The Suckerpunch in Saudi
Trump elevates the Saudis to a central role in negotiations with Russia. We explore the Gulf country’s desire to whitewash its authoritarianism through diplomatic showmanship.
Editor’s Note: Ukraine is about to be thrown under the bus and left to rot.
Just last year America’s top diplomat Marco Rubio called Putin a "tyrant" who "stole an election.” When the war started he called the Russian leader “an expert liar.” Now Rubio is ready to place his faith in Putin’s promises of ‘peace,’ and speaks grandly of the “incredible opportunities” in U.S.-Russia cooperation.
Meanwhile, the Trump team has excluded traditional American allies: Ukraine is out, as is Europe and the rest of NATO. It has spent its first month alienating friends and embracing enemies.
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After living in Saudi Arabia for almost two years – and doing business for years more – Ukrainian businessman Kirill Korobtsov knows the Saudis almost like the back of his hand.
He’s always been fascinated by the Arab world. So he entered a linguistic institute where he studied Arabic and English, and showed genuine wonder at the scale and magnitude of Saudi Arabia’s position in the world.
“They're very much neutral, you know?,” said Kirill, about the Saudis' attitude to the Russian-Ukrainian war. “They don't talk about it.”
Perhaps it’s this apathy, this purported blank canvas, that makes the Saudis an ideal moderator from the perspective of the Trump and Putin teams.
One of the least noticed items of the past few days is the centrality of Saudi Arabia to the negotiations. And it raises a damning question – why should the future of a European war in Ukraine be decided:
Without Ukraine…
Without NATO and Europe…
Between Trump and a dictator…
While hosted by another dictator?
Indeed, lost in the madness of the last few days is the fact that these discussions were organized by an authoritarian government that is apparently no longer paying a price for its crimes.
Not long ago Saudi Arabia was marginalized and shunned for their repressive government and for killing and dismembering an American resident, Jamal Khashoggi. Their place in these negotiations is no less than a Trump- and Rubio-enabled whitewashing of their reputation.
Talks between the United States and Russia took place yesterday in Saudi Arabia, and were held without Kyiv’s participation (Zelenskyy postponed his trip to Saudi Arabia in what appears to be a protest).
Other traditional American allies in the free world were pushed aside and subsequently shocked by America’s seeming willingness to turn its back on the democratic world in an effort to make a deal with the authoritarian one.
The elevation of Saudi Arabia is part of that pattern. The Kingdom has great ambitions to take on the role of an indispensable intermediary. And to do that, you must forget all their past and ongoing transgressions: their repression of women, their murder of Khashoggi, their torture, their executions and their silencing of the free press.
In September 2022, Saudi Arabia took part in a prisoner exchange for the first time. It helped to release ten foreigners who were held captive in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories. Several of them had been sentenced to death by a court in the quasi-republic of the DPR.
Thanks to Saudi Arabia, a year later, it was possible to hold closed talks with diplomats from 40 countries, including the United States, China, India, and South Africa, regarding Russia's war against Ukraine. And in 2024, Riyadh mediated the largest prisoner exchange between the United States and Russia since the Cold War.
“The Saudis are in fact contributing to the peace through their neutrality. They held two peace conferences on Ukraine. So, in fact, they probably want to reconcile [Ukraine and Russia],” Kirill told The Counteroffensive.
Kirill doesn’t share The Counteroffensive’s views on Saudi Arabia’s government, or its past, or its usefulness in the ongoing detente between Russia and the United States. As a head of Ukrainian-Saudi council, focused on expanding cooperation between the two countries, he was diplomatic about his stance. He declined to talk about the politics of the country, instead expressing his hopefulness that the Saudis will be able to mediate a peaceful solution.
“They recognize the invasion, they recognize Russian aggression. But they still think it was a pure provocation [by NATO]. And everything here is Uncle Sam's fault. But today a lot can change because [of the ongoing U.S.-Russia] negotiations,” Kirill said to The Counteroffensive.
Kirill, who grew up in Kyiv, has had front-row tickets to Saudi Arabia’s increasing diplomatic heft over the past few years.
His paths crossed with Saudi Arabia when he started to do business. In 2021, when business was paralyzed by the Coronavirus pandemic, Saudis began to come to Ukraine en masse. Kirill worked in the hotel industry, and began getting acquainted with Saudi businesspeople.
So at the end of 2021, Kirill traveled to Saudi Arabia for the first time. Despite the fact that Ukraine and Saudi Arabia are polar opposites in terms of culture, language, and religion, Kirill adapted quickly. He had studied the language at university, already had friends there, and had a good relationship with his host.
"They have good relations with everybody basically except Iran and Yemen… they're also peace-loving, and that's all Islam says… Probably the most hospitable country there is,” he said.
Saudi Arabia has longstanding ties with the United States, and directly with Trump. In 2018, the world was shaken by the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashogg, who opposed the country's leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He was killed and dismembered in a Saudi consulate in Turkey.
Western countries condemned the Saudi leadership for its part in this scandal. Trump was among the very few who sided with the crown prince and his government.
“It was Donald Trump who stood up for him and gave him support. Now Prince Mohammed bin Salman is trying to create an image of a peacemaker by holding peace conferences, donor meetings, sports competitions, cultural festivals, and so on,” explains Oleksandr Khmelevskyi, a Ukrainian expert in politics and economics.
Under the Biden administration, relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States cooled. To stop the military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, which began in 2015, the then-president restricted the sale of precision munitions and other weapons. In addition, Biden has repeatedly spoken out about the state of human rights in the country.
The arrival of Donald Trump has changed everything radically. After his first inauguration in 2017, Trump’s first foreign trip was to Riyadh. Saudi Arabia announced its intention to invest $600 billion in the United States over the next four years of Trump’s second term. Thus, according to Khmelevskyi, Prince Mohammed bin Salman has what Erdogan failed to achieve: Trump's trust.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is committed to maintaining relations with Russia. It is also one of the few countries that Putin has visited since 2022, after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin (but Saudi Arabia is not a member of the ICC, so it did not have obligations to arrest him).
In addition, due to its leadership in OPEC+, Saudi Arabia has significant influence on global oil markets, making it a critical partner for Russia, whose economy is heavily dependent on energy exports. As explained by political expert Mykola Volkivskyi, this helps it, in particular, to have leverage in negotiations with both the West and Russia.
"The Saudis realize what is happening, they realize that all this [the war] is going on. They support us by saying 'We are with you, we hope this will all be over soon." But they still stay very neutral," Kirill said to The Counteroffensive.
Dark clouds lie ahead for America’s negotiations with a dictator, hosted by a dictator. And in the meantime Russia’s views are quickly being adopted by the president of the United States.
Trump has bloviated false figures about how unpopular Zelenskyy is, and even suggested that Ukraine started the war. His administration has taken NATO membership off the table, and said that Ukraine won’t be getting its sovereign territory back.
These are Russian lies and Russian goals – and for what in return?
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NEWS OF THE DAY:
NEW EU SANCTIONS AMID US-RUSSIA TALKS: The EU is preparing a new package of sanctions against Russia amid talks between the US and Russia, the FT reports.
The prospect of a peace agreement without the participation of European representatives raises concerns about the lifting of U.S. sanctions against Russia. So, Europe is working on new financial restraints that will mute those effects.
New EU sanctions will include restrictions on oil and aluminum exports. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hints that EU restrictions on the Russian defense industry, economic restrictions, and sanctions on individual Russian individuals will also be part of the negotiations which are happening without Ukraine’s participation.
ТRUMP DEMANDS UKR ELECTIONS AS ZELENSKYY CREDIBILITY RISES: A recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) shows that the level of trust of the Ukrainian population in President Zelenskyy rose to 57% in February, contradicting Trump's unfounded statistics, Kyiv Independent reports. This trust rating is up five percent since December.
Trump has called for elections in Ukraine and provided false information showing that only four percent of Ukrainians support Zelenskyy's presidency.
KELLOGG IN KYIV TO ‘HEAR OUT’ UKRAINIAN CONCERNS: Trump special envoy Keith Kellogg has arrived in Kyiv, Reuters reports.
The retired general’s main mission is to “listen” to the concerns of the Ukrainian side and convey the key points of the dialogue to the White House. President Zelenskyy suggested that the three-day program of Kellogg's visit include a tour of the front line, a proposal that has not yet been officially confirmed. Kellogg was absent from the negotiations in Riyadh.
TRUMP ECHOES RUSSIAN TALKING POINTS: The American president said that Russia had not destroyed Kyiv because it had been holding off on sending too many rockets into the city.
After falsely stating that Zelenskyy had low approval ratings, Trump demanded new elections in Ukraine. “That’s not a Russia thing, that’s something coming from me,” the president said.
DOG OF WAR:
Today’s Dog of War is this pup who Nastia ran into while taking a walk. The doggie has the whole winter outfit together - from beanie to lil boots - to go through hopefully one of the last freezing weeks of the winter.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Nastia
Difficult to express the shame and anger of Trump doing what he thinks he is authorized to do. Being POTUS does NOT authorize him to
do ANYTHING, SAY ANYTHING he wants.
I can't speak for every American, but we are WITH ZELENSKY and ADMIRE his courage and leadership. Also the UKRAINIANS SO BRAVELY FIGHTING THE WAR AGAINST RUSSIA.
America has NEVER BEFORE FORSAKEN OUR ALLIES.
Our Congress is supposed to be STOPPING TRUMP, but the majority of Republicans in Congress are with Trump, and have confirmed the least qualified people who are only loyal to Trump, not to us or our Constitution.
THOUSANDS of our Civil Servants, who take their work seriously and are loyal to America are being fired. Including Air Traffic controllers which means our skies are LESS SAFE. So far we are unable to stop the devastation.
We are hoping to be able to SUPPORT UKRAINE and PROUD of Zelensky for standing up to this overwhelming betrayal.
It is hard to be living through this, but nothing like you are facing.
Sending you prayers for real peace.💕🗽🇺🇲🇺🇦
Folks at the Bulwark accurately said that America is now one of the bad guys. I weep for the sacrifices made by soldiers storming the Normandy beaches, the alliances built and winning the Cold War. Decline is indeed a choice, a fatal choice made by 77 million Americans.