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U.S. offers Russia incentives in exchange for an energy ceasefire; Trump calls on Ukraine to change its president to reach a deal with Russia; Russia is planning assassinations of European def company executives; Assassination plots against the pm and DefMin were being planned in Poland.
Editor’s note:
Welcome to The Counteroffensive. Once a month, we step back from the daily headlines to explain what has really changed in this war, with the help of people who build drones, track Russian strikes and study the front line.
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Will this winter decide the Ukraine war?
The Counteroffensive’s Tim Mak joins Sky News’ The Defense Insider team to discuss the next phase of the war in Ukraine and the wider security outlook for Europe and NATO.
Virtual event | Tuesday, October 13
OUR LEAD STORY:
KYIV, Ukraine – Russia spent September intensifying attacks on Ukraine, with jet drones relentlessly launched to bring civilian life to a halt and plans for an inexpensive new missile that can be used to terror bomb Ukrainian cities. It also pushed its sabotage campaign deeper into NATO territory. Ukraine, meanwhile, was quietly retaking villages in the east.
In this month’s military review, The Counteroffensive spoke with drone manufacturers, defense engineers and a former British Army officer. They explained why Ukraine still cannot reliably stop Russian jet-powered drones, the weapons that Moscow is preparing next, how Russian sabotage is spreading across Europe, and how a covert operation named after an Italian composer pushed Russian troops back near Lyman.
The war is encroaching more and more on NATO’s borders
September provided the starkest proof yet that Russia’s war has spread beyond Ukraine. In a single month, Moscow was linked to sabotage and the recruitment of saboteurs in at least five NATO countries, as well as military provocations.
On September 1, Germany officially held Russia responsible for the attempted attack at Leipzig Airport in August, when a drone loaded with explosives was found near a Ukrainian cargo plane. In response, Berlin closed the Russian consulate in Bonn and terminated the lease on the ‘Russian House’ in Berlin.
“What we’re seeing now is a steady increase in the number of attacks and their [Russian] severity,” said Glen Grant, a retired British Army lieutenant colonel. “It means that they [Russians] think Russia is going to win. And it also means that they’re getting more resources, more explosives.”
The attacks increasingly target industries that supply weapons to Ukraine. On September 3, German police detained two suspects in connection with an attack on a weapons manufacturer in Munich. Meanwhile, Denmark accused Russia of recruiting Danish citizens to sabotage defense companies working with Ukraine. Estonia concluded that Russian intelligence ordered an August arson attack on the Tallinn office of Milrem Robotics, a military robot manufacturer.
After the paywall:
Why Europe should prepare for war;
How jet-powered drones paralyzed Kyiv;
The cheap Russian weapon that was originally Ukrainian;
The Ukrainian offensive campaign.