How China would cut Taiwan off

Despite talk of invasion, a blockade of Taiwan is looking like a real possibility. China’s Coast Guard keeps crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, signaling the front may open at sea.

The sound of the ocean reminds most people of peace and silence.

However, as one of the most hostile waters in the world, the Taiwan Strait has been neither peaceful nor silent for a while.

In September 2022, the Taiwanese Coast Guard sent a warning to the Chinese Coast Guard for getting too close to Taiwanese waters.

The Chinese yelled back, explicitly: “Motherf*cker. You are an idiot”.

An exclusive recording of radio communications between the Taiwanese and Chinese Coast Guards, obtained by The Counteroffensive. It captures the exchange described above.

These kinds of tensions between the two coast guards have become routine since 2022, when the former Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan, which China claims to be part of its territory. Right after Pelosi departed, the Chinese army upped its aggression, including starting a military exercise.

The provocative actions continued, not only to intimidate the Taiwanese but also to set up a possible future operation: a blockade of Taiwan.

According to the Ministry of Taiwan’s monitoring system, Chinese aircrafts are detected crossing the middle line of the Taiwan Strait every day. Most of the time, they are accompanied by Chinese naval battleships. These moves are silent to the Taiwanese public, but U.S. wargaming shows how quickly they could escalate. A CSIS study that ran 26 blockade wargames found that “almost all scenarios entailed casualties.”

If China took control of the Taiwan Strait, it could pose a significant national security threat to Taiwan, accelerating the pace of taking over the island. A blockade in the Taiwan Strait wouldn’t just disrupt chip trade, with Taiwan as the world’s leading supplier.

It could push the world into its deepest political divide since the Cold War.

Taiwanese troops practicing countering a potential Chinese amphibious landing. Source: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense.

Jack Yu, now 37 and living in Taipei, used to dream of becoming a chef. But he failed to reach the required score on his college entry test. His uncle, who had been a sailor for decades, suggested another option — joining a ship’s crew. It could promise Jack Yu a more vivid life and, of course, a higher paycheck.

So, Jack started as a sailor — maintaining security equipment and keeping a lookout became his daily routine. If he were to trace the route of his travels on a map, parts of the world would be nothing but a web of lines: the furthest he’s been is past South India, to the Gulf of Aden, and over to Europe via the Suez Canal.

There is one thing that Jack has always hated: being cut off from the world and his family. The days blurred into eternity for him. The same sea, the same waves, the same faces surrounding him on the ship. Each day, his heart grew heavier, longing to go home.

During his service, Jack also sailed on the Taiwan Strait numerous times.

The Taiwan Strait, a public water that China claims to have authority over. As the Chinese are planning to blockade Taiwan, tension at the Taiwan Strait has intensified. Photo from Google Maps.

“The weather on the Taiwan Strait is quite challenging, especially in the winter,” Jack said. “We encountered a few big waves, I had the worst motion sickness.”

Jack and the other sailors in the crew know that they are in charge of a billion-dollar economic value of shipping cargoes, which include electronic devices, metal materials, food, and medicines. Delivering the cargo intact is their responsibility.

“Taiwan is an island. Our country relies on trade to run functionally,” Jack said. “If Taiwan faced a blockade and lost the critical resources, Taiwan wouldn’t survive for too long, but surrender.”

The CSIS report reached a similar conclusion: Taiwan can withstand non-military pressure from China, but once the PLA introduces submarines or mines, Taiwan cannot hold alone. In simulations where Taiwan fought without direct U.S. intervention, 40 percent of inbound ships were destroyed, even when Taiwan received Western support.

Taiwan Agriculture Minister Chen Junne-jih said that in addition to public grain reserves, private sector stocks bring the total supply to about one year.

In recent years, Beijing has intensified its ‘Grey Zone Warfare’ to threaten regional security in the Taiwan Strait even more, constantly moving the line between peace and direct aggression.

For example, its dual-use and unmarked vessels have been pretending to be those of fishermen while conducting surveillance on Taiwan. Taiwanese Coast Guard data shows they have expelled almost 3,700 Chinese civilian vessels from 2022 to 2025, which the Taiwanese describe as the ‘ocean militia.’

Jack knows how to sail in dangerous waters. He already encountered them in the Red Sea when the Somali pirates were rampant. Back in 2013, when he sailed through, the threat prevented civilian vessels from peacefully sailing those waters, as pirates often attacked them.

“One time, our ship was surrounded by many small boats when we were passing the Gulf of Aden [Strait near Somalia],” Jack recalled. “The pirates dominated the area, and shots were being fired at the time.”

The captain reacted fast and immediately sped up to escape. A few hours later, they got away from the pirates. It was the most dangerous experience Jack has ever had. He was so nervous, thinking only about how to survive. Luckily, they did not fall into the hands of pirates.

But unlike the Gulf of Aden, the Taiwan Strait is not just a piracy risk. The CSIS study found that a blockade in the Strait would quickly become high-casualty and high-risk for everyone involved. On average, simulations involving U.S. intervention resulted in the loss of hundreds of American aircraft and dozens of warships.

The Taiwanese Defense Ministry monitors the Chinese military actions around the middle line of the Taiwan Strait every day. Source: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense.

The Taiwan Strait could become a hot spot, but Jack believes the Chinese aren’t planning to make it like the Gulf of Aden, a dangerous zone for commercial vessels. As one of the biggest exporting countries in the world, China has its commercial ships passing the Taiwan Strait to Europe and America every day. The Chinese wouldn’t want to jeopardize their commercial interests.

“China only wants to damage Taiwan’s economy,” Jack explained. “They wouldn’t block commercial shipping passing the Taiwan Strait. All they need to do is stop the ships coming into Taiwan.”

If a blockade happened, Taiwan would lose the essential imported resources, including military support that can assist in the fight against the Chinese invasion.

A Chinese Coast Guard boat violated the Kinmen waters in August 2025. Source: The Taiwanese Coast Guard.

The Chinese Coast Guard claimed that Taiwan doesn’t have legal authority over the Taiwan Strait and is part of China due to the UN resolution 2758, passed in 1971. An exclusive clip of a radio communication between the Taiwanese and the Chinese Coast Guard obtained by The Counteroffensive.

Mr. Lin, a current Taiwanese Coast Guard crew member, asked to remain anonymous due to rules about talking to the press. He told The Counteroffensive that conflicts like this have become routine for the Taiwanese Coast Guard.

The Chinese Coast Guard ship 3102 turned off the identification system and violated Taiwan’s restricted waters in the southwest area in October 2025. Source: the Taiwanese Coast Guard.

The battle on the ocean exposes the disadvantages Taiwan faces in terms of the scale and size of the facilities. The Chiayi-class patrol vessel is the heaviest in the Taiwanese Coast Guard. Its water displacement is 5,044 tons, only half of the Chinese Coast Guard vessels that normally patrol.

The Taiwanese Coast Guard’s heaviest Chiayi-class patrol vessel is only half the size of the Chinese Coast Guard vessels. Source: Taiwanese Coast Guard.

The Taiwan Strait can be seen in many ways as an advantage in defending against China, yet, in the case of a blockade, it could be a weak spot for Taiwan.

Jack plans to stockpile some food if a war happens, likening it to preparing for a typhoon. But he also plans to live in the moment and play it by ear.

Jack believes that contributing to the country’s defense could be the best option for him. “I have [marine] experience; they could send me to the troops at the coast. I’ve assisted in managing the naval mines when I served in the military,” said Jack, believing that worrying about the war doesn’t help.

But one thing is very difficult to store: energy. Taiwan’s energy grid is its most fragile pressure point. CSIS found that in every scenario, Taiwan’s natural gas reserves lasted only 10 days. Coal was able to hold out for about seven weeks and oil for twenty weeks, assuming distribution is thoughtfully managed. \. Almost all energy supply comes from imported sources, including 21.5 percent of liquified natural gas used for power generation. After that, Taiwan may be plunged into darkness, panicking the public and creating chaos.

After 10 days without liquified natural gas, CSIS concluded, Taiwan would begin experiencing blackouts and public panic.

Former U.S. Naval Intelligence Commander Mike Studeman once suggested that, for the sake of energy security, Taiwan needs at least one nuclear power plant to prepare for a Chinese invasion.

The LNG transporting ship docks at the LNG receiving station in Taoyuan. Source: CPC Corporation, Taiwan.

The ruling party in Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party, has toned down its long-standing anti-nuclear stance. The party leader and President William Lai stated that the government wouldn’t exclude advanced nuclear technology.

Jack believes that even if the Chinese blockade of Taiwan is successful, it will still impact other countries, especially because the high-end chips produced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company make up more than 67 percent of the global market, making it the top company in the world. With the global development of AI, TSMC chips are a critical part of the supply chain.

“Do other countries want these chips to fall into China’s hands?” Jack asked himself. “Countries all over the world would be impacted.”

The people securing Taiwan’s waters are faced with a challenge.

“One of the reasons I quit the sailor job was because the loneliness was unbearable on the ship,” Jack said. “The longest time I was away from home was more than seven months.”

The waters of the strait can be serene – but also a terribly isolating place.

“Days feel like years,” said Jack. “Loneliness is a bigger enemy.”

WAR POETRY:

Anna Bowles is a writer, editor, and activist who has spent a year in Ukraine over the course of six trips since the start of the full-scale invasion. She blogs her travels at Anna Talks Ukraine and has shared with The Counteroffensive her poem “We Are Not in This Field” from her debut collection Landscape with Mines, published December 2nd. Our readers now have a first look at this powerful new work, published by Mica Press.

We Are Not In This Field

East Ukraine, Winter, 2024

We are not in this field. We are humanitarians,

headed to the village with thermal underwear

in boxes stamped Civilian Use Only.

The daylight is fading. Freezing rain.

The soldier says there were ninety in his battalion,

forty are left… But we are not in this field.

My fists are jammed hard into my pockets.

The livestock are gone. The villagers said,

Don’t waste stuff on us, the army need it.

The soldier backs his van up to ours. We might

mislay a box or two, or forget some paperwork.

As humanitarians, we were not in this field.

In a month, the village will be rubble. The Russians

will rape the women in this field. The soldier’s eyes gleam.

As he tells us about his kids, he is not in this field.

Anna Bowles

First published in Collateral Journal 10.1 and in Landscape with Mines (Mica Press, 2025)

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Here’s the Ukrainian translation of the poem, by Khrystyna Radchenko:

Це не наше поле бою

Це не наше поле бою. Ми лише волонтери

З гумдопомогою. Веземо термобілизну в села

В коробках, позначених «Тільки для цивільних».

Смеркається. Дощ. Холод собачий.

Із дев’яноста в батальйоні, каже солдат розпачливо,

Лишилося сорок... Та це не наше поле бою

Руки в кишенях стиснуті в кулаки.

Худоби вже нема. Дід бере слово:

Не марнуйте на нас, віддайте військовим

Солдат здає назад, відчиняє бусик. Буває

Загубиться коробка чи забудемо якісь папери.

Це не наше поле бою. Ми лише волонтери.

За місяць село лежатиме в руїнах. На згарищі

росіяни ґвалтуватимуть жінок. Солдат опускає зброю.

Коли говорить про своїх дітей, це вже не його поле бою.


Анна Бовлес

In the UK and US the book is available in physical copy and ebook from Mica Press, Amazon UK, Waterstones, Amazon US and others.

In other countries, if the book isn’t available from online retailers, Mica Press can supply it direct from their website. Shipping to Ukraine and other European countries is £3.50 for one copy, £1 more for each extra copy. To other countries including the USA it is £6 for one copy, £2 more for each extra copy. Trade customers, such as bookshops, can order at a discount by emailing contact@micapress.uk .

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NEWS OF THE DAY:

By: Aidan Stretch

ZELENSKY GOVERNMENT SABOTAGED INTERNATIONAL OVERSIGHT: A New York Times investigation found that Ukraine’s government systematically the independence of international oversight boards meant to oversee the country’s state-owned energy company Energoatom, the state-owned electricity company Ukrenergo, as well as at Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency. According to the NYT’s investigation, these actions played a part in enabling the ongoing corruption case in which members of Zelenskyy’s inner circle have been accused of skimming $100 million from the state-owned nuclear power company, Energoatom.

U.S. SECURITY STRATEGY SEEKS RAPPROCHEMENT WITH RUSSIA: In a new U.S. National Security Strategy, the Trump administration warned that Europe could grow too weak to be “reliable allies” and did not describe Russia as a threat to U.S. interests. According to the Wall Street Journal’s analysis of the document, the strategy positions the U.S. as an arbiter between Europe and Russia, rather than as an ally to Europe and adversary to Russia. European leaders should “assume that the traditional trans-Atlantic relationship is dead,” said Katja Bego, a senior researcher at Chatham House, told The Wall Street Journal.

MOSCOW BUILDS TECH ALLIANCE WITH INDIA: A Washington Post investigation found that Russia is attempting to develop India’s tech sector to build a non-Western technology bloc, a campaign led by former deep-cover spy Andrei Bezrukov. Internal documents show Moscow pushing joint projects in cybersecurity, quantum tech and hardware production to expand its influence and gain leverage over Indian systems. Though framed as support for India’s “technological sovereignty,” Western officials warn the initiatives could introduce security risks and enable Russian access to critical infrastructure.

DOG OF PEACE:

I saw this chill puppy lying on the ground sunbathing when I was on vacation. It was located in Maokong, the mountain famous for its tea fields.

We hope we get to see him lying here next time!

Best,
Elaine