Should NATO shoot down Russian jets?

After recent airspace violations, NATO weighs following Turkey’s example by downing Russian jets. An Estonian military volunteer shares what it means for him and other small NATO countries.

Mart Kuusk never wanted to join the military.

He was such a staunch pacifist, in fact, that he feigned mental illness and spent time in a psychiatric facility to avoid being drafted into the Soviet military several decades ago.

To him, the label ‘unfit for military service’ felt like he’d hit the jackpot.

But everything changed when Russia invaded Ukraine. That’s when he realized Estonia could be next.

“To me, the picture is now black and white. If you come as a guest, you’ll be a friend. If you come as an enemy, you’ll be shut down,” said Kuusk, a volunteer in the Estonian Defence League.

Mart Kuusk, after 24 hours of training in the Estonian Defense League.

This September was a test for NATO and all of its member states, including Estonia.

Russia launched more than 20 drones into Poland from Belarus, and Poland shot some down. A week after the incident, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets crossed into Estonian airspace in the direction of the capital. They were ultimately escorted out of the country’s airspace.

It’s widely agreed among European leaders that Russia is challenging the alliance, probing reactions to increasingly brazen provocations.

The alliance’s next moves may determine if Russia dares, for the first time in NATO’s history, to attack it directly. If the world’s most powerful military alliance shows any fractures, it risks losing its cohesion, which could spark a global war.

Kuusk is seeing firsthand how high the stakes are.

For fifty-three years, he knew nothing of military service; he worked as an entrepreneur and enjoyed life as the father of three children. In his free time, he surfed and even rowed in the Atlantic Ocean.

Mart Kuusk and his comrades from the Estonian Defense League.

But Russia’s new aggression in Ukraine was a wake-up call for him. So he joined the Estonian Defence League, also known as ‘Kaitseliit,’ in March 2022. These are voluntary, militarized formations that are officially part of Estonia’s Defence Forces and number up to 30,000 people. The league comprises 16 military units, one in each of Estonia’s counties.

At 55, Kuusk became a machine gunner in a rapid response group, requiring him to take part in training sessions at least seven times a year. Some of those trainings can last a whole week, although they usually take place on weekends.

He’s already put in 300 hours of training to gain the basic skills of being a soldier. It all culminates in a 45-kilometer test in which he will carry his own ammunition and weapons while navigating mine-detection tasks, shooting and communicating while demonstrating professional competence. At his age, it is sometimes exhausting, although he sees it as a choice: You’re either prepared, or you die.

“We work on the same principles as the regular army. If there is a threat, we are the first ones who need to be available. Just three hours and I’ll be there, in Narva, in Võru,” he said, referring to Estonian cities on the border with Russia. “If my commander says it’s time to shoot, I’ll shoot.”

Estonians must be ready for any scenario. In the last year alone, Russia violated Estonia’s airspace at least four times and over a dozen times across NATO countries in general.

The country of just over one million people understands that its shared border with Russia could be the next target of Russian aggression. This is precisely why Estonia began building defensive lines over the summer, with bunkers and anti-tank ditches along its border, a move also followed by other Baltic countries.

Snow-covered concrete blocks stand as barriers on the border bridge from the Estonian city of Narva to Russia. (Photo by Alexander Welscher/picture alliance via Getty Images).

Estonia sees a “dangerous escalation” in the latest Russian provocation, since the Russian MiG-31 fighter jets, which are known to carry hypersonic ballistic missiles, lingered in the area for 12 minutes while flying close to Estonia’s capital, Tallinn.

This prompted Estonia to invoke Article 4, which provides for emergency consultations when the security of any NATO member is threatened. It was the second time that month that an Article 4 meeting was called.

In the wake of these incidents, Ukraine urged NATO to shoot down Russian military aircraft, noting that Turkey had done so back in 2015. At that time, a Russian Su-24 that had been used to bomb neighboring Syria was shot down after crossing into Turkish airspace and ignoring multiple warnings. The Russian pilot was killed.

“There was already high tension between Russia and Turkey [due to the conflict in Syria]. Turkey was already thinking, ‘Okay, we’re going to shoot them down.’ There was no warning shot,” Niko Orell, a former lieutenant colonel of the Finnish Air Force, told The Counteroffensive.

The world waited anxiously for Russia’s response. Since Turkey is a NATO member, the incident could have escalated into a full-blown war with the alliance. Instead, however, Moscow responded by slapping economic sanctions, targeting agriculture, construction and tourism. It also froze military contact with Turkey and stepped up support for the Syrian regime. The diplomatic situation eventually normalized.

“It’s annoying that these shitheads [Russians] are trying to test us. They’re following their goal to be as nasty as possible. But it’s not just a question of Estonia. It’s more a question for the whole alliance,” Kuusk said, reflecting on the Estonian airspace intrusion.

So far, a number of countries have said they are prepared to shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace, including Poland, Sweden, and Estonia.

Russian Su-24, which was shot down in Turkey in 2015. Source: EPA.

What stopped Estonia from doing that from the start?

Unlike Turkey, which ranks as the fourth-strongest military power in NATO and fields more than a hundred combat aircraft, Estonia has no fighter jets of its own.

Instead, the Baltic states are protected by NATO aircraft on a rotating basis as part of the Baltic Air Policing mission, aiming to provide a rapid response in the event of a threat. Until the end of November, that role was carried out by Italian F-35 fighters, which intercepted the Russian jets in the latest incident. Estonia’s ground-based air-defense resources are much more limited.

“NATO’s integrated air-defence system worked the way it’s designed to work. The Finnish air policing identified that the aircraft they saw carried no air-to-ground weapons [which could threaten ground targets]. Then the Italian air policing took over. When the MiG-31s left Estonian airspace, they were escorted by Italian and Swedish… fighters all the way to Kaliningrad,” Jaak Tarien, former head of the Estonian Air Force, told The Counteroffensive.

The decision to shoot a plane down could not be made by Estonia alone — it would require authorization by other allied countries.

Niko Orell, an ex-pilot and senior military officer of the Finnish Air Force, explained that it’s hard to tell whether an incursion into airspace is deliberate or a navigation error.

That’s why, from a military perspective, there are three stages before shooting down drones or aircraft: identification, a warning shot, and, finally, a shootdown if there is a direct threat.

The main response to flights violating NATO airspace has been to demand that they leave and escort them out.

“In my squad and in my unit, people are reacting to it quite calmly. That single case doesn’t matter so much; there is no need for emotions,” Kuusk said.

Mart Kuusk and his comrades from the Estonian Defense League.

NATO is now planning to revise its rules on defending its skies. One scenario under consideration is a shift from air policing to active air defense, according to The Times. This would mean that talk of shooting down Russian aircraft is more than empty rhetoric.

The EU also aims to establish a ‘drone wall’ to protect Eastern European countries from attacks by Russian or other countries’ drones.

Meanwhile, Kuusk and his comrades must remain prepared for anything, with no idea what tomorrow will bring. In the near future, he and his squad will head out for a new exercise involving the use of live ammunition.

“Russians are doing a good job of trying to unbalance NATO and distract the EU from Ukraine,” he said. “We are staying for our values. And our values are to support Ukraine.”

NEWS OF THE DAY:

By Zoriana Semenovych

NEW U.S. INTEL COULD BOOST UKRAINE STRIKES: The United States is preparing to provide Ukraine with intelligence on energy facilities located deep within Russia, including oil infrastructure, pipelines, and power plants.

At the same time, the U.S. is urging NATO allies to do the same and is considering the possibility of supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk and Barracuda missiles.

Intelligence, combined with more powerful weaponry, can inflict more serious damage on its energy infrastructure and deplete Russian air‑defense systems.

RUSSIAN MISSILE UPGRADES STRAIN UKRAINE’S AIR DEFENSE: Russia has likely upgraded its ballistic missiles to bypass air-defense systems in Ukraine, the Financial Times reports. The Kinzhals missiles and Iskander-M missile systems have been modified to alter their trajectory in the terminal phase of flight, making them harder to intercept. These enhancements allow Russian missiles to evade the Patriot air-defense system, the only one capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles.

Despite a lower number of launches, the missile interception rate fell in September compared to the previous month. This indicates a significant decline in Ukraine’s air defense capability to counter new Russian tactics, highlighting the need for constant adaptation.

NAFTOGAZ RECEIVED €300M LOAN TO SECURE WINTER GAS: The European Investment Bank is providing Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state-owned energy company, with a €300 million loan to purchase gas for the upcoming winter.

Due to Russian attacks, Ukraine has lost around 40% of its domestic production and is forced to increase imports in order for families to heat homes.

This year’s cold autumn in Ukraine underscores the importance of these measures. Without sufficient heat, Ukrainians face freezing apartments, cooking difficulties, and mounting stress — realities many have endured during the war. Zoriana writes this wrapped in a blanket, finishing her third cup of hot tea, waiting for the heating to come on.

DOG OF WAR:

Zoriana met this dog while she was walking to the supermarket after work. The cold autumn weather and the need to wait for his owner outside made him feel melancholic.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Mariana