The ‘Red Beaches’ of a Taiwan invasion
These are where Taiwan believes China could land troops. We visit them — and embed with the Taiwanese military — to explore topography, military planning, and politics ahead of a potential clash.
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Li Ming Zhong has been interested in Taiwanese nature since he was a little boy, when he ran next to the Tamsui River in Taipei and into a nearby forest, where he would sit for hours to observe the natural world.
His passion for nature inspired him to take several solo trips to remote landscapes, eventually leading him to become a high school geography teacher in Taipei.
Ming Zhong, 43, who goes by Willie in school to make it easier for his students to remember his name, has been a teacher for 21 years.
Yet, never did he think he would one day be analyzing Taiwan’s landscape for potential military landing sites as a Chinese invasion over the island looms.
“A ‘red beach’ is a place that is easy for [military landing craft] to land, and harder for [Taiwan] to defend,” Ming Zhong told The Counteroffensive.
Taiwan’s rugged terrain limits the number of viable locations for a Chinese military landing in the event of an invasion. However, there are between a dozen and 20 designated ‘red beaches’ across the island that are considered suitable for such operations.
Over the past decade, Taiwan’s defense ministry has been actively preparing its forces, conducting regular military drills to ensure they can respond swiftly and defend against potential simultaneous attacks by the Chinese military.
We were allowed to tag along for some of these drills.
Red beaches are characterized by being sandy beaches as opposed to ones with many rocks, Ming Zhong said, which makes it easier for the Chinese army to land on.
Most of these can be found on the West Coast, which is closer to mainland China, thereby reducing the time during which Chinese troops would be vulnerable during the passage across the Taiwan Strait.
What many are not aware of, Ming Zhong said, is that Taiwan has natural defenses that will help the island in the wake of an invasion.
The fact that the Taiwan Strait divides the island from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is an advantage because it gives Taipei time to respond, according to Ming Zhong. The Taiwan Strait is approximately 160 km wide at its narrowest point, and each crossing by a Chinese landing craft would take several hours.
The tide is also a natural advantage of the island, Ming Zhong said. The low tide around the West Coast city of Taichung prohibits big enemy ships from accessing the island, he added.
In addition, the capital city of Taipei is surrounded by mountains, which means that military tanks landing on the red beaches would have to cross them to reach the capital.
The People’s Liberation Army, the military of the Chinese Communist Party, has been ramping up military pressure over Taiwan since 2016, when the Democratic Progressive Party returned to office in Taipei and refused to endorse Beijing’s ‘One China’ framework. Despite never having governed Taiwan, the PRC views the island as a breakaway province, with China’s President Xi Jinping stating that reunification between Taipei and Beijing is inevitable.
Living in Taiwan, and facing the CCP’s constant threat, Ming Zhong was defiant:
“We should never be afraid of China. History has shown us: Taiwan has been easy to protect and hard to attack… but we need to be aware of the danger, and train ourselves to be ready when bad things happen.”
Amidst a possible Chinese invasion, Taiwan has been intensifying its defense strategy over the past years. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te announced a civil mobilization plan last year to recruit approximately 400,000 people, including active and former military personnel, as well as volunteers from the police and fire departments.
The Counteroffensive was able to observe a number of military exercises by the Taiwanese Air Force, Navy, Army, and Marines.
The war in Ukraine has opened the eyes of people in Taiwan on the importance of asymmetric warfare, Wu Tzu-li, an associate research fellow with Taiwan's military think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Counteroffensive.
Asymmetric warfare is a conflict characterized by a significant disparity in military capabilities and resources between the two sides, and where the weaker side uses unconventional methods to defeat its opponent.
The PRC’s military, which has about 2 million recruits, far surpasses Taiwan’s 215,000 force.
Ukraine has managed to stand out on the battlefield amid its use of drones, Wu said, which has inspired the Taiwanese government to assemble its local production of UAVs and to integrate them into its military strategy.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan’s drone inventory was small, with only a few hundred units of four types of drones. Yet, in 2022, Taiwan’s government launched the ‘Drone National Team’ program to recruit the country’s commercial drone makers and aviation firms to create a self-sufficient drone industry.
Did you know we have a sister publication that covers defense technology right from the battlefield? Here’s our latest piece on Taiwanese military technology and what they’re learning from the war in Ukraine.
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Lieutenant Colonel Liu Yongcheng, of the 23rd Fighter Squadron, has been monitoring the situation in Ukraine and assessing the need for Taiwan to rapidly deploy its air assets.
At the moment, he does not think it is possible to replace manned aircraft, such as the F-16 fighter jets, with drones, he told The Counteroffensive. Yet, he sees drones playing a significant role in the future, especially when combined with large airframes.
Javelin anti-tank missiles have also helped Ukraine push Russian forces out of Kyiv in the early days of the invasion.
Sergeant Wang Zhi Han of the 9th Marine Corps in Taiwan told The Counteroffensive that they have been familiarizing themselves with Javelin missiles to target enemy vehicles in the event of an attack.
Taiwanese Marines drill on the use of Javelin anti-tank missiles.
Ukraine and Taiwan share many similarities in their fight against two superpowers that are trying to conquer them, Francois Wu, the Taiwanese Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, told The Counteroffensive.
But “the economic power of Taiwan is much more important than Ukraine,” he added, because Taiwan has the know-how of semiconductors, which is kind of indispensable for the modern world.”
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry has been acting as a ‘silicon shield’ for the island. The term refers to Taiwan’s ability to deter China’s threat: China might not want to invade Taiwan and disrupt the worldwide trade in semiconductors, which is critical for modern electronics.
Taiwan currently dominates the global semiconductor market, accounting for 68 percent of the world's semiconductor manufacturing, and the industry contributes nearly 15 percent of the island’s gross domestic product.
The PRC has invested billions in efforts to match Taiwan’s production and has set targets of achieving 40 percent self-sufficiency in chips by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. Yet, it reportedly produces 16 percent of its needs and still imports over $400 billion worth of semiconductors.
While some believe this could be a motive for the PRC to invade Taiwan and maintain control of its semiconductor foundries, Beijing would be unable to achieve its goals if war left the infrastructure destroyed.
“The problem is that now this know-how is not a simple factory,” Zhizhong said. “The semiconductor industry is an ecosystem,” and the result comes from a combination of “all the major democratic countries in the world,” he added.
In recent years, the PRC has intensified its military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, simulating land strikes, sea assaults, and blockades, further heightening tensions between Beijing and Taipei.
In April this year, the Chinese military launched strikes in the East China Sea and simulated blockades close to key shipping lanes near Taiwan. The PRC spent about 7 percent of its defense budget — about $15 billion — on exercises in the Western Pacific in 2023.
Some experts interpret the Chinese drills as rehearsals for a potential blockade aimed at toppling the government in Taipei.
It is easy to quarantine the island, according to Ming Zhong, the high school geography teacher. Yet, the Chinese military “is not used to fighting in the water,” so they will struggle to remain in position for long if they are unable to act fast, he added.
In addition, amid the stream in the Taiwan Strait, one of the island’s biggest natural defenses, the summer months are the hardest to cross as the boats would be going against the direction of the stream, which would require more power, Ming Zhong said.
The winter months, December until March, are easier due to the stream, he added.
The Chinese would also have to take into account Taiwan’s rainy season, which runs from May to June, and typhoon months, which span from July until October.
The easiest months for Beijing to invade would be April and November, according to Ming Zhong.
There are already drones on some of Taiwan’s red beaches. But they are for civilian purposes: fishermen use them to carry their lines deep out into the strait, for a better chance of catching their harvest.
Xing Li, a retired civil engineer who fishes in his spare time, told The Counteroffensive at Zhuwei Beach that he thinks the space was designated a red beach amid its calm and flat waters, particularly from May to August.
Other designated red beaches in Taiwan include Linkou, Jinshan, Zhuangwei, Luodong, Fulong, and Linyuan.
Lieutenant Commander Lian Shaopu, head of an eight-boat squadron, is training his people to deploy sea mines to locations that the enemy could use to reach the island.
The goal is to slow down and disrupt a hypothetical Chinese offensive. Every week, their crews get together to understand the type of mines they are working with, he told The Counteroffensive.
The Air Defense Battalion has also included twin-mounted Stinger missiles, also known as the Dual Mount Stinger, into their training.
Marine Staff Sergeant Bao Wei Zhong, who has been in the military for 10 years, told The Counteroffensive that these weapons can fire two missiles simultaneously, enhancing air defense capabilities against targets such as helicopters.
A Taiwanese fighter jet pilot prepares to board his plane.
The Taiwanese public would be willing to defend the nation amid a Chinese attack, but the majority believe Beijing will not invade the island within the next five years, a poll conducted by Taipei think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, revealed.
However, Ming Zhong thinks the stakes are high. “As long as China remains undemocratic, they will always try to invade us. It’s only a matter of time.”
Approximately 68 percent would be willing to defend Taiwan. In addition, 64 percent said China’s “territorial ambition” poses a “serious threat” to the island. Yet, 61 percent said it was unlikely that the People’s Liberation Army would invade in the next five years.
For Ming Zhong, a Chinese invasion feels inevitable. As a communist state that restricts individual freedoms, the Chinese Communist Party sees democratic Taiwan as a threat, as its very existence could inspire Chinese citizens to imagine life in a free society.
In the meantime, Ming Zhong continues to share his expertise with his students, teaching them about Taiwan’s natural defenses.
Ming Zhong has been devoted to helping the next generation in Taiwan. One of the things he teaches his students is that they should never run away from their problems.
If the war comes, Ming Zhong will do everything to protect his motherland.
“We need to fight a war that wins the respect from the world. We need the world to understand us and stand for our country, even if the cost is high,” said Ming Zhong.
NEWS OF THE DAY:
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
TAIWAN TESTS NEW WEAPON INSPIRED BY UKRAINE: Taiwan has begun testing a new weapon that could bolster its defenses against a potential Chinese invasion: sea drones.
Inspired by Ukraine’s successful deployment of sea drones in the Black Sea, Taiwan is exploring this low-cost, high-impact technology to strengthen its maritime security. The remotely operated drones can carry explosives and are capable of targeting both ships and aerial threats.
“Uncrewed boats or vehicles have played a very significant role in the Ukraine war,” Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, told Reuters.
CONGRESS URGED TO RESUME SEARCH FOR DEPORTED KIDS: 30 members of Congress from both parties issued a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging him to maintain funding for the Conflict Observatory at Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab, which helps locate Ukrainian deported children.
Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) shut down the program at the end of January. After being forcibly shut down, Yale researchers lost access to a database of 35,000 children they had compiled over three years. Although the database was eventually handed over to Europol, the EU’s law enforcement agency, lawmakers have warned that the data could become outdated within weeks.
Nathaniel Raymond, the head of Yale’s researchers, told The Counteroffensive earlier that without HRL's work, Ukraine will lose access to four crucial capabilities:
Whereabouts of children that have been taken for re-education, adoption, military training, or similar purposes;
Names/files of children who have been made Russian citizens;
Number of children believed to have been sent to Russia for re-education; and
Forensic analysis of documents detailing how Russia makes these children citizens.
Moreover, according to the lawmakers’ letter, few organizations possess the same level of expertise in open-source investigations, collecting photos and videos of deported children, and working with Russian websites.
RUSSIAN OIL PRICES SURGE AFTER ISRAEL-IRAN STRIKES. Russian oil prices surged after Israel’s attacks on Iran raised fears of global supply disruptions, marking the largest intraday gain since the day after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Until Friday, Moscow’s oil revenues had been falling, with prices slumping below the $60-per-barrel price cap. But the renewed volatility sparked a rally on Russia’s stock exchange, with domestic oil and gold companies posting significant gains.
U.S. OPPOSES LOWERING RUSSIAN OIL PRICE CAP. The United States is resisting efforts to lower the G7 price cap on Russian oil, despite mounting pressure from European allies.
Ahead of the G7 summit, Bloomberg reports that sources familiar with the matter say the Trump administration opposes reducing the cap from $60 to $45 per barrel.
The cap, introduced in December 2022, was designed to curb Moscow’s oil revenues and weaken its ability to fund the war. It bars Western firms from purchasing Russian crude above $60 per barrel.
Despite U.S. resistance, other G7 members are reportedly prepared to move forward with the proposal without Washington’s backing.
DOG OF (PREPARING FOR) WAR:
A stray dog runs across military parade grounds before a Taiwanese Army drill. It did not stop to tell us his name!
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Tim
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Love the writing here and the way this article starts out with one young boy alone with his own peaceful thoughts (on a beach and in the adjacent forest) contemplating nature and then how the article eventually expands to consideration of superpowers and warfare.
Very interesting read on a national security topic that receives (too) little attention in legacy media - so, thank you!
My own outsider take is that the PRC would likely never formally invade with all the complexity and (human) cost involved. A naval/air blockade would rather quickly force global allies (mostly the US - 5,000 miles away) to act or acquiesce. Given what we've most recently seen from the US government vis-a-vis Ukraine, I am today unfortunately not very hopeful.