Will Ukraine be forced to become neutral?
Finland preserved its independence after war with Russia 80 years ago by giving up territory and declaring neutrality. Will Ukraine be bullied into doing the same?
Editor’s Note: Hello – Tim here from the Munich Security Conference, where America’s stunned European allies are gathering to chew over the Trump administration’s decision to give away Ukraine’s hopes. For nothing.
Yesterday, Trump announced after a call with Putin that peace negotiations had begun. In a hectoring address, his defense secretary insisted that America’s attention would not be focused on Europe, and that the war was a primarily European problem.
Most vexingly, the defense secretary made major American concessions before negotiations even began.
The United States effectively ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, and said that Ukraine’s goal to recover all of its territory was unachievable. Ukraine has shed quite a lot of blood for these goals. Giving it away without receiving anything in return – and without Ukrainian input – is the height of betrayal.
Here in Germany, defense figures are already talking about how a Munich 2.0 is underway, a reference to the infamous Munich 1938 agreement in which the British and French handed parts of Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany in a misguided attempt to appease authoritarianism.
Europeans seem resigned to being sidelined in the negotiations, and not being considered a serious partner. They seem resigned to major compromises over things like Russian sanctions and the defense infrastructure in Europe — with a minimum of input from those most impacted by these changes.
Trump and his negotiators may be able to establish something that resembles a deal. But already we are seeing signs that this is not a trajectory to a durable, inclusive and just peace.
Here’s what I promise you: news coverage that will keep powerful politicians accountable. We will stay in Ukraine and cover the consequences, with no exceptions. My personal commitment to Ukraine is a years-long commitment. We will stay, we will serve as witnesses, and we will tell the truth even and especially when it’s hard.
This is a dangerous time. We are one of the few independent news outlets that puts our own skin in the game, making daily sacrifices to our safety to uplift stories of the war.
We need you now. If you haven’t yet, consider upgrading to a paid subscription. Empathy beats authoritarianism. Our reporting will highlight the injustices of the days ahead, and we will not stop until they are righted.
There were over four hundred thousand of them.
Ossi Savolainen's parents were among the Finns who hastily packed their belongings and evacuated from their native Karelia when Soviet soldiers arrived in November 1939.
They fled their homes and never returned. During the brief Winter War, Finland gave up some of its territories to Russia to preserve its independence and achieve a lasting peace with its neighbor. To achieve this, the country had to adhere to neutrality in exchange for not being attacked again by the Soviets.
Over the next decades of the Cold War, Finland tried to walk a fine line, maintaining friendly relations with the USSR combined with formal foreign policy impartiality, so as not to provoke their aggressive neighbor. It was forced to make embarrassing concessions, like paying reparations to the Soviet Union.
Ukraine is in an incredibly difficult position: its closest ally, the United States, now seems disinterested in playing a major role in guaranteeing its sovereignty.
Earlier this week, U.S. defence secretary Pete Hegseth told Kyiv it is “unrealistic” to expect Ukraine to return to its pre-2014 borders. He also said that NATO membership for Ukraine was likely off the table.
This sets up an unenviable situation for Ukraine: it could mean that they’ll be forced into mandatory neutrality, neither part of Europe, nor free of autocratic Russia.
And this means something most Ukrainians are terribly afraid of: having to trust Russia’s promises.
The experience of the end of the Soviet-Finnish wars could be a reference point for Kyiv to achieve a lasting peace: trading neutrality for the promise of security, and in the meantime become too powerful to realistically invade. Despite partial loss of territory and sacrifices it had to make, Finland has now become one of the most militarily and economically robust countries in the world.
Let’s start with the roots of the Finnish experience: on the eve of World War II, Nazi Germany and the USSR signed the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, which included Finland inside the Soviet zone of influence.
Finland chose to resist, bravely taking on the invading Russian bear. The Winter War between the two nations was quick – there were 105 days of fierce fighting before the weakened Finnish army decided to ask for a truce, and a peace treaty was signed. To save itself, Finland had to cede about ten percent of its territory.
“My father never trusted Russians, but he and my mother always lived near the border... I never heard them say anything positive about Russians. My parents could not understand how I could have friends from Russia,” recalled Ossi Savolainen, a retired Finnish mayor.
Ossi’s mother, Saara, is now 93. She was born and spent her childhood in Kirvu, then part of Finland, but now Russian and called Svobodnoje.
Ossi's mother Saara was only seven at the time. Their family decided to evacuate. The fear of bombarding was present all the time and air alerts were in the system.
“They left everything because they could take only what they could carry themselves. One suitcase was all that you could get with you. Everything else was left to Russia,” said Ossi.
The Soviet military leadership planned to successfully end the war in 20 days and march to Helsinki. In 2022, the plan was “Kyiv in three days” and make Ukraine a satellite of Russia.
Neither of those plans happened.
The Russians overestimated themselves in both Finland and Ukraine. In the Winter War of 1939, Soviet losses were almost five times higher than those of the Finnish army.
Ossi's father, Sulo, was one of those who stood up to defend his home. In 1939, after he was forced to flee his home, he joined the army at the age of 18. He was born in Kurkijoki, which is now a Russian city as well.
The resistance of Finnish society was enormous at the beginning. The Finns, well adapted to harsh winters, used skiis, camouflage suits, and caches of weapons and food in the forests.
But the USSR ultimately broke through the Mannerheim Line, a system of fortifications in southeastern Finland designed to protect against a possible Soviet attack.
Finland entered peace talks in March 1940, in which it ceded territory and retained its independence through a territorial compromise.
“One of the hypothetical scenarios that are being discussed even in Ukraine is that the loss of territory does not equal the loss of independence,” notes historian Roman Ponomarenko.
In 1941, the Continuation War broke out. Finland entered into a treaty with Germany, allying with the Nazis as they both fought against the USSR.
After several years Finland had to sign another peace treaty.
The country was forced to stay away from the EU and NATO. Finland rejected funds from the Marshall Plan, the American postwar aid package to Europe.
But it was allowed to survive.
The country also set a course for maintaining friendly relations with the USSR. In 1948, the countries signed a treaty that defined their relations during 1948-1992, although it imposed restrictions on Finland's foreign policy.
This dynamic between the countries was called ‘Finlandization’ – which means neutrality and the orientation of foreign policy towards the demands of a more powerful state. During this period, the country relied on its own resources and focused on producing quality products for export, which helped develop its economy.
This patronizing, humiliating approach helped the country maintain its independence, albeit at a steep cost. Ossi said that at that time it was the only option for Finland to remain existing.
And in the long term Finland asserted itself.
After the collapse of the USSR in 1991 Finland has managed to increase its political independence and join the EU and NATO. The country now has the largest artillery in Europe, has signed a defense agreement in 2023 with the US, and may become one of the largest arms producers in the future.
Meanwhile public opinion in Ukraine is shifting. The percentage of the country who believes the country should cede occupied territories has increased from 10 percent in 2022 to 38 percent in December 2024.
Anatoliy Chernysh, an expert at the Foreign Policy Council, said that ceding territory would only make sense with security arrangements that would protect Ukraine from a repeat Russian attack in the future. On the other hand, the Russian side has stated that the key condition for peace talks is that Ukraine renounces its hope to join NATO.
With an unfriendly occupant in the White House, Ukraine may be forced down the same path Finland once was.
But surviving means that there’s time and hope to cast off the sources of your oppression.
Finland is now free to determine its own foreign policies, and is using this freedom to completely isolate itself from Russia. In 2023, construction began on a 200-kilometer fence on the border with Russia, scheduled to be completed in 2026. Currently, the closest way to get from Russia to Finland is through Estonia.
Ossi's parents visited their hometowns in Russia after the peace between the two countries was concluded. The last time they saw their homes was in the 2010s. Now, these places are occupied by Russians.
“Every time they came back they cried, every time,” Ossi recalled.
Now Saara lives in Imatra which is about five km away from the border with Russia.
Even after ceding territories, Finns realize that even nearly a century after the winter war, Russia is still a serious security threat.
If you give up land, you can never be sure that Russia will not want more.
Want to support our human interest reporting? Show your appreciation by hitting our tip jar. Funds go towards helping get cold weather gear and batteries for our team.
NEWS OF THE DAY:
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
TRUMP PEACE TALKS WITHOUT UKRAINE: Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin on the phone, the first time he has spoken publicly with the Russian leader since returning to the White House. Trump described the talks as warm and said they agreed to work closely together and plan mutual visits. Later, Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy but emphasized that his meeting with Putin would likely occur without Zelenskyy in Saudi Arabia.
During the conversation, Trump stated that he wanted peace in Ukraine, but his position on resolving the war was focused mainly on Russia's demands. He clarified that he does not support Ukraine's accession to NATO, instead placing the responsibility for its defense on Europe. The Kremlin reported that the conversation lasted almost 90 minutes.
US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth said he’s convinced that President Donald Trump's talks with Putin are “not a betrayal” of Ukraine. [Editor’s note: They are.]
CHINA OFFERED PUTIN-TRUMP SUMMIT WITHOUT ZELENSKYY: Chinese officials have offered through intermediaries to Donald Trump's team to organize a summit between him and Vladimir Putin, as well as to contribute to peacekeeping efforts after a possible ceasefire, The Wall Street Journal reports. The proposal included a US-Russian meeting without the participation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
However, it was met with skepticism in the United States and Europe because of the growing cooperation between Beijing and Moscow. The White House refused to confirm whether it had received the initiative but rejected it.
ZELENSKYY PRESSURES UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION: Zelenskyy has signed a decree stating sanctions against former President Petro Poroshenko.
The decision was made earlier by the National Security and Defense Council, which Zelenskyy chairs. The sanctions list includes businessman Ihor Kolomoisky, former PrivatBank co-owner Hennadiy Boholyubov, and pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk. Poroshenko is in Ukraine, Kolomoisky is in pre-trial detention, and the others are abroad.
The sanctions include freezing assets, a ban on economic activity, and the withdrawal of all titles and awards, which complicates Poroshenko's political activities. It is known that most of his assets are registered to his son, who lives abroad.
DOG OF WAR
Today, we have an unusual photo.
This is Josh in Massachusetts with The Counteroffensive’s Dog of War calendar!
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Myroslava
I think Trump has signaled the end of NATO. Nations in it will create something better & do it without the United States now that the US cannot be trusted.
I would not want a ‘Finlandization’ of Ukraine. Any neutrality or any ‘orientation’ of Ukrainian foreign policy towards Russia would result in what is currently happening in Georgia right now. You would have ‘active measures’ and misinformation which would see a pro-Russian political candidate ‘win’ a district election and then start intimidating and then eliminating opposition. Russia somehow had a grudging respect for the Finnish people but they do not respect Ukrainians. They want to destroy Ukraine.
To me, any settlement must be followed quickly by admission to EU. If they can’t have NATO membership then they must be allowed into EU as quickly as possible. That may not give Ukraine a security guarantee it wants but it might get Putin to back off.