Despite talk of invasion, a blockade of Taiwan is looking like a real possibility. China’s Coast Guard keeps crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, signaling the front may open at sea.
Liked, restacked & shared to Bluesky (as always). Thank, Elaine - thought-provoking article. There is so much going on around the world, these days, especially with Trump's demented insanity, that it is easy to forget Taiwan. Please continue your mission to promote Taiwan's predicament.
I think a Red Chinese blockade and economic pressure campaign against Taiwan is more likely than an invasion. An invasion would be very costly and risk destroying the industry and infrastructure that make Taiwan valuable. Once shooting begins, the risk of escalation to widespread war, perhaps nuclear, is great. Based on the information on food and energy stocks in this article, Taiwan could be brought to its knees by a blockade very rapidly. At present, don't count on much help from the USA.
I recall watching the 2024 Republican debates and hearing Vivek Ramaswamy say that as president he would support Taiwan — support, that is, until the US developed its own chip manufacturing. Then Taiwan would no longer be useful and could be thrown to the CCP dragon.
We have gone from Reagan and “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” to “I don’t care one way or another about Ukraine” and ‘we’ll support Taiwan as long as they’re useful.’ Sorry to digress, but this stuff pisses me off.
The only thing that will prevent Taiwan from being forceably taken by China will be China deciding it no longer wants it. And that is simply not going to happen in my lifetime. An actual fight for it will be destructive of everything that makes Taiwan productive. (Never mind all of the death.)
The rest of the world needs to accept this, move chip production off of the island, and engage China politically by making the point that they can have Taiwan (and Tibet) or they can have relations with the rest of the world. Unfortunately, too much of the world sees this as a fight only among Chinese people and not as the threat to the international order that it is.
The parallels with Ukraine and Russia (or Georgia and Russia, or the Baltic states and Russia) draw themselves.
Well written article! I also suspect that the PRC would much prefer a blockade over an outright invasion. In addition to the arguments you make, I unfortunately think that because a blockade uses "softer" levers of military power, it would likely create a lower sense of intervention urgency and delayed direct, immediate common cause among Taiwan's friends.
Liked, restacked & shared to Bluesky (as always). Thank, Elaine - thought-provoking article. There is so much going on around the world, these days, especially with Trump's demented insanity, that it is easy to forget Taiwan. Please continue your mission to promote Taiwan's predicament.
I think a Red Chinese blockade and economic pressure campaign against Taiwan is more likely than an invasion. An invasion would be very costly and risk destroying the industry and infrastructure that make Taiwan valuable. Once shooting begins, the risk of escalation to widespread war, perhaps nuclear, is great. Based on the information on food and energy stocks in this article, Taiwan could be brought to its knees by a blockade very rapidly. At present, don't count on much help from the USA.
I recall watching the 2024 Republican debates and hearing Vivek Ramaswamy say that as president he would support Taiwan — support, that is, until the US developed its own chip manufacturing. Then Taiwan would no longer be useful and could be thrown to the CCP dragon.
We have gone from Reagan and “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” to “I don’t care one way or another about Ukraine” and ‘we’ll support Taiwan as long as they’re useful.’ Sorry to digress, but this stuff pisses me off.
The only thing that will prevent Taiwan from being forceably taken by China will be China deciding it no longer wants it. And that is simply not going to happen in my lifetime. An actual fight for it will be destructive of everything that makes Taiwan productive. (Never mind all of the death.)
The rest of the world needs to accept this, move chip production off of the island, and engage China politically by making the point that they can have Taiwan (and Tibet) or they can have relations with the rest of the world. Unfortunately, too much of the world sees this as a fight only among Chinese people and not as the threat to the international order that it is.
The parallels with Ukraine and Russia (or Georgia and Russia, or the Baltic states and Russia) draw themselves.
Well written article! I also suspect that the PRC would much prefer a blockade over an outright invasion. In addition to the arguments you make, I unfortunately think that because a blockade uses "softer" levers of military power, it would likely create a lower sense of intervention urgency and delayed direct, immediate common cause among Taiwan's friends.