Why the Papal elections matters for Ukraine during the war
As the Vatican steps up its humanitarian role on the issue of captured and deported kids, the world prepares for the election of a new Pope. What does it mean for Ukraine?
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Ukrainian Alina Petrauskaite has chosen to live her life in the service of God. Although she once dreamed of having a family, a deeper calling led her to the convent to serve as a nun.
In their daily prayers, many Catholic believers worldwide pray for Ukraine, and were previously led by Pope Francis until his death last month.
Now, during the election for the new pope, Alina and her fellow nuns are intensifying their prayers so that the cardinals can choose a good pope.
"We desire the Holy Spirit to show them who it should be," she said.
The death of Pope Francis has revived discussions about the Vatican's role in the world’s most pressing conflicts. In the case of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Holy See has long walked a diplomatic tightrope, criticized for ambiguity – yet it continues to maintain dialogue with both Kyiv and Moscow.
Unlike other world powers, the Vatican offers no weapons, only moral leverage — and increasingly, it is using it to help Ukraine reclaim prisoners, deported children, and even the remains of fallen soldiers.
With protocol-breaking moments like Zelenskyy’s placement at the papal funeral, quiet signals from Moscow – such as the Kremlin’s restrained reaction to papal appeals for peace – and even a brief, symbolic meeting with Trump, the Vatican is emerging as an unlikely but important ally for Ukraine — and a rare channel of dialogue in a polarized world.
Alina is a Roman Catholic nun who belongs to the Congregation of the Little Sisters of the Immaculate Heart of Mary. It was founded in Poland in 1888 and began operating in Ukraine in 1969. She and her fellow sisters serve God and do charitable work through social, educational, and pastoral activities. They do not wear traditional monastic habits like other nuns to stay closer to other people and serve among them.
Just like priests, nuns prepare for life in a monastery, which can take several years, gradually discerning their calling. After that, the nuns have to take three vows – of purity, poverty, and obedience – pledging to dedicate themselves to God, community, and service to others.
Alina now serves in Kyiv at the Catholic Media Centre. She is the editor-in-chief of the official website of the Roman Catholic Church in Ukraine. She has commented on Pope Francis' foreign trips, meetings, and solemn services on major holidays. They also cover the activities and life of the Roman Catholic Church in Ukraine.
Ukraine is a predominantly Orthodox country where traditional Catholicism represents a small share of the population – just 1 percent. In addition, about 9 percent of the population identify as Greek Catholics, mostly in western Ukraine. Most Ukrainians belong to Orthodox churches – around 70 percent.
But Christians and non-Christians all around the world are awaiting the election of the next pope – and its geopolitical consequences. Alina says she doesn’t focus on individual candidates — she believes that the most worthy one will be chosen.
The Pope is elected during a conclave, a secret vote of cardinals in the Sistine Chapel. Only cardinals under 80 can vote, and the winning candidate has to gain a majority of two-thirds of the votes in order to be elected. After a successful conclave, white smoke comes out of the Chapel's chimney, to signal that a new pope has been chosen.
Whoever the next Pope is, there will be consequences for Ukraine, as different candidates have different views on the war.
Possible Papal Candidates:
Pietro Parolin: Many believe that the most likely successor to Pope Francis is his former chief advisor, the Vatican Secretary of State. Parolin recognizes Ukraine's right to self-defense, but is cautious about Western military support for fear of escalation. In 2024, he visited Kyiv, and in 2025, he supported the idea of negotiations with Russia for a just and lasting peace.
The Vatican's Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin attends a mass for Palm Sunday in St Peter's square in the Vatican on April 13, 2025. (Photo by TIZIANA FABI/AFP via Getty Images) Luis Antonio Tagle: The Filipino would be the first ever Asian pope if selected. Tagle has spoken about the war mainly in a humanitarian context, without mentioning Russia.
“No gun can kill hope, the goodness of the spirit in the human person. There are so many testimonies to this… The mission to always remind the world that every conflict, every disaster has a human face…. For example, the war in Ukraine and conflicts in other countries of the world are generally presented as political, military conflicts but people are forgotten!” said Tagle in an interview.
Matteo Zuppi: Zuppi – who was chosen by Pope Francis to lead an initiative for peace in Ukraine – has visited Kyiv and Moscow, but has avoided condemning Russian aggression, speaking instead of suffering and the need for peace. Like Tagle, he’s known for being progressive but also cautious in their statements about Ukraine and Russia.
Peter Tarkson: Hailing from Ghana, Tarkson avoids political statements. Calls for prayer for peace and often blames world leaders for nuclear threats, but does not directly condemn Russia.
“With war, everything is lost; but with peace, there is everything to gain. The devastation of Ukraine corresponds to Russia's wobbling economy, Germany's recession & U.S.A's mounting domestic debt etc. But talk about Economic malaise skips pain their economies cause in Ukraine,” Tarkson wrote on Twitter.
Péter Erdő: сlose to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban - a close ally of Russia. For example the cardinal has largely avoided critisizing Orban over democratic backsliding and rule-of-law concerns, including the controversial 2021 anti-LGBT law that closely mirrors Russian legislation, and shares his cautious rhetoric on the war.
Although not openly pro-Russian, he refrains from criticizing Russia and maintains a dialogue with both Russian Orthodox Church and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa expressed concern over the war in Ukraine. In 2022, he performed a rite of consecration of Ukraine and Russia to the Immaculate Heart of Mary – a symbolic request to help the two peoples to rebuild trust, without which, according to him, peace is impossible – and called for the restoration of trust between nations.
“So that they may listen to each other again, that she may help them to rebuild relationships of trust between them, without which there will be no future," said Pizzaballa in 2022.
The conclave will begin on May 7th, and many predict it will not last long, Andrii Yurash, Ukraine's Ambassador to the Holy See, explained that there are different views in the modern church.
"I think that in this situation, it would be more logical for the Church to choose someone who can represent and be acceptable to those groups that envision and plan the future development of the Church. So, a centrist would currently seem to have the strongest prospects," Yurash said.
Today’s cardinals are divided into different groups. Some seek to continue Pope Francis' socially progressive course, others want to return to traditional forms of church life, while some centrists try to combine these approaches, he told The Counteroffensive.
Far from the cardinals’ deliberations in Rome, Alina’s journey into religious life began in Kyiv.
The monk who founded this group believed that sisters should serve in the areas where they came from. That is why Alina continues her ministry in Ukraine.It wasn’t always easy for Alina to become a nun. Alina was baptised in a Catholic church. She attended church with her family only on major holidays. But her life changed when, at age 15, her friends invited her to participate in religious classes at St Alexander Church in the centre of Kyiv.
“At that time, being closer to the church, I realized that I also wanted to be like the nuns I had seen, that I wanted to be in the church like them, and serve God more in this way,” Alina told.
Since then, she has seen the Church as a place of personal faith and a global voice in the world’s most challenging moments.
The Vatican is not involved in military conflicts and does not support any side with arms. Instead, it acts as a moral mediator in wars and conflicts.
Although Alina mentioned that the Pope’s position may not directly influence the aid level, she believes it still matters.
“It’s not just about Pope Francis — this is a long-standing Vatican policy, developed over centuries, with its justification and tradition. Pope Francis, in particular, was more of a pastor at heart than a diplomat,” Alina explained.
Pope Francis's statements have often been quite controversial among Ukrainians. His messages about fraternal nations and the importance of a truce, even with territorial concessions from Ukraine, were not universally popular.
"They are brothers, cousins. Let them come to an understanding! War is always a defeat. Peace to the whole world!" said Pope Francis, addressing the bishops, clergy and religious of the French island of Corsica in December 2024.
“Perhaps we [Ukrainians] wanted to put our words in the pope's mouth and expected the pope to say precisely that. But we see that certain things have now opened up to what the pope did. I realized one thing: Evaluating the pope's words and actions is challenging because we don't know the truth and the mechanisms,” Alina told The Counteroffensive.
Russia has systematically taken steps to develop relations with the Holy See for centuries.
“It was [Francis’] dream because no pope had ever been to Moscow, and he wanted to establish closer contacts, ” Yurash said.
After 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and launched a war in Eastern Ukraine, the Vatican found itself in a difficult diplomatic position, trying to balance condemnation of aggression with maintaining a dialogue with Moscow.
The ‘Pope for Ukraine’ initiative was created to allow people worldwide to donate funds for Ukrainians affected by the war in the country's east. In its first two years, the initiative raised around €16 million, including a personal contribution from Pope Francis.
During the full-scale invasion, a special humanitarian mission, headed by Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, was established. Ten such missions have been carried out since March 2022.
The Pope had general audiences every Wednesday and Sunday, and speeches were broadcast all over the world. In almost all of his speeches, he reminded people about the war in Ukraine, Alina explained.
" While the whole world has forgotten, the news doesn't talk about it anymore, because the bombings are not so tragic, the casualties are not so great, we are all used to the same shelling, but the Pope kept saying ‘Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine.’”
Even in his last Easter address in 2025, Francis mentioned Ukraine.
"Pope Francis, in his Urbi et Orbi [traditional Pope`s address to the ‘city and the world’] address, spoke to the world about the most painful places. He said, "We pray and call on everyone to support martyred Ukraine and to establish a just and lasting peace," Yurash told The Counteroffensive.
Pope Francis died on Monday, 21 April, as a result of a stroke and cardiac arrest. He was 88.
According to the rules, the funeral seating arrangements for world leaders are allocated alphabetically by their country's name in French, the traditional language of diplomacy in which protocols were established.
As President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy should have been seated in the third row or even further back. Instead, he was put in the front row, 11 seats away from Donald Trump, who sat to his right, and next to French President Emmanuel Macron.
The Vatican broke protocol and ensured the Ukrainian president was at the centre of attention at the ceremony. Zelenskyy was also greeted with spontaneous applause when he took his seat in St Peter's Square after a brief meeting with Trump in St Peter's Basilica.
Despite previous agreements between the two sides, this “would not have happened without coordination with the Vatican,” because everything that happens on Vatican territory must be agreed upon in advance, explained Tetiana Izhevska, a former ambassador for Ukraine to the Holy See. “This is definitely an exception to the general rule.”
The meeting lasted 15 minutes and took place in private before the farewell ceremony. Details of the conversation were not disclosed, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it good. “It was a very symbolic meeting that could become historic if we achieve joint results,” the Ukrainian President wrote in his Telegram channel.
As the Cardinals weigh the future direction of the Catholic Church, many believers in Ukraine carry their faith through darkness, far from the Vatican.
The Pope's position has not always been clear to all Ukrainians, but perhaps this was his strength - his choice to act not loudly but carefully, considering each life.
“It seems that Pope Francis was given to us at this time to show that the church should be merciful, simple, and close to everyone,” Alina told The Counteroffensive.
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NEWS OF THE DAY:
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
RUSSIA TRIES TO INFLUENCE POLAND'S ELECTIONS: Poland is witnessing unprecedented attempts by Russia to interfere in the presidential election, according to Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski.
According to him, Moscow is using disinformation and hybrid attacks on critical infrastructure, such as water utilities, thermal power plants and government agencies, to paralyze the state. The number of cyber attacks has doubled since last year, and dozens of incidents were recorded during his speech alone.
Gawkowski believes its support for Ukraine has made it a target for Russian sabotage. Poland has already faced cyber attacks on its space agency and state media, and accuses Russia of arson and sabotage in Europe.
PRICE OF RUSSIAN OIL FALLS TO RECORD LOW: The average price of Russian Urals and ESPO crude oil fell to 3,987 rubles per barrel, more than 40 percent below the planned budget level and the lowest in two years. This collapse is due to the growth of global reserves, OPEC+'s decision to increase production, and expectations of a slowdown in the global economy. In March, oil cost more than 5,000 rubles, and in April it was 4,562 rubles.
The collapse in prices forced the Russian government to cut its energy revenue forecast by a quarter and raise the expected budget deficit for 2025. At the same time, Moscow is increasing military spending to a record 6.3 percent of GDP, which is putting more pressure on finances. Analysts believe that the Kremlin will have to raise taxes, cut social spending, or increase borrowing if it does not plan to reduce funding for the war.
LITHUANIA TO INVEST €1.1 BILLION TO PROTECT THE BORDER WITH RUSSIA, BELARUS: Lithuania plans to invest €1.1 billion to strengthen the defense of its eastern border over the next decade. The bulk of the funds - 800 million euros - will be spent on installing anti-tank mines to deter possible aggression from Russia or Belarus. The measure is aimed at blocking and slowing down a potential invasion, in particular through the strategically important Suwalki corridor.
Vilnius also announced an increase in the defense budget to 5-6 percent of GDP starting in 2026. In March, Lithuania, along with Latvia, Estonia, and Poland, announced its intention to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, which bans anti-personnel mines, which provoked a sharp reaction from Moscow.
DOG OF WAR:
Today’s Dog of War is the cute dog Myroslava saw in the coffee shop near our office.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Myroslava
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It’s amazing to me that no one officially acknowledges that Russia is at war with NATO through its cyber operations and sabotage.
I was baptized RC as a newborn, and let my family know it wasn't my idea ever. That said I am interested in the papal politics. I sure hope Erdő is not chosen as I fear at best he's be in the corner with Popes Pius XI and XII. Not the best for humanity.