEINMETALL LYNX VEHICLES TO UKRAINE: Rheinmetall will supply Ukraine with its first Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicles, with deliveries expected to begin in first half of 2026. The initial batch will include five vehicles, funded by the German government and is estimated to be worth around 50 million euros.
The Lynx vehicles will be adapted to Ukraine’s military needs and equipped with a two-man Lance turret. Further deliveries are planned, with the possibility of producing additional vehicles inside Ukraine.
The deal strengthens Ukraine’s ground forces and helps modernize its army and sustain resistance against Russia’s ongoing invasion.
US VETERANS GROUP MOBILIZES SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE:
American Veterans for Ukraine works to unite and empower U.S. veterans in support of Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression. The organization focuses on raising public awareness and using veterans’ voices to build understanding of why Ukraine matters to the United States.
The group also prioritizes protecting continued U.S. government funding for Ukraine by engaging policymakers and the public. By leveraging veterans’ credibility and leadership, the initiative aims to keep Ukraine firmly on the US political agenda during the war.
DOG OF WAR:
Today’s dog of war is this cutie that Liza met when she was working in the cafe during a long power outrage in her district. The puppy was patiently waiting for its owner to finish her work.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Alessandra and Jacqueline
Iran has spent billions of dollars, probably tens of billions of dollars, on building military proxies and terrorist groups around the Middle East instead of developing and improving the lives of its people. In this it is similar in many ways to Russia and it is no surprise they have worked together towards similar destructive ends. Iranian drone technology is responsible for killing thousands of Ukrainians. Iran is now using those military proxies which are flooding into Iran to help slaughter thousands of Iranians and maintain the regime. Ukraine would greatly benefit from the collapse of the Iranian regime but they are facing extremely brutal and violent forces which are willing to kill as many Iranians as necessary to stay in power.
It's thrilling to witness the development of the Counteroffensive cadre. Your reporting across the globe lets us understand how people like us are affected by the chaos and cruelty that seem to be covering the earth. I really wish we in the US had a positive impact on the conflicts on which you're reporting. Thank you all for your perseverance and please stay safe.