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Norway seized Russian ship to secure $4.2 bln for Ukraine… Ukraine negotiates with U.S. on Patriot production license… Moscow airports wary of Ukrainian drone threat…
Editor’s note:
Once a month, we pull together what has changed in this war while actually living through all the difficulties it brings.
Our reporters are based in Kyiv and are experiencing Russia’s latest barrage of attacks. Russia has bombed the city for the last seven nights in a row, but our reporting doesn’t stop.
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OUR LEAD STORY:
KYIV, Ukraine – The military situation changed less on the frontline and more behind it in the last month of summer, with Russia continuing its “terror bombing” attacks on Ukrainian cities as its troops are unable to advance on the battlefield, keeping up its increased use of jet drones to evade air defenses.
The last week of August was especially brutal, as Russia relentlessly bombed Kyiv seven days in a row.
In our August military update, we highlight the most important developments, explain how Russia is shooting down Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo missiles, why Ukraine continues targeting Russian retailers, and how Ukrainians have been quietly liberating villages in the South.
Ukrainian assault forces advance in the South
While the Russian military has failed to break through to the city of Slovyansk in its efforts to occupy the remainder of the Donetsk region, Ukrainian forces have been advancing in the South, on the border of three regions: Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk, according to an extensive report by Ukrainska Pravda. The operation itself started back in May, but the Ukrainian military kept quiet about it until now, revealing that more than 170,000 acres and 26 villages have been liberated.
It was the last operation planned by former commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskiy, with Ukrainian Assault Forces commander Oleh Apostol overseeing the operation. The goal was to thwart a planned Russian assault on Orihiv and push the Russians out of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Strategically, Ukrainians are fighting to keep the Russians from getting any closer to main regional centers like Dnipro and Zaporizhia. The latter has already fallen within the range of Russian drones, with enemy FPVs targeting civilians in the city. The Counteroffensive offers an inside look at civilian life in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv in our recent reporter’s notebook.
One of the units active in the operation is the 148th Separate Artillery Zhytomyr Brigade, providing necessary support for the assaulting forces.
“The main objective of our brigade is the artillery support of assaults and damage to enemy’s forces and equipment. In addition, we work with HIMARS systems, destroying targets on a tactical and operational level,” said Serhii Kolesnychenko, Communications Officer of the 148th Separate Artillery Zhytomyr Brigade.
Ukrainian forces had the element of surprise on their side and were able to infiltrate the rear of the Russian troops.
“This is an important development and proves that maneuver warfare is not dead. The principal goal should be to ensure that Ukraine succeeds at restoring operational maneuver before the Russians do,” Director of Innovation and Open Source Tradecraft and analyst at the Institute for the Study of War George Barros told The Counteroffensive.
The Russian command realized what was happening only during the second week of the assault, deploying the Rubicon drone unit to try and ‘firefight’ the Ukrainian advance. “The enemy is trying to hold the advance, moving in reserves and putting pressure with fire and infantry, so it is early to talk about the end of the operation. Combat is still in progress in the Oleksandrivskiy direction,” said Kolesnychenko.
Ukraine keeps striking Russian retailers, as Moscow targets groceries in Kyiv
After a successful drone campaign against Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, Ukrainian Unmanned Forces moved down the list and began hitting Ozon, the country’s second largest retailer, striking several warehouses in Russia.
Russian online retailers have been supporting the war in Ukraine by selling military equipment, with an investigation by The Counteroffensive uncovering an abundance of items on sale on the Wildberries website, including drone parts.
“Wildberries and Ozon represent nodes in Russia’s military logistics network. Destroying these facilities degrades Russia’s ability to sustain forces at scale in Ukraine. The strikes also significantly damage the Russian economy as small- and medium-sized businesses store significant amounts of merchandise within these facilities,” said ISW analyst George Barros.
Russia, meanwhile, has taken advantage of Ukraine’s shortage of air defenses and stepped up its terror-bombing of Ukrainian cities, using new Shaheds with jet engines and ballistic missiles to evade air defenses. Civilian life continues to be the primary target, with warehouses storing produce, medicine, and even books hit, resulting in shortages in grocery stores around Kyiv. Fozzy Group, which operates several popular supermarket chains like ‘Fora’ and ‘Silpo,’ was hit especially hard, with strikes resulting in shortages of common items, like fruits, vegetables, and even Coca-Cola in several stores.
Ahead of the new school year, Russian forces also targeted Ukrainian books, hitting 35 publishing facilities, as well as a second-hand book market in Kyiv, destroying millions of Ukrainian books.
Russians are shooting down Ukraine’s Flamingoes
Ukraine’s FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missile is the most powerful tool it has for deep strikes on Russian territory, but there are reports that Russia has managed to shoot many of them down in recent weeks.
An independent monitor that relies on open-source tracking data reported that Russia has shot down 10 out of 11 total FP-5 missiles since the beginning of July, showing that Russia’s air defense is proving effective against these missiles. This report could not be verified by The Counteroffensive team, as there are no official figures for comparison.
Some of the FP-5s still made it to their targets, though, with at least one striking the Vyatka Machine-Building Enterprise Avitek missile plant in Russia’s Kirov region, about 800 miles from the border with Ukraine. Satellite imagery showed the aftermath of the attack, with a factory workshop showing a large hole. The plant produces air defense systems and a wide variety of Russian cruise missiles used to ‘terror-bomb’ Ukrainian cities.
“The Flamingo missile flies very low, very close to the ground, which means that regular radars are not able to detect it. That’s why Russians use AEW&C, to be able to see the missiles,” aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap told The Counteroffensive.
Russia has only one type of airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) system—the Beriev A-50U plane (NATO code: Mainstay). The A-50 AEW&C system was developed back in Soviet times, with Russia modernizing only eight units in the 2010s, hence the ‘U’ designation. Even fewer are currently operational, since Ukraine has managed to shoot down two of these particularly valuable aircraft, prompting Russia to pull the remaining ones back from frontline duty—until now, apparently. Open-source intelligence estimates that Russia has only four operational A-50U aircraft remaining.
Working as ‘eyes in the sky’ for Russian air defenses, these planes patrol likely missile routes and spot incoming FP-5 cruise missiles early, giving Russian air defenses time to react. “They were flown specifically to intercept Flamingoes,” said Kryvolap.
Britain to help Ukraine produce its own Storm Shadow missiles
During his first visit to Kyiv, new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced the transfer of classified technical information to help Ukraine manufacture its own Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles.
“By receiving the ability to manufacture Storm Shadow missiles, Ukraine will be able to augment its strike packages to go after hardened targets that drones are not able to effectively damage,” Barros told The Counteroffensive.
In return, Ukraine agreed to provide the UK with access to a trove of secret battlefield intelligence stored in the new Avengers Lab database, created by Ukrainian military and used by Ukrainian defense companies to train AI models.
“The models trained on this data can identify around seven out of ten military targets in real time,” Professor of UAV technologies Bogdan Dolintse told The Counteroffensive.
With the future of warfare linked more and more to developments in AI, access to real battlefield data is proving essential for creating effective AI-powered weapons and equipment. Britain is the first foreign country to gain access to such a database.
Leaked Russian documents reveal Moscow’s elite doubt victory in the war
The Black Mirror hacker group has published an internal document from Russia’s Sberbank outlining possible scenarios for the Russia-Ukraine war. Sberbank CEO German Gref is said to have mailed the analytical document to an unidentified business figure considered “influential” within the country.
Dated April 2026, the memo lists eight possible scenarios for the development of the war in the near future, with the probability of Russia winning on its own terms estimated at only 7 percent, which is likely to happen in the next 1-2 years. A Ukrainian victory that would see Russia give up its seized territories is estimated to have a 2 percent chance. The scenarios seen as having a higher probability were a deal between the two countries involving help from U.S. President Donald Trump (32%) and a gradual dying down of fighting by both sides (22%). The most likely scenario was one in which the war is resolved diplomatically, and neither side achieves victory on their terms.
The author of the memo is unknown, and the points outlined in it rely on official statistics from the Russian government, meaning the analysis is skewed.
“Even assuming it’s real, it doesn’t mean it is representative of the Kremlin’s assessment,” Barros told The Counteroffensive.
But the economic difficulties for Russia detailed in the analysis have only intensified since the memo was written in the spring. Ukraine has drastically stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, crippling Moscow’s ability to refine oil into petroleum and causing massive fuel shortages across the country. The Russian government is still trying to address the shortage, extending the fuel export ban through September, as well as importing gasoline and diesel from other countries.
Interested in more coverage about the military situation in Ukraine? Read these stories:
With no Patriots, Ukraine builds missiles by Oleksandra Khelemendyk and Mariana Lastovyria
Five days of terror with Russian jet-powered drones by Anastasiia Kryvoruchenko
Russia turned our hometowns into hunting grounds by Oleksandra Poda and Oleksandra Khelemendyk
NEWSFLASH: Ukraine has a new defense minister by Oleksandra Poda, Mariana Lastovyria, and Petro Gordon
Editor’s Note:
Once a month, we pull together what has changed in this war while actually living through all the difficulties it brings.
Our reporters are based in Kyiv and are experiencing Russia’s latest barrage of attacks. Russia has bombed the city for the last seven nights in a row, but our reporting doesn’t stop.
That’s the level of journalism you won’t find in other newsrooms. If that’s the kind of coverage you like, support our team!
THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:
By: Oleksandra Khelemendyk
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
NORWAY SEIZED RUSSIAN SHIP TO SECURE $4.2 BLN FOR UKRAINE: On September 2, Norway stopped a Russian commercial vessel off the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard to enforce a $4.22 billion compensation claim for Naftogaz, a Ukrainian oil and gas company.
In 2014, Russia seized Naftogaz’s assets when it occupied Crimea, and in April 2023, the Hague ordered Russia to compensate the company for the losses, but it evaded responsibility for over three years. On Tuesday, Naftogaz’s lawyers applied to a Norwegian court to arrest and sell the cruise ship, Professor Molchanov. A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson called Norway’s seizure of the vessel an act of ‘piracy’.
Naftogaz also seeks to obtain compensation from Russia via Russian frozen assets in the U.S., the U.K., France, and Finland.
UKRAINE NEGOTIATES WITH U.S. ON PATRIOT PRODUCTION LICENSE: In an interview on the Today Show, Marco Rubio said that the U.S. is currently in talks with Ukraine regarding granting licenses to allow for the Ukrainian production of Patriot air defense missiles.
The issue was initially raised by Donald Trump on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Ankara on July 8. Later, Trump backtracked on his proposal and said that the U.S. has to be careful about giving lethal weapons to Ukraine. In late August, Ukraine received some Patriot missiles but is still experiencing a shortage. It also lacks air defense missiles for its F-16 jets.
According to Rubio, even if the talks are successful for Ukraine, setting up sufficient domestic production of Patriot missiles will take years.
MOSCOW AIRPORTS WARY OF UKRAINIAN DRONE THREAT: Three airports in Moscow suspended operations Wednesday night. The airports of Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo imposed restrictions for two nights in a row. In total, 329 flights were delayed and 43 were cancelled.
This came after President Zelenskyy warned international airlines that using Russia’s airspace will become increasingly unsafe due to increased Ukrainian drone attacks. This comes in response to a week of daily Russian drone attacks on Kyiv.
Foreign airlines have already cancelled at least 27 flights to and from Moscow on Wednesday, according to Russian media. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency claimed that Ukraine breached international law and promised to ensure that normal operations of the air transport system would be restored.
DOG OF WAR:
Terra was found by her owner at a pet shelter in the Kyiv region and brought to her forever home. Despite the bullet stuck in her body, Terra looks happy and seems to enjoy catching rays.
Stay safe out there!
Best,
Petro.
I hope the Ukrainians negotiating with the Trump administration are only doing it for appearance sake and not genuinely believing in getting the patriot production license. It is fool’s errand when the Republican Party is blatantly pro-Putin.
Excellent, honest reporting, as always. Stay safe, pups and people.