Imagining the Russian empire's collapse
Imagining the Russian empire's collapse
The Russian empire is made up of many nations, forced under authoritarianism to exist under a single state. Some Ukrainians believe Ukraine won't be safe until Russia's empire is broken apart.
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Russia has long been a prison of nations, using force to suppress unique nationalities and cultures.
Nowadays, Russia consists of 21 national republics and almost 200 ethnic groups, each with its own distinct cultures. The majority of these populations have been subject to attempts to systematically assimilate them. Independent movements are suppressed before they can gain momentum.
Many Ukrainians – and independence activists fighting for freedom – believe that the Russian empire will continue its violent expansionism unless it breaks up into its component national parts, when all its cultures and peoples are given self-determination.
The Chechens became the first victims of Russia’s imperial violence in the history of modern Russia. Few understand this better than Aset Sabb, whose people have struggled for freedom from Russia for generations.
She was just three years old in 1994 when Russian forces invaded her homeland, the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. At the time, the Chechens tried to declare independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But Russia refused to grant it.
The newly-proclaimed republic soon found itself under an economic and transportation blockade since Moscow did not want to lose power over Ichkeria (commonly known as Chechnya, but this name is used by the Russians to cement its status as part of the Russian Federation).
Unlike other former empires, Russia has failed to decolonize. It is still a classic empire, continuing the extraction of resources to finance the conquest of new lands.
As long as Russia exists in its current form as a vast empire, it will not abandon its policy of expanding the ‘Russian world.’
Even if Ukraine wins the war, if the Russian empire does not disintegrate, new aggression against Ukraine and other countries is inevitable.
In 1994, Russian aircraft began bombing Chechen cities.
“When we hid in the basement, my mother used to play accordion so that we wouldn't hear the sounds of the missile attacks,” Aset Sabb said, recalling her childhood spent under constant shellings.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Boris Yeltsin initially attempted to build a democratic federation. However, these aspirations were dashed when Yeltsin decided to send Russian troops into the North Caucasus.
Aset Sabb has only faint memories of those days.
She recalls her father taking her to a dilapidated school and walking through streets that had been reduced to rubble.
In the end, despite the massive terrorism against civilians and Russia's military superiority, the Russian army was defeated. At that time, Ichkeria had a chance to revive its own state, restoring independence in 1996.
They elected a new president and tried to rebuild destroyed towns and villages. Aset's father became the first deputy minister of culture, working alongside the new government to promote the Chechen language and culture, attempting to free it from Russian influence.
However, this period of hope did not last long. Ichkeria enjoyed a fragile peace for three years before a new war erupted, which was called the Second Chechen War, bringing Vladimir Putin to power. As head of the Russian government, he was responsible for this invasion of Ichkeria. The republic was forcibly dissolved in 2007.
It seems likely that Russian authorities are deliberately mobilizing these ethnic groups to reduce their numbers and avoid the backlash that might result from the mass conscription of ethnic Russians.
Ichkeria wasn’t the only republic that sought independence from Russia. After the Soviet Union collapsed, national liberation movements spread across the Russian Federation.
In 1990 Tatarstan, a former Soviet republic located 500 miles east of Moscow, declared its independence and later held a referendum on becoming a sovereign state. Although Russia resisted recognizing Tatarstan’s independence, the Kremlin made concessions, unlike with Ichkeria. In 1994, Tatarstan became more autonomous with its own president, constitution, and citizenship.
Siberia in the far East of Russia also wanted more autonomy. It holds more than 80% of Russia's major natural resources, but is quite poor, as all revenues generated are deposited in the political center.
In the West of Russia, some citizens of Karelia have declared their desire to join Finland, which it borders. Nearby Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland, but still run by Moscow, has repeatedly expressed a desire for increased autonomy, and even complete secession from Russia. It was annexed by the USSR following the occupation of part of Germany and the end of World War II.
And this is by no means a complete list of potential secessionist movements.
Since Putin became president in 2000, nationalist sentiments in many regions across Russia have been significantly suppressed. Russia has made substantial profits from exporting its natural resources – many of which lie in these territories – using the funds to build up its army, strengthen its security forces, and intensify its propaganda efforts.
After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched, Russia has been systematically recruiting members of ethnic groups from the country's poorer regions to fight in Ukraine. These groups include Dagestanis, Tatars, Buryats, and Chechens under the command of Putin's puppet in Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, who was approved as president of the republic.
In response to the full-scale war against Ukraine and the Kremlin’s domestic policies, leaders of Russia's national movements, many of whom have established governments in exile have become more active.
Notably, they have united under the platform ‘Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum,’ founded by Ukrainian Oleh Mahaletskyy. Their primary mission is to achieve complete de-imperialization and decolonization of the country, ultimately leading to its disintegration into multiple independent states.
This platform has now been joined by representatives of 41 future states that would like to emerge at the end of the empire. Among them is Aset Sabb, who in September 2023 became the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of her government in exile. The representatives are working together to develop mechanisms for dismantling Russia and declaring the independence of the republics.
In particular, one of the first such steps for Aset Sabb, along with other Ichkerian officials, is to negotiate with UN countries to adopt a resolution similar to the one adopted by Ukraine in 2022, recognizing the Chechen Republic as occupied by Russia.
The Ukrainian government has tried to internally push through a similar bill regarding Tatarstan.
“I started to have a hope that with joint efforts we can finally get rid of the ‘Russian bear,’ which is constantly, systematically putting us at risk [of war]. Not just Ukrainians, not just Chechens, but the entire East European region,” Aset said.
Due to a long-standing policy of suppressing liberation movements, nationalist activism in Russia's republics remains relatively marginal. According to the founder of the Forum, Ukrainian Oleh Mahaletskyy, this is largely because many people in each region lack a strong sense of self-identification and are ‘indifferent to the flag under which they live.’ It was especially evident in the Kursk region, where the local population was notably passive during the Ukrainian army's invasion.
“The greatest advantage of our enemy [Russians]— its size — is also its greatest weakness. Despite their vast resources, they lack unity and stability, making them very fragile. The vast distances and the number of oppressed peoples and regions could, with the right approach, lead to the downfall of this empire,” Oleh said to The Counteroffensive.
Nationalist movements within Russia are unlikely to thrive on their own. Even if some oppressed peoples develop stronger national consciousness, it will likely be suppressed without external support. Oleh believes that Ukraine should take a leading role in supporting these movements, as it is crucial for national security and to prevent the possibility of future aggression if Russia remains in its current form.
According to Oleh, the West remains cautious about the potential breakup of Russia, reminiscent of its concerns during the collapse of the Soviet Union. The fragmentation of the Russian Federation into separate republics could significantly destabilize the region. This might lead to conflicts between the new entities, a global economic crisis, uncontrolled migration, or even the risk of Russian nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists.
In 2022, the future leaders of the hoped-for new states agreed to renounce nuclear and all other weapons of mass destruction. They also agreed to equitably distribute Russia's assets and debts, including reparations to countries affected by its aggressive military actions over the past 30 years.
But as long as Russia remains a rigid empire, many migrants from captive nations, including Aset Sabb, continue to dream of returning to a free homeland.
“I will do whatever I can to rebuild the Chechen state,” she said.
NEWS OF THE DAY:
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands. Today we’re devoting this whole section to our reporting on Zelenskyy’s meeting with Biden tomorrow:
ZELENSKYY PRESENTS UKRAINE VICTORY PLAN TO BIDEN THURSDAY: Zelenskyy announced that his plan for victory is to strengthen Ukraine's position and force Russia to the negotiating table, as Putin is not ready to discuss peace on fair terms. But the elements of this plan are still being kept secret until Zelenskyy and Biden meet.
The Counteroffensive reached out to Ukrainian and American experts to take a closer look at the expected key points of Ukraine's plan for winning the war against Russia.
1. PEACE THROUGH LONG-RANGE STRIKES: In order to implement Zelenskyy's Peace Formula, which includes the liberation of Ukraine's territories and the withdrawal of Russian troops, Ukraine must strike the aggressor's territory, explained Oleksandr Merezhko, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Policy.
One of the most anticipated components of the victory plan is the lifting of the ban on Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory with Western long-range weapons. “We have enough weapons to hold the front line, but not enough to liberate occupied territories,” Merezhko said.
U.S. officials still do not support the idea of lifting the ban on Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory with Western weapons, as they “have not heard a convincing argument from Ukrainian leaders” that it is worth the risk of escalation with Russia, the Washington Post reports.
2. UKRAINE'S INVITATION TO NATO: Andrii Yermak, head of the Presidential Office, during his visit to the U.S. has mentioned that part of the victory plan is an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO.
“This element of the plan is questionable, as Ukraine did not receive this invitation at the NATO summit in July 2024. In addition, a NATO member state such as Hungary may be against it,” Ukrainian political analyst Yevhen Mahda said.
3. ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON RUSSIA: “We cannot compete with Russia only by using modern Western weapons,” Merezhko explained.
Since Russia has learned to circumvent Western sanctions, the economic component of the plan may include toughening sanctions against Russia, as they are no longer sufficient.
4. GUARANTEES OF FURTHER SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE: It’s significant that Zelenskyy is going to meet with the current president and both presidential candidates.
“For Ukraine, which is preparing for its third winter under the Russian missiles, it is crucial to gain the support of any future administration,” said Elina Beketova, Democracy Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. However, it may be more difficult to gain Trump's support, amid his statements about Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman in history” and promotion of his own peace plan.
COW OF WAR
Today we unexpectedly have a Cow of War, which Myroslava saw in her parents’ yard.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Oleh
Thank you for the work you are doing.
Excellent reporting - I feel for the people who had been subjugated for centuries. But one thing at a time, Biden must go all in with the Ukrainian victory plan.