If Trump wins
A first for The Counteroffensive: a fictional short-story laying out a Ukrainian future if Trump wins the presidential election this Tuesday.
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Olya’s parents were speaking quietly at the round dining room table.
The door was closed.
There was a crack between the jamb and the wooden door where she could see through. They spoke quietly and she couldn’t make out the words, but it sounded as though her father was trying to convince her mother of something.
Olya’s younger brother, Oleh, kept pushing, trying to get close enough to see, but she held him at arm’s length. He was little for a six-year-old, twelve years younger than her. It wasn’t difficult to manage.
“Stop it, I can’t hear,” she hissed.
“But I wanna see! I can’t see!” Oleh said, his voice rising dangerously. “I wanna see!”
“Shhhh! You’ll ruin everything!!”
Real world ties to this short story: The New York Times reports that 57,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war; half of Russia's losses, but with a lower population to draw from. “American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains.”
Oleh burst into loud tears and inhaled, beginning a loud and piercing wail of despair just as the kitchen door swung open.
“Kids? Come inside, your mother and I have something to tell you,” Olya’s father said.
His tone forestalled her from pinching Oleh, but she still gave her obnoxious younger brother an evil look.
For some time Olya had known something would change. America had elected a new president in November, a man named Donald Trump. From what she understood, this was bad news for Ukraine.
The last few weeks had been extremely chaotic. More strangers than she’d seen since the war’s beginning flowed through their town; refugees from the east, journalists, and Ukrainian military men; the youngest group of conscripts she’d ever seen. Frantic words became common on news programs, concepts she didn’t quite understand presented by panicked news hosts such as ‘betrayal’ and ‘humiliation,’ ‘disarmament,’ and ‘surrender.’
Since the war started, she had been corresponding with a boy in America named Taylor. Taylor was her age. He lived in Alabama and he liked wearing maroon and white. It was beautiful, the way he talked, words were long and languorous. This was how they spoke in the American South, he told her. He asked if there were dialects in Ukraine, and she told him about how people talked in the West, and in the East.
They’d been talking for three years. When he reached out to her on Instagram they’d both been freshmen in high school. Through Taylor she’d seen America go from interested and supportive of Ukraine to suspicious and hostile, seeing corruption and conspiracy at every turn.
Taylor’s parents were Republican and she asked him sometimes why they seemed to support Russia. His explanation always amounted to the propaganda Olya had been hearing since she was a child; that Ukraine belonged to Russia, that Ukraine was a fascist state, the same tired lies.
At least with the Russians, Olya thought, you knew where you stood; a country of liars lying to themselves and to others for gain. It was different with Taylor’s family, though, with Americans. Why they would believe lies about her country, Olya didn’t understand.
He was also nice, and offered her a window into his America. A world of pickup trucks and BBQs, and baseball. To Olya, such an existence was a dream. Like watching Instagram reels. A place where it never snowed. Taylor had a kind face, too, and was handsome, and charming. He cared about her, and so she was able to overcome his family’s confusing political views.
Taylor’s parents worked for NASA, and Olya’s parents both worked in drone manufacturing. In her head, some day when the war was over Taylor could visit her and see Ukraine in person, and maybe she could visit him, and see America. Everyone wanted to see America, everyone wanted to live in a place free from war, so powerful that Putin couldn’t touch it with his greedy, grasping fingers.
Her father’s face told a different story. It brought her into the present like a ship weighing anchor in the ocean. In his eyes, Olya could see the product of some anguish. And her mother’s cheeks were wet.
He lifted Oleh into a chair, at the table, and Olya took a seat, too. It was like so many family meals they’d eaten over the years, but there was no food. It felt serious.
“Do you remember we talked about moving a while ago?”
Olya did remember. They’d talked about moving to America, and they’d talked about staying and rebuilding after the war finished. The future had seemed full of limitless possibilities.
“Well, your mother and I have been talking, and there’s an opportunity for me — a very good opportunity — at a drone company in New Delhi. Tata Industries.”
“New Delhi? Where is that?” Olya said. In her head, it was something like New York or New London or Paris, one of those American cities founded by immigrants. Her thoughts flicked quickly but briefly to Taylor; finally meeting him in person, being able to touch his face with her hand. Was New Delhi close to Alabama? Olya knew the states and where they were but had no real frame of reference for them; Ukraine was about as big as Texas.
“It’s in India, dear,” her mother said.
“India?” It took Olya a moment. Of course. The country, India. New Delhi was its capital. She’d known that. Then the shock set in. “India!?”
“Tata’s a great opportunity for us,” her father said. “India’s been watching the war in Ukraine and hopes to modernize their forces. Also, and this is important, they’re nuclear armed. We’ll never have to worry about being invaded again. They speak English.”
The family sat together in stunned silence. Olya’s father had created it with his unexpected announcement, and nobody, for a long moment, knew what to say.
“Why can’t we go to America,” Olya said. “They’re nuclear armed. They need help with drones, you said so yourself! And you could make more money there!”
“That’s true,” Olya’s father said quietly, his eyes downcast. “But immigration’s frozen. They’re not letting anyone in. Actually I’ve heard some families are being forced to leave. The Rudchenkos, you remember them? They wanted to extend their temporary visa and it was denied. I think they’re going to Canada.”
“Not even for drone experts?”
“Not even for people like me, no.”
“Then we should stay,” Olya said. “I don’t want to go to India.”
She’d never thought about India, was the thing. It’s not that she had anything against the country. But she was comfortable at home. The only place she’d uproot her life for would be the U.S., to the best place in the world. Surely the Americans understood that Russia hated America more than any other country, and would welcome Ukrainians. And surely they understood how desperately Ukrainians needed American support!
“We can’t stay, you know, when the Russians come here they’ll take your father and me away, and send you off to be reeducated,” Olya’s mom said.
“I don’t wanna go,” Oleh said. “I don’t wanna go to New Delly and I don’t want to go to Merica. I want to stay with my friends.”
“We have to go,” Olya said. “Mom and dad are right. We can’t stay or they’ll —” she caught herself. “We have to go. But India…”
“This is the way of the world now,” her father said. “Maybe it always was. The best we can do is go someplace strong and hope things work out. Work hard. Be good people. Contribute to our new community. Evil and tyranny won’t last forever. They always collapse in on themselves under their own weight.”
Oleh burst out crying. Olya didn’t feel much better, but held back her anxiety well enough to play the role of big sister.
Neither of them wanted to leave their home. That night a feeling of bitterness was planted in them that would fade but never quite disappear for the rest of their lives. It was a feeling of deep betrayal that lay lodged in the spirit of a million fleeing Ukrainian families.
Being attacked by your enemy was one feeling. Being abandoned by your supposed friends was a much deeper cut. It would take Olya years to unpack how that anger impacted her life choices, how cheated she felt of the life in Ukraine or America that had been promised to her.
She never forgot how that night made her feel.
LIVE CHAT WITH ALEX VINDMAN ON MONDAY:
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NEWS OF THE DAY:
LACK OF MANPOWER UKRAINE'S GREATEST CHALLENGE. Ukrainian soldiers are projected to sustain operations for “6-12 months of war,” according to the U.S. officials. Ukraine initially planned to use newly created brigades for defense in the east and south or as a reserve for a counteroffensive in 2025. However, these forces were ultimately sent to the Kursk region.
Approximately 57,000 Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly killed. This figure is about half the number of Russian casualties, but given Ukraine's limited human resources, these losses are particularly significant. Meanwhile, Russia, despite facing its own troop shortages, continues to have 25,000 to 30,000 new recruits each month.
RUSSIA ARMS N. KOREANS: 7,000 soldiers from North Korea have been deployed to the border with Ukraine, armed as infantrymen, Ukrainian military intelligence reported. The newly arrived troops have received sniper rifles, grenades, mortars and assault rifles, along with "some" night vision devices, thermal imagers, scopes, and binoculars.
The DPRK troops are undergoing training at five military grounds in the far east of Russia. Their deployment to the Ukraine border was facilitated by at least 28 military transport aircraft from the Russian Aerospace Forces.
84K NEW CHECHEN VOLUNTEERS: Ramzan Kadyrov, the Putin-appointed leader of the Chechen Republic, plans to send more than 80,000 Chechen 'volunteers' for the war against Ukraine. He said that the republic had allegedly fulfilled “all the tasks set by the Kremlin to avoid mobilization.”
This follows Russia's attempts to involve more representatives of national minorities to compensate for personnel losses. Moscow fears that announcing the mobilization could lead to social tensions and protests in major cities.
MOSCOW SENTENCES FMR U.S. CONSUL EMPLOYEE: Russia has sentenced a former employee of the American consulate to four years and 10 months in prison for "secret cooperation with a foreign state." Shonov was detained in 2023 for allegedly passing information about Russia's war in Ukraine to the U.S. for payment.
In September, Russia expelled two U.S. diplomats, accusing them of acting as intermediaries for Shonov. In response, the U.S. State Department clarified that Shonov was a private contractor who collected press reports from publicly available Russian media. His sentencing took place alongside a series of arrests of U.S. citizens in Russia, which the Kremlin can use for a new prisoner swap.
DOG OF WAR:
Today’s dog of war is a charming pup that enjoys walks in the park of Mariana’s hometown in the Volyn region.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Mariana
 | A guest post by
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You know, that story will play out similarly all over the world, and none of them will have happy endings.. The Ukrainian family of 5 boys (ages 14, 12, 10, 6, & 4) and their parents will NEVER be able to go home to Kharkiv if that orange mobster... err... monster...gets into office, and we will have to figure out how to get both sets of parents who have been taking care of the only assets they have in the world out to safety. And we wonder, how long will the UK extend Ukrainian refugee status to the stream of people still leaving? Our local council is asking for MORE hosts for the Ukrainians trying to get into the UK; our family has been with us since May 2022. As an expat American with 5 grown children and 2 grandchildren still living in red states, I am scared to death, sick to my stomach, and inordinately anxious about what could happen next week.
This story made me so sad; while I am hopeful I’m also anxious as hell. Reading about the gains being made by the *spits* Russians is very difficult and I’m not even involved! I’m not a religious person but I’m doing the equivalent of a lot praying for just and positive outcomes all around.