What Trump’s intel pause cost Ukraine
U.S. has resumed intelligence sharing with Kyiv. But it won’t be able to regain Ukraine's trust as an ally. Now Kyiv needs to seek new, more reliable intelligence providers.
Editor’s Note:
Although Ukraine and the USA are supposedly on the same page now, this is far from the end. The situation in Ukraine is just starting to gain momentum, and it's still unclear when and how the war will end.
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For nearly a week, Ukraine was partially blinded by the actions of its once-close ally: it was deprived of American intelligence.
Civilians suffered from missile and drone attacks, while the military faced Russian offensives.
All of this was intended to force Ukraine into so-called ‘peace.’
"[With Trump], there is a swing that goes back and forth. To be honest, I don't know what will happen next," said Maksym*, a Ukrainian soldier connected with intelligence.
As part of the negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, Washington finally resumed intelligence sharing after a week-long pause. During this time, while Ukraine was significantly weakened by its own ally, Russian forces managed to seize new territories and once again carried out acts of terror against civilians.
For example, on March 8, they massively attacked Odesa with ballistic missiles and drones, striking the port and civilian targets.
This demonstrated that the United States is willing to take any steps, even depriving its partner of the ability to defend itself against war criminals.
“This is not Mean Girls. This is not some episode of some television show. This is very serious,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio as he announced the resumption of intelligence sharing. Someone should tell him that he and his administrations were the ones responsible for putting people’s lives in danger because of a personal dustup.
Trust is not something that can be turned on and off: it takes years to build and can be lost in a mere moment. And the same has happened here: Ukraine will never again have full faith in the Trump administration. Every day, Kyiv will need to be concerned that an errant word or phrase might lead the erratic Trump administration to pull support.
It’s not ‘deal-making,’ as the Trump White House might have you believe. It’s hostage taking. And hostage taking of the worst kind: jamming up long time friends as they try to defend themselves from a hostile force intent on killing them.
"Of course, we were upset. That goes without saying. The lack of intelligence sharing brings a lot of problems," Maksym told The Counteroffensive.
Before the war, Maksym was working in IT, utterly unrelated to the military. When Russia launched its full scale invasion, he woke up with a strange thought: "Who sets off fireworks at five in the morning?”
Soon, it became clear: these were not fireworks.
The fear that occupying forces might invade his home region of Rivne, which borders Belarus, drove him to leave Kyiv and join the territorial defense forces.
Over the past three years, at twenty four years old, Maksym has managed to do different things in the military: training troops on how drones operate in different conditions; becoming an air defense specialist; and eventually working in intelligence. Currently, he focuses on open source intelligence and automating various processes within the Ukrainian army.
The exact sources from which Kyiv receives intelligence, and how much of it comes from the U.S., remain unclear. However, according to Politico estimates, approximately 80 percent of Ukraine’s intelligence comes from foreign sources, with the majority provided by the United States.
In particular, Ukraine receives radar data, satellite imagery, and alerts about Russian military aircraft takeoffs or ballistic missile launches from its American partners. Thankfully, none of the sources that spoke with The Counteroffensive considered the suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine an irreversible catastrophe.
This pause significantly complicated operations for the Ukrainian army, but Kyiv could still gather some intelligence during this time through its own drones, radio interceptions, and intelligence sharing with other countries.
Besides, intelligence exchanges with the U.S. had never been entirely comprehensive. Washington provided only a portion of its data to Kyiv, sometimes with a delay.
The undeniable advantage of U.S. intelligence lies in its absolute dominance in military satellite reconnaissance. With nearly 250 military satellites under its control, the U.S. can conduct near real-time surveillance. In comparison, NATO countries in Europe collectively have only about 50 military satellites – or one fifth American military satellite capacity.
For Kyiv, one particularly critical issue was the suspension of satellite imagery provided by the American operator Maxar. While Ukraine could still purchase images independently, the costs were extremely high.
Maxar supplies 90 percent of the U.S.’s primary geospatial intelligence, with the ability to capture key locations every 3-4 hours in high resolution — capabilities that few other countries or companies can match. Maxar was one of Kyiv’s leading providers of commercial satellite imagery.
With satellite images, Ukrainian forces gain a more comprehensive picture of what is happening along the front lines, in occupied territories, and even in Russia’s rear regions. In particular, satellites are crucial for Ukraine in several ways:
Adjusting and assessing the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets;
Tracking Russian troop movements, identifying enemy positions, and locating critical military sites such as supply depots;
Logistical planning, allowing for alternative route mapping in cases where roads are mined or destroyed.
"We could see, for example, a Russian convoy moving toward a certain location, allowing us to prepare in advance. But now, our troops are somewhat ‘blind,’" Maksym told The Counteroffensive, before intelligence sharing with the U.S. was restored.
This does not mean that Ukraine was left entirely without satellite support. Ukraine has two satellites at its disposal: one purchased by Ukrainians through crowdfunding and another provided by Germany.
Additionally, during the suspension of intelligence sharing with the U.S., France assured Kyiv that it could rely on Paris for reconnaissance. While France's capabilities for space-based surveillance are significantly smaller, its satellites can accurately detect Russian activity in the electromagnetic spectrum.
"The U.K. and France are nuclear-armed nations, which means they have an early warning system. This includes a network of satellites capable of gathering intelligence through both radar and visual imagery. As a result, [they can monitor] the deployment or redeployment of systems related to nuclear weapons [ballistic or cruise missiles]," noted Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, deputy director of an electronic warfare systems manufacturer.
At the same time, the suspension of intelligence sharing complicated the use of American weaponry. For instance, the targeting of U.S.-supplied HIMARS precision-guided missile launchers relies heavily on American intelligence and satellite data. Ukrainian forces have used these systems to disrupt Russian supply routes, strike command centers, and destroy ammunition depots. However, before launching, the system requires precise coordinates. As a result, Ukrainian troops had to rely on their own drones for targeting.
The lack of intelligence likely contributed to Russian advances on the battlefield, particularly in the Kursk region, which Kyiv aims to use as a bargaining chip in future negotiations to exchange for occupied Ukrainian territories. Within a week, the Russian army, receiving reinforcements from well-trained North Korean forces, managed to recapture most of the key Ukrainian positions that Kyiv had seized since August 2024.
"In the Ukrainian army, there’s a problem. Ukraine hasn’t fully developed an [internal] culture of intelligence sharing. It takes time for data to make its way up [the chain of command]. The intelligence provided by our partners helped bridge that gap," said Maksym.
According to Oleksii Teplukhin, CEO of the Ukrainian startup Griselda, which uses AI for input, processing and transmitting information to the military, such pauses in intelligence sharing severely complicate Ukraine’s ability to plan deep strikes inside Russia.
"To take out [Russian] oil depot, you don’t just need to know where it’s located. You need more detailed intelligence — what was there last week, the exact position of the rectification column [a technological apparatus used for separating mixtures], and so on," Oleksii told The Counteroffensive.
But the suspension of intelligence sharing and U.S. military aid didn’t just hurt Ukraine’s armed forces — civilians were killed during the pause.
"I’m glad U.S. support has been restored. At the very least, it will help our air defense because, over the past few days, both drones and missiles have heavily terrorized cities like Dnipro and Odesa," Maksym shared with The Counteroffensive.
While Ukraine was without American intelligence, Russia managed to carry out a series of attacks, striking energy and civilian infrastructure.
Even after everything the Trump administration has done, Maksym still does not consider Americans enemies. Somewhat, he struggles to understand the motives behind the White House’s decisions.
At the same time, Maksym believes that in the future, the Ukrainian army will likely take precautions to avoid becoming overly dependent on the U.S. and to be better prepared in case of another Washington boycott. For example, Ukraine may rely more on intelligence from European allies. NATO, in particular, can provide early warnings about the takeoff of Russian strategic bombers or missile launches.
Moreover, Ukraine learned a valuable lesson during the war: it is unwise to rely entirely on partners, but it is better to depend on itself.
For example, when Western allies were reluctant to provide long-range weapons, Kyiv began developing its own.
The same logic could apply to intelligence. According to Oleksii Teplukhin, CEO of Griselda, Ukrainian developers will likely start seeking their own solutions to reduce reliance on the U.S.
"The U.S. is a huge country, and any mistakes or inaccuracies on its part affect the entire world. It’s like a voodoo doll for the whole planet," Maksym said.
*The name of the military service member has been changed for security reasons.
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UKRAINE AND FOOD!
This Friday March 14 at 8:30 AM Eastern / 12:30 PM GMT / 2:30 PM Kyiv time I (Tim) will be joined by my friend Felicity Spector of the Substack ‘Flour Power,’ for a live video conversation about Ukrainian food.
On the menu: why is sushi so popular in Ukraine?
Our session takes place as part of Substack’s food festival Grubstack, which is bringing together top food writers, chefs, and culinary voices from around the world for live cooking demos, virtual tastings, and in-depth discussions on today’s biggest food trends. You can see the full schedule here.
NEWS OF THE DAY:
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
U.S. RESUMES MIL AID TO UKRAINE AS KREMLIN WEIGHS CEASEFIRE: The U.S. resumed arms deliveries to Ukraine on Wednesday, a day after the Trump administration lifted its aid suspension. Meanwhile, Moscow is reviewing a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire, which Kyiv has endorsed.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia needs more details before responding. Moscow has consistently rejected temporary ceasefires, demanding a complete end to the war on its terms.
Trump, seeking to end the conflict, pressured Zelenskyy to negotiate. The aid freeze followed a tense White House meeting between the two leaders but was reversed after high level talks in Saudi Arabia.
UKRAINE OUT OF ATACMS MISSILES: Ukraine may have run out of all of its long-range ATACMS ballistic missiles, according to the Associated Press citing a U.S. official and a Ukrainian lawmaker who spoke on condition of anonymity. A U.S. official said that the U.S. has provided Ukraine with fewer than 40 of these missiles, and that Ukraine ran out of them in late January. Depending on the modification, the US ATACMS missiles can have a range of 140 to 300 km.
KELLOGG REMOVED FROM TALKS WITH UKRAINE: US special envoy to Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg has been effectively removed from talks on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Politico reports, citing sources.
The talks between the US and Ukraine, which were not attended by Kellogg, confirm that he has been sidelined. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Volz, and US Presidential Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff took center stage at the talks.
GOAT OF WAR:
Today we have an unusual Animal - the Goat of War. Mariana saw a family of goats in Kyiv's Central Park while on a weekend stroll. She was even able to feed them while the goats tried to jump on her hand to get as much food as possible.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Myroslava
Ending with the goat of war was a great surprise. Thanks for doing what you do!
Thx guys & gals. Good read & informative 👍💙🙏🇺🇦