Why Russia pushes separatism inside NATO
In the spring Russia launched a separatist campaign in Estonian socials. Viktor fled eastern Ukraine in 2014, now settled in the city of Narva and fears the same occupation scenario may repeat here.
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By Kristi Lau
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October, 2023. Viktor Chernyshov is riding in a taxi through Narva, the border city marking the Estonia-Russia line. It became his refuge after Russian soldiers broke into his own home in Ukraine twice.
The car moves smoothly along the even road, while Viktor looks out the window at rows of Soviet-era residential blocks built during Stalin’s time.
Suddenly, the driver sighs: “If only Russia were here…”
“Do you realize you’d be getting paid in rubles then?” Viktor responds.
“Why in rubles? I’m in Europe.”
“How do you think Russia works? Rubles are used there. In the occupied territories, too,” he shot back.
“Oh… right?”
Silence filled the car.
Viktor can no longer count how many times he has encountered similar interactions with local Narva residents. Located just 200 meters from the Russian border, the city has become a center of aggressive Russification since the Soviet times, even after Estonia gained its independence. About 97 percent of its residents speak Russian, and a significant portion hold Russian citizenship.
Viktor’s home region of Luhansk was Russified 12 years ago before being exploited by separatist sentiments intended to launch an invasion. Now he sees the same scenario, hundreds of kilometers from his homeland, repeating.
In February 2026, narratives urging the creation of a so-called ‘Narva People’s Republic’ independent of Estonia began circulating on social media. Estonian investigative journalists later linked the campaign’s early posts to a pro-Kremlin network in St Petersburg as a part of a Russian disinformation operation against the EU countries.
Russia has long been testing the eastern NATO flank with hybrid aggression — frequently violating its airspace with fighter jets or drones. However, a check of public sentiment in Estonia through separatist memes and ‘fun’ videos may mask a new phase of Russian pressure, creating a buffer if it dares to attack the alliance directly.
So when Viktor heard some Narva residents he met openly wish for Russia’s return, involuntary flashbacks appeared before his eyes.
In April 2014, he was doing what he always did — fishing near his hometown in the Luhansk region with friends. They were all in their early twenties, and the river near Lysychansk was a familiar spot.
Then the men appeared: unfamiliar and wearing green uniforms.
“Guys, you’d better stay out of the forest,” the military men warned Viktor and his friends. “There are tripwires there. You’d better not go.”
Shortly after Viktor’s encounter with the soldiers, a mortar shell exploded near his home — the first of many.
He remembers his cat scampering in panic; outside tank tracks pressed into the ground near his grandmother’s house. But Viktor had stopped running down to the basement shelter by the second day of heavy shelling.
“I just slept at home. I didn’t care anymore,” Viktor said. “I only wanted to sleep. There was no water, no electricity.”
It was the start of the Russian occupation in the east, when pro-Russian militants and Russian special forces seized the Donetsk regional administration building, declaring the creation of the illegal ‘Donetsk People’s Republicʼ and later a similar one in Luhansk.
The Kremlin, of course, initially denied its participation in the event. Russia’s purpose of creating pseudo-republics on Ukrainian territory was to simulate the illusion that the Donetsk and Luhansk regions themselves wanted to break away from Ukraine, claiming that Kyiv was allegedly oppressing them.
After two years under Russian occupation, Viktor left his hometown, having struggled to find employment. When he moved to Odesa, Lysychansk Refinery, where he worked as a process operator, was effectively frozen after oil supplies to the enterprise were halted.
Viktor has been living out of suitcases since.
He worked his way through three more cities in search of better work and opportunities, even landing in Tbilisi, Georgia, right after the war’s new phase in early 2022. After a year in the sunny country, Viktor still faced a language barrier and high living costs.
Viktor’s father works in Czechia and told him there was a region in Estonia with a large Russian-speaking population, where it might be possible to find work without a language barrier.
So it became Viktor’s next destination, where he still is today. Viktor settled in Narva and became a design engineer at a local company, hoping he wouldn’t have to pack his suitcase once more.
“The only moment I started to doubt my decision to come here was when Russian narratives became louder and more varied,” he said. “We know them well. There was this idea that the Baltic states could be taken over. At some point, that did make me feel uneasy,” he said.
Viktor added that community fear around Russian takeover of the Baltic states made him feel “uneasy.” Narva currently remains one of the most heavily Russified cities in Europe — largely due to Russian workers flooding the city sent by the USSR while it restricted Estonian movement following World War II. As the USSR sent Russian workers to the city and restricted Estonians from returning there after the war.
The demographic makeover even caused a portion of the Russian-speaking population in the region to fail language and citizenship exams in independent Estonia. As a result, many residents received the status of ‘persons with undetermined citizenship,’ often informally referred to as an ‘alien’ passport,’ while others retained Russian citizenship. Among them were some Narva residents.
“They thought a Russian passport would be stronger or more reliable,” Viktor said. “That was mostly back in the 2000s. They didn’t change it later and just kept it.”
A significant number of people in Narva, he added, still feel connected to Russia through family and relatives.
Many Estonian citizens use Russian tourist visas to cross the border at times, such as during holidays like Easter and New Year’s, Viktor recalled.
The Estonia-Russia border in Narva is heavily patrolled, as Russians illegally cross border in various populated areas as part of provocations. In December 2025, unauthorized Russian border guards appeared on the Estonian side of the Narva River for 20 minutes.
Russian tourist entry has been effectively prohibited, full customs checks have been implemented, and 24-hour border crossings have been replaced with limited daytime operating hours since May 2024.
However, Russia has now brought provocations to another level, as images of black-and-white flags of the so-called Narva People’s Republic now flood Facebook, TikTok, VK and Russian messenger like Telegram.
The posts contain even an alleged anthem, military patches and coat of arms of the fake republic.
The images are a reminder for Viktor as to why he always keeps a stocked backpack, full tank of fuel, and some cash on hand. But Viktor’s friends from Narva aren’t as fearful toward the rumors.
“I was telling them that in the event of an invasion, they wouldn’t have time to do anything — no time to pack, no time to leave. Narva would be the first to come on under pressure because it could be entered very easily,” he noted.
According to Viktor, if Russian troops were to attack, they would have two entrance points: a road bridge, still in use, and a railway bridge, still carrying freight trains — both allowing soldiers to be inside Narva almost instantly.
Russians displayed a live translation from Moscow’s military parade, which could be seen from Narva city on May 9, 2026. Instagram: @Pandanjan.
Due to significant losses in Ukraine, Russia will likely struggle to sustain a new front in the near future. However, the latest May report by the Estonian Armed Forces suggests that Russia may soon restore its combat capabilities, and “if it then perceives a favorable opportunity somewhere to use its military, it will do so.”
Estonia has effectively withstood Russian influences by blocking Kremlin-linked propaganda media and monitoring extremist activity, disinformation networks, and online groups spreading similar hybrid narratives.
“Someone once told me that there was a woman who was very actively pushing these ideas on Facebook. The authorities contacted her, took her somewhere for a conversation, warned her that she should stop or she would face deportation. And after that, it all stopped,” Viktor recalled.
Along the wider border zone, a network of around 600 reinforced concrete bunkers and defensive positions is being developed by Estonian security authorities to withstand heavy artillery strikes.
In cooperation with Finland, Estonia is also working on plans to counter the Russian Baltic Fleet and protect undersea infrastructure, involving NATO naval forces.
But living in Narva doesn’t let Viktor forget that constantly reminded that Russia is right next door. Even during his usual fishing trips he can still see a Russian border guard posted on a nearby the bridge.
“You don’t do anything to him, and he doesn’t do anything to you. But it still irritates you — that tricolor flag waving there on the other side, just a piece of cloth, and that’s it,” he said.
But Viktor never lets his guard down fully. The last time he received a notification about an Estonian airspace violation was this afternoon, on May 19.
Correction: In our latest version of the story we misrepresented the origin of the drone which entered Estonian air space. It was reportedly a Ukrainian drone, which violated Estonian air space due to the Russian electronic warfare. Also, Lysychansk is in the Luhansk region. We apologize for the mistakes.
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By Kristi Lau
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NEWS OF THE DAY:
By Ivanna Shvets
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
UKRAINE’S FIRST DOMESTICALLY PRODUCED GLIDE BOMB: Brave1 defense cluster announced that Ukraine’s first domestically developed glide bomb, the Vyrivniuvach (Ukrainian for “Equalizer”), has completed all required trials and is ready for combat, according to the Business Insider.
Developed over 17 months by the Brave1, the weapon carries a 250-kilogram warhead and was built entirely from scratch rather than being adapted from older Soviet systems.
The new bomb is designed to strike targets far behind enemy lines regardless of weather conditions. Ukrainian Air Force pilots are currently rehearsing combat scenarios to deploy the high-precision weapon in active frontline operations.
BELARUS AND RUSSIA LAUNCH JOINT NUCLEAR DRILLS: Belarusian officials recently stated they are conducting coordinated military exercises with Russia to practice the use of tactical nuclear weapons that Moscow recently stationed in the country, according to Associated Press.
These joint maneuvers underscore the deepening military integration between the two allies. Belarus recently ramped up mobilization and combat training, while Zelenskyy recently said that there is evidence that Moscow is pushing Belarus to become more involved in military action against Ukraine.
INJURED RUSSIAN TROOPS SENT TO CIVILIAN HOSPITALS: Russian military hospitals are reportedly struggling to accommodate the influx of soldiers wounded in the war against Ukraine, prompting authorities to turn to civilian healthcare facilities. The Russian Defense Ministry is taking over maternity wards and specialized clinics across the country to treat military personnel.
Medical staff in St. Petersburg have reported that wounded soldiers are currently housed in almost every major hospital, which puts a significant strain on medical supplies intended for civilians. Such strain on the healthcare system comes alongside a severe national shortage of medical workers — last year, the Russian Health Minister said the country needed at least 23,000 more doctors and 63,600 paramedical staff.
U.S. EXTENDS RUSSIAN OIL WAIVER: The U.S. has extended a waiver on Russian oil sales as President Donald Trump attempts to curb rising global fuel prices exacerbated by the ongoing war with Iran, the Financial Times reports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the department is extending the waiver by issuing a new 30-day license to allow vulnerable nations temporary access to Russian oil currently stranded at sea. The move comes as Brent crude prices surged past $110 a barrel, driving voter frustration over the economic costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East.
CAT OF CONFLICT:
Sasha saw this cat near her apartment building. No matter what people think of his black fur, the days she meets him are always lucky.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Anastasiia
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I wish people weren’t so gullible.
If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, it’s pretty obvious, very obvious, that the Baltic Nations & Poland are next on his ‘Empire Restoration Agenda’. Only the incredible resilience of the Ukrainian People has prevented that from happening already. With regards to the mixed propaganda campaigns, it is unfortunate, sad, and true that people are always susceptible to the message that ‘things would be better if” (fill in the ________) only you let the monster inside your home. If I were being subjected to that message, I would ask the simple question, ‘If things are so great in Russia, then why are you here bothering me?’…Thanks for your wonderful reporting on such horrible times.