President Zelenskyy could trigger a diplomatic crisis with Ukrainian ally South Korea if he trades the two North Korean prisoners of war back to Pyongyang.
Hmmm... if Ukraine allows the North Korean prisoners to, in essence, defect to South Korea, I wonder if they might open up a stream of Korean soldiers surrendering. It just might be that North Koreans would look at a chance to get to South Korea as the opportunity of a lifetime.
The Rusdians and Koreans would, of course, strive mightily to hide the "surrender bonus" from the North Korean soldiers.
Hello! I'm Liza, a new community manager of The Counteroffensive.
Interesting thought. If such an opportunity truly exists, it could be a chance for many North Koreans to break free from the totalitarian system. However, Russia and North Korea would undoubtedly do everything to hide this prospect and maintain control over their soldiers. What do you think - how realistic is such a scenario?
I'm not sure how realistic this is. Certainly there is a less than 50% chance of success. Still...
The critical question is: how likely is it that the N.K. troops would ever hear of such an offer. You are, of course, correct that the Russians and North Koreans hide it. My guess is that the men at the front are unlikely to ever hear anything. I hope that Ukrainian commanders (civilian and military) are at least gaming out ways they might spread the word. Perhaps they could trick Russian social media into complaining about it?
Having said all this, I still think it is worth offering those N.K. prisoners the opportunity to defect if they wish. Even if the Korean soldiers never hear about it., keeping South Korea on our side is a powerful incentive.
Excellent post. South Korea, to me, is inscrutable. I find it unbelievably shocking that 82% of S Koreans are against sending weapons and military equipment to Ukraine! This despite N Korea’s direct contributions of missiles and troops to Russia. And their fear of sending much appreciated artillery shells directly to Ukraine is mind-boggling. Still, I’m very happy they do ship what they do. I realize that S Korea is in a very vulnerable position being surrounded by N Korea and China and their nearest ally, Japan, is a historic predator but they must show more strength.
On the issue of returning N Korean prisoners to N or S Korea, Ukraine is in a very difficult position. I think Ukraine would be better off keeping the N Korean POWs in Ukraine for now.
Sadly, most of the democratic world is still in denial that what happens in other countries won’t eventually impact them one way or another. That ship sailed a long time ago but people want to still think they can just ignore the problems around the world in favour of their own.
The Counteroffensive said it was a Gallup Korea poll conducted this past November. I don’t know if there was another poll which corroborated it. It’s shocking how passive S Koreans appear to be.
One needs only remember the Winter Olympics 2018, when North & South Korea competed together at the ice hockey - the joy that was evident in the faces of the competitors. South Korea dreams of being reunited with the North, and many families are split between two lands. Ukraine needs to take this into consideration when dealing with the North Korean prisoners and ensure they are treated as conscripts, not professionals/mercenaries.
Hello! I'm Liza, a new community manager of Counteroffensive.
This is a good perspective. I agree that it's important to find a balance between humanity and other factors like justice and national interests. Considering the experience of other countries, there are ways to act responsibly without compromising on core principles. What do you think, is it possible to achieve this balance in real-world conditions?
I think that discussions between South Korea & Ukraine are needed (ignore North Korea - they will not add anything productive to the discussions). Ensure that all North Korean prisoners of war are informed that they are entitled to return to South Korea if they so wish, and make sure that Russia is aware of this arrangement. Perhaps some leaflets in Korean could be distributed (by drone?), so that this message gets circulated. I suspect that many of the conscripts will arrange to be captured! My two pennies' worth - I am no diplomat, simply a humanitarian.
Long overdue Tim. Thank you. I’m sure people have been wondering about S Korea for a long time even before N Korea became an active player in Ukraine. I’d like to know if S Korea is indirectly sending missiles to Ukraine matching N Korea’s output to Russia. Artillery shells are fantastic but missiles would be even better. It’s been well-documented that Russia has been using N Korean missiles since late 2023. Somehow I don’t think S Korea is doing that. It’s probably too bold for them.
I’m not a legal expert. But I do believe that North Korea is recognized as a country in its own right by the UN and most the world. Therefore, under International Humanitarian Law repatriation of POWs is a state-to-state issue meaning, in this case, a matter between Ukraine and North Korea. However, the wishes of the POWs to be repatriated or not is a different matter and there appears to be exceptions to repatriation including the risk of harm. I found an article (link follows) from Opinio Juris that expands more on that point.
To add to my point above, South Korea, as a signatory to the IHL would also be obligated to follow this law. But, the fact that they don’t recognize North Korea as a state in its own right is certainly a complicating matter. From a legal standpoint, it begs the question whether it creates a legal imposition on Ukraine. It would not be good for Ukraine to be accused of violating IHL. I imagine some lawyers are getting paid hefty fees to look at this. Interesting article.
Zelensky should definitely listen to retired-General Chun. He is one of the most respected soldiers in Korea.
Unfortunately, my fellow countrymen do not realize that Russia is actively re-arming North Korea now. The Russians are providing oil and even A-50 mainstays to the North Koreans. The North Korean military is also learning quickly about fighting with drones.
Many of us still think that after things get sorted out, we can go back to trading with Russia and trying to be good neighbors with the Russians. We need to wake up and think of ways to arm Ukraine to the hilt.
Hello! I'm Liza, a new community manager of The Counteroffensive.
I completely agree with you. Listening to General Chun is the right move, as his experience and respect in Korea are well-deserved. As for Russia and North Korea, we need to recognize how serious this cooperation could be for security and act accordingly. We truly need to gather our strength and focus on supporting Ukraine with everything it needs. What do you think should be the first steps in this direction?
👍👏 Excellent article as usual, with some background most of us would not be aware of. Although I always kind of knew South Koreans see those in the north as just "koreans" living under duress, and many many many having friends & family on both sides of the border. It all makes perfect sense from their point of view when looking at the fate of N. Korean POW's - like others I think they should be kept in Ukraine until after the end of the war, & then given a choice as to where they go then ⁉️
Hope the EU & others help Ukraine with it's independent satellite project - the faster it is fully operational the better for all (except Putin & Mu$k of course 😱)
Hello! I'm Liza, a new community manager of The Counteroffensive.
Great point! How do you think the international community can better support Ukraine in countering the growing threat from North Korea's military cooperation with Russia, particularly in terms of technological and strategic defense?
Hmmm... if Ukraine allows the North Korean prisoners to, in essence, defect to South Korea, I wonder if they might open up a stream of Korean soldiers surrendering. It just might be that North Koreans would look at a chance to get to South Korea as the opportunity of a lifetime.
The Rusdians and Koreans would, of course, strive mightily to hide the "surrender bonus" from the North Korean soldiers.
Hello! I'm Liza, a new community manager of The Counteroffensive.
Interesting thought. If such an opportunity truly exists, it could be a chance for many North Koreans to break free from the totalitarian system. However, Russia and North Korea would undoubtedly do everything to hide this prospect and maintain control over their soldiers. What do you think - how realistic is such a scenario?
Hello Liza.
I'm not sure how realistic this is. Certainly there is a less than 50% chance of success. Still...
The critical question is: how likely is it that the N.K. troops would ever hear of such an offer. You are, of course, correct that the Russians and North Koreans hide it. My guess is that the men at the front are unlikely to ever hear anything. I hope that Ukrainian commanders (civilian and military) are at least gaming out ways they might spread the word. Perhaps they could trick Russian social media into complaining about it?
Having said all this, I still think it is worth offering those N.K. prisoners the opportunity to defect if they wish. Even if the Korean soldiers never hear about it., keeping South Korea on our side is a powerful incentive.
Excellent post. South Korea, to me, is inscrutable. I find it unbelievably shocking that 82% of S Koreans are against sending weapons and military equipment to Ukraine! This despite N Korea’s direct contributions of missiles and troops to Russia. And their fear of sending much appreciated artillery shells directly to Ukraine is mind-boggling. Still, I’m very happy they do ship what they do. I realize that S Korea is in a very vulnerable position being surrounded by N Korea and China and their nearest ally, Japan, is a historic predator but they must show more strength.
On the issue of returning N Korean prisoners to N or S Korea, Ukraine is in a very difficult position. I think Ukraine would be better off keeping the N Korean POWs in Ukraine for now.
Again, excellent post.
Sadly, most of the democratic world is still in denial that what happens in other countries won’t eventually impact them one way or another. That ship sailed a long time ago but people want to still think they can just ignore the problems around the world in favour of their own.
I also find that 82% unbelievable. Is that one poll ?
The Counteroffensive said it was a Gallup Korea poll conducted this past November. I don’t know if there was another poll which corroborated it. It’s shocking how passive S Koreans appear to be.
Trump Tower Moscow re-emerges as Putin bait! Anyone surprised? Anyone? Anyone?
One needs only remember the Winter Olympics 2018, when North & South Korea competed together at the ice hockey - the joy that was evident in the faces of the competitors. South Korea dreams of being reunited with the North, and many families are split between two lands. Ukraine needs to take this into consideration when dealing with the North Korean prisoners and ensure they are treated as conscripts, not professionals/mercenaries.
Hello! I'm Liza, a new community manager of Counteroffensive.
This is a good perspective. I agree that it's important to find a balance between humanity and other factors like justice and national interests. Considering the experience of other countries, there are ways to act responsibly without compromising on core principles. What do you think, is it possible to achieve this balance in real-world conditions?
I think that discussions between South Korea & Ukraine are needed (ignore North Korea - they will not add anything productive to the discussions). Ensure that all North Korean prisoners of war are informed that they are entitled to return to South Korea if they so wish, and make sure that Russia is aware of this arrangement. Perhaps some leaflets in Korean could be distributed (by drone?), so that this message gets circulated. I suspect that many of the conscripts will arrange to be captured! My two pennies' worth - I am no diplomat, simply a humanitarian.
Thank you for this post. This is the unique perspective that no other publication would provide.
That’s what we aim to do! Thank you!
Long overdue Tim. Thank you. I’m sure people have been wondering about S Korea for a long time even before N Korea became an active player in Ukraine. I’d like to know if S Korea is indirectly sending missiles to Ukraine matching N Korea’s output to Russia. Artillery shells are fantastic but missiles would be even better. It’s been well-documented that Russia has been using N Korean missiles since late 2023. Somehow I don’t think S Korea is doing that. It’s probably too bold for them.
I’m not a legal expert. But I do believe that North Korea is recognized as a country in its own right by the UN and most the world. Therefore, under International Humanitarian Law repatriation of POWs is a state-to-state issue meaning, in this case, a matter between Ukraine and North Korea. However, the wishes of the POWs to be repatriated or not is a different matter and there appears to be exceptions to repatriation including the risk of harm. I found an article (link follows) from Opinio Juris that expands more on that point.
https://opiniojuris.org/2025/02/10/north-korean-pows-in-ukraine-navigating-the-legal-framework-for-transfer-or-repatriation/#:~:text=Under%20IHL%2C%20a%20POW's%20desire,be%20repatriated%20(see%20Fleck%20p.
To add to my point above, South Korea, as a signatory to the IHL would also be obligated to follow this law. But, the fact that they don’t recognize North Korea as a state in its own right is certainly a complicating matter. From a legal standpoint, it begs the question whether it creates a legal imposition on Ukraine. It would not be good for Ukraine to be accused of violating IHL. I imagine some lawyers are getting paid hefty fees to look at this. Interesting article.
Zelensky should definitely listen to retired-General Chun. He is one of the most respected soldiers in Korea.
Unfortunately, my fellow countrymen do not realize that Russia is actively re-arming North Korea now. The Russians are providing oil and even A-50 mainstays to the North Koreans. The North Korean military is also learning quickly about fighting with drones.
Many of us still think that after things get sorted out, we can go back to trading with Russia and trying to be good neighbors with the Russians. We need to wake up and think of ways to arm Ukraine to the hilt.
Hello! I'm Liza, a new community manager of The Counteroffensive.
I completely agree with you. Listening to General Chun is the right move, as his experience and respect in Korea are well-deserved. As for Russia and North Korea, we need to recognize how serious this cooperation could be for security and act accordingly. We truly need to gather our strength and focus on supporting Ukraine with everything it needs. What do you think should be the first steps in this direction?
Indeed.
This was an amazing newsletter. What a predicament concerning the captured North Korean solders.
👍👏 Excellent article as usual, with some background most of us would not be aware of. Although I always kind of knew South Koreans see those in the north as just "koreans" living under duress, and many many many having friends & family on both sides of the border. It all makes perfect sense from their point of view when looking at the fate of N. Korean POW's - like others I think they should be kept in Ukraine until after the end of the war, & then given a choice as to where they go then ⁉️
Hope the EU & others help Ukraine with it's independent satellite project - the faster it is fully operational the better for all (except Putin & Mu$k of course 😱)
Hello! I'm Liza, a new community manager of The Counteroffensive.
Great point! How do you think the international community can better support Ukraine in countering the growing threat from North Korea's military cooperation with Russia, particularly in terms of technological and strategic defense?