Putin’s adrenaline crash

What Putin’s comment about the end of the war means, and the psychological victory that has already ensured for Ukrainian forces.

Tim Kennedy punches Yoel Romero during their middleweight fight on September 27, 2014. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Tim Kennedy was one of the world’s most famous Mixed Martial Arts fighters.

But it isn’t his career, but instead the story of why Kennedy quit fighting that is relevant here.

In September 2014, he fought Yoel Romero, a fierce Cuban wrestler. Midway through the fight, Kennedy was dominating. As the bell signaled the end of the round, he was landing devastating strikes to Romero’s head, nearly knocking him out.

As the third and final round started, Romero didn’t rise to fight. His corner, desperate to stall for time to give their man more time to recover, feigned confusion.

Kennedy thought he had won; after all, that is what should have happened. Instead, the referee permitted the fight to go on.

Romero stood up, late, and a bewildered Kennedy was knocked out soon thereafter.

Yoel Romero celebrates his TKO win over Tim Kennedy in their middleweight fight. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Think of the last time you had an angry, no-holds-barred confrontation with someone. It doesn’t necessarily have to have been physical.

But after the initial anger and adrenaline rush subsides, you’re left with shaky hands, a pounding heart, and a sort of light headedness.

That’s an adrenaline crash. When your body senses a fight is over, it tries to return to normalcy, but often that sudden withdrawal leads to exhaustion — even depression.

Kennedy claims that was the end of his career: “My heart got broken.”

In his mind, the fight had been over. When this was reversed, he was unable to get in the competition mindset again.

I suspect the same will soon happen with Russian military forces.

Vladimir Putin grimaces at the Saint Yekateina’s Hall of the Great Kremlin Palace after the Victory Day parade, on May 9, 2026 in Moscow, Russia. (Photo by Contributor/Getty Images)

Vladimir Putin is so often credited with being a mastermind and a cunning, calculating ex-spy. That reputation is largely exaggerated, and his comment this week indicates why.

Last weekend he endured the humiliation of a tempered Victory Day parade in Moscow, enabled by Zelenskyy’s promise not to attack it. In the aftermath, he said he thought “the [conflict] is coming to an end.”

I had dinner with a Ukrainian military officer this past week, and he told me no Ukrainian soldier is likely to take this claim seriously. Ukrainians won’t believe his lies and machinations.

Who might? Only the people who are prone to taking Putin credulously: his own forces, his own people.

I can only imagine what a hungry Russian soldier on the frontlines might do with Putin’s latest claim. No one wants to be the last person killed in a war. Psychologically, an indication by your boss’ boss’ boss that the war is ending is sure to dull any motivation you might still have to go on.

Meanwhile, this is all happening amid Russian battlefield and political losses – the first round of good news for Ukraine in a long while.

1. Just last night the Moscow region came under the largest drone attack since the start of the full-scale war.
   
   Monitoring channels reported up to 300 Ukrainian drones approaching from several directions. Numerous electronics plants were struck, as was a fuel transfer station and an oil depot. A cruise missile manufacturer — known for manufacturing projectiles that hit Ukrainian cities — was also hit.
   
   Simultaneously with the Moscow attack, occupied Crimea also came under a mass drone strike, where explosions were reported at the Kacha airfield, Kozacha Bay, Inkerman, and Sevastopol.
   

2. Orban has been wrested from power in Hungary, depriving Russia of its closest ally inside the European Union, and paving the way for more economic support for the Ukrainian economy.
   

3. Russia has some 1.3 million killed, wounded and missing, the UK estimates. And more continue every day.
   

4. At least 40 percent of Russia’s export oil export capacity has been stopped due to Ukrainian strikes, preventing them from fully experiencing a windfall from Trump’s war in Iran.
   

5. In April, Russia suffered the first net loss in territory since August 2024, the Institute for the Study of War reported.

Putin is trapped, and he’s just given his own troops one hell of an adrenaline crash.

NEWS OF THE DAY:

By Oleskandra Poda

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

U.S. LET RUSSIAN OIL SANCTIONS WAIVER EXPIRE WITHOUT RENEWAL: The waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil stranded at sea expired at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on May 16 without renewal. After the waiver expired, restrictions preventing countries like India from purchasing Russian oil were reimposed. Two Democratic senators pushed for the waiver not to be renewed, saying that there was no evidence it had succeeded in easing price hikes for Americans.

The previous license had been extended twice despite public statements from the U.S. Treasury saying it would not be renewed.

LATVIA WARNS OF AIR THREAT NEAR RUSSIAN BORDER: On the morning of May 17, Latvia’s National Armed Forces warned of a possible threat to the country’s airspace in several regions near the Russian border after an unidentified drone was spotted in the sky. The military deployed additional air defense units to the eastern border.

This is the second such incident in three days. On the night of May 14-15, Latvia’s National Armed Forces also warned about a possible airspace threat near the Russian border in the Krāslava, Ludza, Balvi and Rēzekne regions.

1,000-FOR-1,000 PRISONER SWAP ENTERS NEXT STAGE: On May 17, Zelensky confirmed that negotiations on the next stages of the 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange are ongoing. The first stage took place on May 15 — where 205 soldiers from each side returned home.

Prisoner swaps remains the only tangible result of the ongoing attempts at peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

DOG OF WAR:

This dog looks like it’s so tired of the office life and just wants a little vacation.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Tim and Oleksandra