Watching helplessly as Russia broke ceasefires to kill Ukrainians
Ukraine has tried to adopt ceasefires with Russia over and over. On Tuesday, Kyiv agreed to a 30-day pause. Moscow has violated numerous ceasefires—the shortest lasted just a few minutes.
Editor’s Note: We are going through some of the most turbulent times, with Ukraine's fate on the line. As this story shows: making concessions to Russia is futile — it will continue waging war until it gets everything it wants.
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Olena has learned from bitter experience not to trust the Russians when they say they’ll stop fighting.
Twice they have occupied and destroyed her hometown when they promised they wouldn’t.
First, they seized the eastern Luhansk region in 2014, ignoring pledges to respect Ukrainian borders. During that conflict, there were numerous agreements to halt the fighting, including the Minsk Protocol, but Russia regularly broke its word.
Then, after a few years of fragile peace, Russia attacked again in 2022, despite months of denials over its plans.
“They said there would be no attack, yet at the same time, they shelled a kindergarten in the Luhansk region. And then they invaded, firing tank shells at residential buildings and columns of cars filled with people trying to escape from them. That’s why I don’t believe a single word they say,” Olena said.
Russia has entered into ceasefire agreements at least 25 times - and violated them almost as many times, according to the Ukrainian government. The Counteroffensive team compiled at least 20 violations of ceasefires by Russia during this conflict in the table below.
Some happened during Trump's first term in office, and yet he continues to believe that agreements with Putin, rather than security guarantees, can be the basis for lasting peace.
At the talks in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine agreed to the US proposal for a temporary, 30-day ceasefire. So now it is up to Russia: will it agree to such conditions?
History shows otherwise: Russia has always used any pause in the war to regroup, amass resources, and launch new attacks. If this approach prevails again, it will not only be a problem for Ukraine, but also a signal to other authoritarian regimes around the world that agreements can be ignored without consequences.
Olena Stetsenko is 54 years old. Until 2014, she lived in the city of Luhansk. There, she first worked in law enforcement, then later joined an organization, ‘Civic Corps’, as a volunteer. It was an association of former military personnel and security officers that engaged in military-patriotic education – and her eventual role as its leader put Olena at risk from the Russians.
When Russia occupied the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2014, Olena fled the city for her family home in the small town of Kreminna – still in the Luhansk region, but on the other side of the front line.
She had no other choice — otherwise, the Russians would have killed her.
"I was on the execution lists because I was the head of a public organization. They even had a price list for killing volunteers. And, you see, I speak Ukrainian. That alone could have been enough for them to kill me," she said.
Olena was fortunate not to witness the occupation first hand. However, through acquaintances who remained in Luhansk or traveled there, she learned what the occupiers were doing to her hometown. And she remembers how they broke promises over ceasefires many times.
In April 2014, soon after the occupation of Crimea, Russian-backed separatists also launched an uprising in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. They swiftly seized key administrative buildings in the two largest cities – Donetsk and Luhansk.
After fully taking control of these cities, the separatists declared their independence and announced the creation of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. However, they managed to occupy only part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Olena recounts how the Russians immediately began destroying everything reminiscent of Ukraine: books, libraries, and museums, and also basic infrastructure.
Meanwhile, despite the terror, Olena tried to rebuild her life in Kreminna, where she continued her volunteer work. This time, her main task was helping the Ukrainian military. She delivered food, equipment, and drones to them.
The town adapted to the new realities as well. Although it was close to the front line, life went on. Several government institutions relocated there from the occupied territories. Many refugees also settled in Kreminna.
As fighting got worse, the Russians agreed to a ceasefire, part of Ukraine’s peace plan, starting on June 20, 2014. A temporary truce was to be declared for seven days, during which neither side was allowed to fire.
But Russia did not keep its promise, and the war continued. Russians shelled Ukrainian positions with artillery and tried to advance in some areas.
That August, Ukraine aimed to take back the city of Ilovaisk in the Donetsk region, where there was a bloody battle. Again Russia used lies to try to gain the upper hand.
By the end of the month, Ukrainian troops were surrounded in the city, and agreed to retreat. Putin personally appealed to the separatists, calling on them to open a humanitarian corridor for Ukrainian troops. However, at the last moment, Russia changed the conditions – so that Ukrainian soldiers had to leave without their weapons. Moscow promised not to fire.
But the Russians lied again.
The Ukrainian troops began withdrawing in two columns. At first, they faced no obstacles, but soon after, they came under heavy fire. On that day, 366 soldiers were killed, 429 were wounded, and another 300 were captured.
"As a volunteer, I talked to some soldiers who managed to get out of Ilovaisk. It was a horror, at first they thought that thousands of their comrades were killed there. The real number was certainly less, but the pain did not diminish. The pain of being betrayed," said Olena.
Ukraine was ultimately unable to fully liberate the Donbas region. The two largest cities, Donetsk and Luhansk, remained under occupation.
It was time for negotiations. They took place in Minsk, the capital of Belarus.
According to the Minsk Protocol, the full ceasefire was set to begin at 6:00 PM on September 5, 2014. But the Russians violated it the next day and shelled Ukrainian positions. The war in the Donbas continued.
Despite the fact that the Russian side regularly broke the ceasefire, it was extended in February 2015. This time, it was signed by Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany.
The Russians waited only a few minutes before violating Minsk II.
That second peace agreement was signed amid the backdrop of the battle for Debaltseve, in the Donetsk region, one of the worst that took place before the full-scale invasion.
The Russians tried to recapture Debaltseve, which had been reclaimed by Ukraine, because it was an important transport hub. Despite the ‘ceasefire,’ Ukrainian soldiers were shelled with artillery and multiple launch rocket systems. During the assaults, the Russians also struck civilian infrastructure.
"It was loud not only in Debaltseve. Yes, there were extremely heavy battles there, but it was loud in our area as well. I don't remember any quiet in Luhansk region after 2014. And ‘Minsk-2’ was no exception. The shelling and subversive activities did not stop. And there were more and more people with St. Petersburg or other Russian accents in the occupied territories. Obviously, they were Russian military personnel," said Olena.
The Russians did not even respect Christian holidays, despite having built their politics for years around the defense of Russian Orthodoxy.
In 2015, the OSCE proposed a ‘Christmas truce’ on December 23. Everyone agreed, but Russia violated it again. Every year, Russia has proposed a truce for January 6-7, when Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas. And although these ceasefires were supposed to allow the people of the region to celebrate Christmas and the New Year safely, Russia has constantly violated them.
Olena recalls that the Russians never stopped their attacks in the Luhansk region during the New Year holidays. "We did not expect the Russians to keep their promises. We realized that they would deceive us again. But it was especially painful to know that they were celebrating the New Year with their Russian artists in our Luhansk," she said.
But Olena herself did not want to celebrate Christmas, New Year and other holidays. When the war broke out in 2014, for her, celebrating meant somehow helping those who were defending her country.
"On New Year's Eve, in addition to the usual aid to the military, we tried to send a variety of sweets: gingerbread, cookies, and candy. Sometimes we also sent various New Year's salads. And sometimes we put a Christmas tree branch in the packages. This is all to encourage our guys," she said.
Additionally, there were attempts to organize a ‘school ceasefire’ in 2017 and 2018, when Trump was a president the first time. It could have allowed children in both occupied and free territories to start the school year safely. There were also ‘bread ceasefires’ in 2017 and 2019, intended to allow farmers to gather their crops safely at the end of summer.
But they all ended in violence thanks to the Russians.
"Each time, they were violated. Every time. Today they promise to stop shooting, and tomorrow you hear gunfire, explosions, and soldiers reporting enemy sabotage groups. That’s why we never trusted them," Olena said to The Counteroffensive.
When Zelenskyy came into power in 2019, he believed the previous Ukrainian government was doing a lousy job talking with Russians. Ukrainians just needed to negotiate better, and the war could be ended diplomatically, he thought.
The first step was troop withdrawal – soldiers on both sides would step back from their positions, increasing the neutral zone. The idea was to increase the distance between forces and prevent machine-gun skirmishes. During that withdrawal, a ceasefire was supposed to be in effect, but it was repeatedly violated.
Still, the move had some results – the number of casualties and wounded decreased in these sectors of the front. But the shelling never stopped, and people kept dying despite the ceasefire agreements.
Other Agreement Violations in Ukraine and Abroad:
After the full-scale invasion, Russia also broke the terms of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was agreed in Summer 2022. At that time, Ukraine did not sign the agreement directly with Russia, but did so through the mediation of Turkey. The purpose of this agreement was to ensure the safe export of grain from certain ports in an attempt to address the global food crisis.
The agreement was signed on July 22, 2022, and was set to remain in effect until November 19, 2022. However, on July 23, 2022, the Russians attacked the Odesa Commercial Seaport with Kalibr cruise missiles. Two missiles were intercepted by air defense forces, but two others struck port infrastructure
Ukraine was not the only country to become a victim of Russian deception about the ceasefire. Moscow has acted this way with other countries it has invaded.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, some people in two regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, supported by Russians, wanted to separate. So in December 1991, war broke out in South Ossetia. It was stopped in 1992 when Russian President Yeltsin and Georgian President Shevardnadze signed the Dagomys Agreements on a ceasefire.
This agreement lasted until 2008, when after a referendum, Georgia decided to join NATO. In response to this, Putin promised ‘substantive’ support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And in the summer of that year, Russia started a war against Georgia.
So it turns out that Russia will sign peace agreements or ceasefire agreements for several reasons:
To immediately violate them and show Russia’s impunity;
To turn a country into its hostage and unfreeze the war as soon as it chooses a path other than the Russian one;
To initially comply, only to recover and later attack again.
None of these reasons involve lasting peace.
"It is impossible to trust these people. They say they will stop, that they won’t go further. And then they do. They go to kill and to destroy," Olena said.
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Tim Mak and Claire Berlinski on the ceasefire proposal, and what has happened to the United States:
NEWS OF THE DAY:
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
KURSK UNDER THREAT AFTER PAUSE IN U.S. AID, INTEL: Russian troops have launched an offensive on the Ukrainian-controlled town of Sudzha in the Kursk region, the Kyiv Independent reports.
No official statements have been made by Ukraine so far. Sudzha is located 10 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. On March 11, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that they had managed to recapture 12 settlements.
Ukraine seized part of Russia's Kursk region last August to strengthen its position in potential negotiations with Russia. The situation in the region began to deteriorate for the Ukrainian side amid the backdrop of the suspension of US aid and intelligence sharing.
CHINA, IRAN, RUSSIA DEEPEN MILITARY TIES: China, Iran, and Russia have conducted joint naval exercises called the Maritime Security Belt 2025, Iranian news agency Tasnim reports. The joint exercises were held in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's crude oil trade passes.
In 2023 and 2024, the countries also conducted joint exercises. The cooperation of the three dictatorial countries takes place as all three are involved, directly or indirectly in the war in Ukraine.
Tehran supplies Moscow with large volumes of Shahed drones for strikes in the war, and China provides Russia with components for weapons production.
RUSSIA REACTS TO SAUDI NEGOTIATIONS: Russia spoke with caution about the U.S.-Ukraine agreement on a 30-day ceasefire, Reuters reports.
The Russian side is studying the statements made after the talks and is waiting for more details from the United States regarding the ceasefire, guarantees, and consideration of the situation on the battlefield.
Putin's previous statements suggest that a short-term ceasefire is not a priority for him. Last week, Putin told the mothers and widows of fallen Russians that Moscow “will never give in.” Agreeing to a temporary ceasefire with such preliminary statements could be perceived as a betrayal by the Russian people.
In June last year the Russian dictator announced that the main conditions are Ukraine's refusal to join NATO and the withdrawal of its troops from 4 regions that are mostly controlled by Russia and claimed by it.
DOG OF WAR:
Today’s Dog of War is this cutie, who Nastia saw in commuter train, sleeping peacefully on its owner’s lap.
Stay safe out there.
Best wishes,
Nastia
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Yeah I agree with this , I tend to think this particular ceasefire will only help Russia regroup. But I am glad the warriors on the frontlines will at least get a reprieve
Thanks TCOWTM for listing the 20 (!) ceasefire agreements broken by the Russians. It speaks truth to power in our time.