Why Zelenskyy Stood Up to Trump-Vance
During the Oval Office meltdown, Zelesnkyy said a ceasefire with Russia was pointless without security guarantees. Why? Ukraine tried that before with the Minsk Agreements, and they lied.
Editor’s Note: Trump has broken the U.S.-Ukraine alliance. This just meant that the war just became a lot more dangerous for anyone living in Ukraine.
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International lawyer Oleksandr Merezhko knows the price of negotiations with the Russians.
And it’s measured in blood.
While the Ukrainian delegation in Minsk was looking for ways to come to peace, Russia was preparing for a new war. While Ukraine was trying to stop the fighting, the Kremlin was violating agreements, building up its forces and waiting for the right moment to strike.
The only thing the Minsk agreements gave Ukraine was time, Merezhko believes, until the next war.
On Friday we saw the sudden and explosive fracturing of the years-long U.S.-Ukrainian alliance, all unfolding in dramatic fashion before us in the Oval Office. The conversation escalated because Zelenskyy dared to point out that diplomacy with Russia has only yielded more violence:
“We signed [a] ceasefire… But after that, [Putin] broke the ceasefire, he killed our people, and he didn’t exchange prisoners… What kind of diplomacy, JD, you are speaking about? What do you mean?”
The rest is history: a shouting match that led to Zelenskyy leaving the White House, and a fissure between Ukraine and what had been until now its closest ally. All because Zelenskyy understood that any agreement without firm security guarantees would only lead to more of his fellow citizens being killed.
Should Ukraine sign a peace agreement with Russia, without security guarantees from its allies? History has already answered: The Minsk agreements, reached after Russia's 2014 aggression, didn't stop the war - they just gave the Kremlin time to prepare for an even bigger offensive.
"It was impossible to negotiate with the Russians. They violated the Minsk agreements. And they tried to use them to create a pretext for war," Oleksandr told The Counteroffensive.
Oleksandr Merezhko, an international lawyer, joined the Trilateral Contact Group for the Peaceful Settlement of the Situation in Eastern Ukraine in 2020. He was the deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation.
The Minsk agreements signed in 2014-2015 were intended to resolve the war in Eastern Ukraine, but they ultimately became instruments of Russian pressure on Ukraine. Minsk-1 provided for a ceasefire, OSCE border monitoring, and a "special status" for the occupied territories. Minsk-2, adopted after heavy fighting in Debaltseve (Donetsk region) in 2015, required Ukraine to legalize this status in the constitution and regain control of the border only after local elections.
The Russians have always insisted that Ukraine is in a civil war. Moscow denied the presence of its troops on Ukrainian territory, although its military led the fighting, supplied weapons, and coordinated the occupation administrations.
Although Merezhko was not involved in negotiating the Minsk agreements, the most challenging aspect of his years of working with the Russians was their persistent denial of their participation in the war against Ukraine.
"It is a paradox: how can you negotiate with someone who says: I am not a party to your negotiations? It was complicated to defend Ukraine's interests: to constantly insist that we are negotiating with Russia. There are no others. We are not negotiating with the Luhansk or Donetsk People's Republics or other terrorist groups," Merezhko said.
The work in the Trilateral Contact Group was a turning point for Merezhko - a real challenge for a lawyer at the center of actual negotiations.
From the beginning of his tenure, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was highly critical of the Minsk Agreements. He proposed revising them and involving the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada in the negotiations, but the Kremlin rejected this initiative.
"I believed that [the agreements] could be implemented with good will... but Russia did not even try to achieve a result, they just wanted to use it for purely propagandistic military purposes to destroy Ukraine," Merezhko said.
As February 2022 approached, when the full-scale invasion began, Oleksandr began to suspect that Russia was planning something more significant. After all, Moscow was increasingly spreading information online that Ukraine was violating the Minsk agreements.
"Russia was looking for an excuse to abandon the ceasefire, accuse Ukraine of violating it, and then its hands would be free for full-scale aggression... We did everything to prevent Russia from having a chance to say that even if it was aggression, an attack, it was provoked by Ukraine," Merezhko said.
The main problem is that the Russians were uninterested in a ceasefire and negotiations. They comply with rules and requirements only when it is to their advantage.
"The Minsk agreements have once again confirmed that we cannot have anything to do with the Russians, because they are liars and never keep their commitments, or keep them only when it is in their interest. When [their] interest disappears, so do the obligations," Ukrainian diplomat and former foreign minister Volodymyr Ohryzko told The Counteroffensive.
The main conclusion to be drawn from the Minsk agreements is that to negotiate anything with the Russians is to disrespect oneself, said Ohryzko.
Therefore, the main argument in talks with Russia is strength.
"If the new [U.S.] administration puts pressure on the Russians rather than on us, then there are chances for some prospects. If it is appeasement and reconciliation with the aggressor, there is no chance for negotiations and no results," Ohryzko said.
However, the United States continues to insist on peace talks, even considering holding them without Ukraine's participation. At the end of February, the first face-to-face meeting between Washington and Moscow since the start of the full-scale invasion took place in Saudi Arabia.
Over his years of work in the Minsk negotiating group, Oleksandr Merezhko has developed his strategy: improvisation and non-standard steps keep the Russians off balance. The Russians carefully prepared for the meetings and had counterarguments for every point raised by the Ukrainian side.
"It's better not to negotiate with the Russians at all, it's hopeless. But when you are already at the negotiating table and you start to improvise, to be creative, it confuses them. And you start to win, maybe even unexpectedly," Merezhko said.
In November 2022, during a speech at the G20 summit, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not agree to any new Minsk agreements.
"[We should ask:] What should be done to force Putin to make concessions in future negotiations? And then there is a completely different logic of action. Then we need to provide Ukraine with weapons and economic aid to put pressure on Russia from all sides. Then Putin will have no way out of the negotiations. If we do not do this, there will be no negotiations," concluded former Foreign Minister Ohryzko.
The conflict between Trump and Zelenskyy is not a disaster, and relations between them can be restored with the right approach, Ohryzko added.
Moreover, the situation could have a positive side: it can contribute to the consolidation of Europe, making it realize its own responsibility for its security and defense capabilities.
"As long as Trump is in power, the stage of cooperation with America on security issues is closing. We will have to think about other forms of security," Ohryzko said.
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NEWS OF THE DAY:
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
U.S., UKRAINE DIGEST BIGGEST DIPLOMATIC CRISIS: Zelenskyy's first meeting with Trump at the White House, which was expected to reset relations between Washington and Kyiv and lead to the signing of an agreement on rare earth minerals, ended in a heated argument. No similar confrontation between an American president and a foreign leader had ever occurred in the White House before, according to The Washington Post.
During the argument, Trump accused Zelenskyy of “gambling with World War III,” claiming that the Ukrainian leader did not want to sign a peace agreement. At the same time, the U.S. made it clear that it would not provide Ukraine with any security guarantees.
Instead, Zelenskyy emphasized that he had already signed an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the presence of the French president and German chancellor, but Russia had violated it. Zelenskyy also claimed that if a bad deal were signed between Russia and Ukraine, the United States would “feel it.”
As a result, the rare earth minerals agreement between Kyiv and Washington was scrapped. Zelenskyy left the United States early, having canceled his scheduled speech at the Hudson Institute.
The White House responded by posting a video of Zelenskyy leaving the building. The post was captioned with Trump’s words: "He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.”
RUBIO URGES ZELENSKYY TO APOLOGIZE: Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated in an interview with CNN that he believes Zelenskyy should apologize for the argument at the White House. According to Rubio, the Ukrainian president allegedly turned the meeting into a “fiasco for him" and "there was no need for him to go in there and become antagonistic."
In an interview with Fox News, Zelenskyy responded that he did not think he had done anything wrong, emphasizing the importance of understanding Ukraine’s position. However, he acknowledged that "it was a bad situation" and suggested that the conversation would have been better conducted behind closed doors, without media presence.
UKRAINE STILL AIMS TO SIGN MINERAL DEAL: The Ukrainian side remains open to signing a mineral agreement and engaging in peace talks, but only with security guarantees, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an interview with Fox News. According to him, Ukraine must enter negotiations with Russia from a position of strength.
Despite the tensions, Zelenskyy expressed confidence that relations between Ukraine and the United States could be restored. He emphasized that "these relations are more than between two presidents."
U.S. MAY CUT ALL MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE: Amid the dispute with Zelenskyy, Trump may entirely suspend current military aid to Ukraine, The Washington Post reported. If the decision is made, it will include billions of dollars worth of radars, vehicles, ammunition and missiles.
The Trump administration is also considering ending indirect military aid to Ukraine, including intelligence sharing, other types of financial assistance, and training for the Ukrainian military. U.S. satellite imagery is one of the most important data sources for the Ukrainian military. In addition, intelligence sharing is critical for air alerts when there is a threat of ballistic missile use.
EUROPE STANDS UP FOR ZELENSKYY: Italy plans to hold an emergency summit with the U.S. and Europe, according to RaiNews. The summit will be held, the Italian prime minister said, to discuss openly how to tackle major challenges, including Ukraine, "which we have defended together in recent years." European leaders are reviewing their arsenals to see if they can intervene and help Ukraine's side.
At the same time, most Western leaders have expressed support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy following the collapse of the rare earths deal. In particular, the newly-elected German chancellor said that Germany "stands with Ukraine in good and in testing times."
Volodymyr Zelenskyy's plane is now en route from the U.S. to the United Kingdom. There, on March 2, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will convene EU and NATO countries to discuss Ukraine's security guarantees.
ISRAEL LOBBIES U.S. TO KEEP MOSCOW’S BASES IN SYRIA: Israel is lobbying the U.S. to leave Russian military bases in Syria to ensure the country remains decentralized and weakened, Reuters reported. The presence of Russian forces is seen as a counterbalance to Turkey’s growing influence in the region.
Israel fears that Turkey’s support for a ‘new Syrian Islamist order’ could facilitate the creation of a base for Hamas and other militant groups in Syria. It remains unclear whether the Trump administration will support Israel’s position.
DOG OF WAR
Today’s dog of war is a stray pup Mariana encountered while taking a stroll around the park. The dog was freezing amidst winter winds.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Mariana
Trump has now fully transitioned from being a classic American pitchman and political charlatan into America’s worst nightmare. He’s aligned his own and the nation’s interests with those of the most dangerous and vicious despot on the planet. These are becoming desperate times.
I am of the firm belief that Zelensky, by refusing to let himself be cowed by Trump and Vance's bullying tactics, has demonstrated the way forward. It's heartening to see Europe showing strong support for Ukraine. The only ones in the US who seem to be cheering for the way Trump and Vance conducted themselves are MAGA sycophants. Everyone else has reacted with disgust, even rage, at their horrific behavior.