“When will war end” searches peak in Russia
With a partially stabilized frontline and some advancements, Ukraine has carried out a number of successful attacks never before seen in Russia. Read our second monthly war analysis!
At the bottom of this page: Latest news at this hour.
Russia bans diesel exports… Ukraine told Greece strike against russian ships to continue… Producing patriot missiles in Ukraine won’t be simple… 2 years since the russian attack on ‘Okhmatdyt’.
Editor’s Note:
Welcome to our monthly issue focused on the latest updates from the battlefield.
This type of coverage is unusual for The Counteroffensive, as we typically center our reporting on individual human stories. However, we cannot ignore the broader strategic pictureю, especially since you, our readers, have repeatedly shared how much you want to know exactly how things are unfolding on the front lines.
To support our work and never miss an update, please consider subscribing to our publication.
OUR LEAD STORY:
KYIV, Ukraine — Since May, Ukraine has largely maintained the pace of its strikes deep inside Russia and its efforts to stabilize the front, making June a relatively successful month for Kyiv despite difficult sectors along the front line and an intensifying Russian air campaign.
In this issue, The Counteroffensive spoke with military and economic analysts, as well as agents in the military underground resistance movement in occupied territories, to explore successes and setbacks on the battlefield: the Crimean middle-strike campaign, Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s largest oil refineries, and what Moscow is likely to do next.
Zelenskyy’s Campaign to “Break Russia”
Emergency state in Crimea. This June, Ukraine’s military systematically targeted energy infrastructure, military facilities, and logistics in Crimea, complicating Russia’s ability to supply troops, fuel, military equipment, and other resources to the Zaporizhzhia and the Kherson region. The operation is also seen as a peninsula-blockade aimed at trapping Russian forces there.
Ukrainian forces have brought key highways under fire control and struck ferries, the shadow fleet, and railway infrastructure, leaving the Kerch Bridge (operating under significant restrictions) as the only remaining major logistical artery connecting Crimea to Russia.
Strikes on bridges have already reduced military traffic along the key Mariupol–Sevastopol highway, which links Crimea with Donbas, by 71 percent.
Russians now reportedly use vehicles belonging to municipal services — the postal service, gas utilities, and other organizations — including passenger cars to transport fuel to military positions, according to Atesh, a military underground resistance movement in occupied territories and Russia.
Agents from Atesh’s group embedded within the Russian military say that the delivery of military equipment and food supplies, as well as the execution of various administrative processes, has also slowed significantly due to the blackouts caused by Ukrainian strikes.
Following intense Ukrainian strikes and mounting gas crises across Russia, Crimea entered a state of emergency.
Both local residents and Russian tourists are now evacuating from the peninsula, the partisans told The Counteroffensive. In recent weeks, traffic queues stretching up to 20 kilometers formed at the exit over the Kerch Bridge, with some people reportedly unable to leave for three to four days due to fuel shortages. Occupation administration officials are also reportedly requesting sick leave or vacation to leave Crimea.
All Russian major oil refineries hit. As of July, Ukraine has disabled more than 40 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity by targeting facilities. Eight refineries were struck this month alone, several sustaining significant damage. The Moscow Oil Refinery, which supplies fuel to the entire Moscow region, is unlikely to resume operations before early 2027.
According to Ihor Burakovskyi, Chairman of the Board at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, the timing is particularly painful for Russia as summer is the peak season for fuel consumption.
Ukraine also struck the last remaining facility on its list of Russia’s 11 largest oil refineries, meaning all of them are now within the reach of Ukrainian forces. The Omsk Oil Refinery suspended operations following a drone attack on July 7, marking one of Ukraine’s deepest strikes into Russia to date — approximately 2,500 kilometers from the border.
The targeted refineries supply much of the country’s domestic fuel market. Refined petroleum products also generate higher profits than crude oil exports, making refinery outages a greater economic blow. The volume of crude oil Russia processed into fuel fell by a quarter in June compared with the same month last year, reaching its lowest level in more than two decades.
“This is a logistical issue — it has to be solved immediately. But then another problem arises: they cannot divert large volumes of fuel from Kazakhstan or Belarus because doing so would create shortages there,” Burakovskyi said.
Ukraine may also have carried out its first-ever ballistic missile strike inside Russia on July 2. If confirmed, the launch of the FP-9 ballistic missile, reportedly capable of striking targets up to 850 kilometers away, would make Russian air defenses’ job significantly more difficult since ballistic missiles travel much faster than drones or cruise missiles.
By the end of June, web searches for “When will the SMO end?” (Special Military Operation — Russia’s official term for its war against Ukraine) had reached an all-time high. The phrase was searched more than 137,000 times from June 22–28 on Russia’s largest search engine, Yandex.
Ukraine’s territorial gains outpace losses again
Ukraine lost 84 sq. km. of territory in June (0.0001% of its total land area) according to DeepState, an OSINT project that tracks frontline movements. For the second month in a row, Ukraine has liberated more territory than Russian forces have occupied, which is a notable achievement not seen since the 2023 counteroffensive.
Roman Pohorilyi, co-founder of DeepState, told The Counteroffensive that Ukrainian forces are making gains in at least two areas. Exactly where those gains have been made has not been disclosed for security reasons, but the AFU might be advancing on the southern front given the recent strikes on logistics routes linking Russian forces with occupied Crimea.
Eastern axis. The situation around Kostiantynivka, a frontline city in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, remains particularly difficult after 8 months of intense fighting. Russian forces have once again relied on infiltration tactics, slipping into the city in small groups to establish a foothold.
Pohorilyi says that the Ukrainian military is still holding the city, although it has become increasingly difficult and chaotic due to Russia’s manpower advantage, a lack of coordination between Ukrainian drone operators and infantry, as well as constant attacks on logistics in the area.
If Kostiantynivka falls, Russian forces would gain a more direct route toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk: the last two major Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbas. (Read about why Donetsk’s fortified belt is vital for Ukraine here.)
Russian activity has also intensified near Lyman in the Donetsk region. Instead of launching a direct assault on the city, Russian troops are attempting to bypass it and reach the settlement of Raihorodok, from where they could launch an offensive toward Sloviansk.
Southern axis. Russian forces also completely captured Huliaipole on the southern front in the Zaporizhzhia region, continuing their advances into nearby settlements. The city had been resisting repeated Russian active attempts to seize it since the end of 2025.
The AFU says Russian units remain about 30 kilometers from the city of Zaporizhzhia, despite Putin’s claim that Russian troops are already within 9 kilometers.
Northern axis. Russians are continuing the assault operations in the Sumy region, aimed at creating a buffer zone, though their gains remain limited. Russian forces are currently positioned about 20 kilometers away from the city, and there are no signs of a major offensive.
Russia’s next steps
Russia is looking to announce a mass mobilization on the frontline this fall following a manpower shortage, right after the domestic elections take place in the country. As of now, the Russian army is facing around 30,000–34,000 casualties per month, whereas approximately 27,000 people per month join the army.
According to Atesh, a similar mobilization campaign was already carried out in 2022 after the Kharkiv offensive, which helped to stabilize the frontline. However, the partisans say this time the situation might be different.
“Russia can no longer recruit enough people even for contract military service…Russian universities have been assigned quotas requiring at least 2% of students to sign contracts. Yet even that has failed to produce the desired results,” said Atesh.
Roman Pohorilyi, a co-founder of DeepState, remains skeptical as well.
“They cannot simply mobilize a million people overnight. It takes funding, weapons, equipment, logistics, and training, all of which require enormous resources, organization, and time,” he said.
Russia is also adapting its tactics of massive attacks. It has begun launching Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles at Kyiv from Russia’s Kursk region instead of occupied Crimea. Whereas the missiles previously took six to ten minutes to reach Kyiv, the new launch trajectory has reduced the flight time to four to six minutes, making its interception more complicated even for Patriot interceptor systems.
Russia has also begun deploying jet-powered drones on Shahed platforms far more intensively. Equipped with turbojet engines, they can reach speeds of up to 500 kilometers per hour. Ukraine can currently intercept more than 90 percent of Shahed drones with interceptor drones, but those systems cannot bring down jet-powered drones. As a result, Ukraine must rely on surface-to-air missiles, further depleting its already limited air-defense stockpiles.
Some of the attacks were facilitated through Belarus, which has yet to dismantle relay stations that allow Russian drones to be controlled in real time, despite repeated warnings from Ukraine.
“The enemy may have switched to intermittent operation, activating [the relay stations] only during attacks. To improve concealment and make them harder for Ukraine to detect, they simply shut them down when they are not in use,” said Bohdan Dolintse, an aviation expert.
Despite Minsk’s continued support for Moscow’s war effort, Kyiv considers a renewed offensive from Belarus less likely. Ukraine is preparing for a possible offensive into the Chernihiv region from Russia’s Bryansk region instead.
Nevertheless, Ukraine is continuing to reinforce its northern border, building new fortifications and installing anti-drone netting.
Interested to know what’s going on in Ukraine? We recommend reading these stories about the latest updates:
Uninvited drones ruined Putin’s big economic party
Russia’s oil empire running low on gas
How Ukraine is cutting off Russia’s land corridor to Crimea
Editor’s Note:
Welcome to our monthly issue focused on the latest updates from the battlefield.
This type of coverage is unusual for The Counteroffensive, as we typically center our reporting on individual human stories. However, we cannot ignore the broader strategic picture, especially since you, our readers, have repeatedly shared how much you want to know exactly how things are unfolding on the front lines.
To support our work and never miss an update, please consider subscribing to our publication.
THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:
By Petro Gordon, Kateryna Antonenko
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
RUSSIA BANS DIESEL EXPORTS: Moscow has banned export of the diesel fuel after Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries left most of Russia suffering severe fuel shortages, Reuters reports. Alongside the export ban, Russia will now be importing petroleum products to ease its domestic fuel shortage.
As part of Ukraine’s barrage of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, Ukraine has attacked Russia’s largest oil refinery in Omsk, forcing the refinery to pause operations. The July 7 attack was one of Ukraine’s longest-range attacks of the war so far.
Russian-occupied Crimea is experiencing some of the worst shortages, which have strained the country’s fuel supply amongst other goods. Fuel prices have almost doubled in the past week, and even the purchase of fuel has been restricted on the peninsula.
UKRAINE TOLD GREECE STRIKE AGAINST RUSSIAN SHIPS TO CONTINUE: Athens was outraged after a Ukrainian maritime drone carrying 100 kilograms of explosives, believed to be headed for a Russian tanker, was discovered near a Greek island in the Ionian Sea. Greek officials demanded an apology from Kyiv and as well as reassurances that this would be avoided in future.
While Kyiv did apologize, it has not promised to hold back from future attacks and Ukraine has said Russian ships will be treated as military targets.
PRODUCING PATRIOT MISSILES IN UKRAINE WON’T BE SIMPLE: Trump recently said that he may give Ukraine the license to start producing Patriot interceptor missiles. However, Bloomberg has reported that developing Ukrainian production of the weapons would take years even if the U.S. license was issued, meaning that it will do little to ease Ukraine’s current air defense shortage. It was also noted that the production of these missiles would be at risk of attacks from Russia.
Furthermore, large-scale production of Lockheed Martin Corp.’s Patriot missiles in Ukraine is complicated by the missiles’ inherent complexity and strict U.S. technology controls. Supply chains are already overburdened, and launching a new production line would require specialized equipment and training.
2 YEARS SINCE THE RUSSIAN ATTACK ON ‘OKHMATDYT’: Ukraine commemorates the massive attack on Okhmadyt, the children’s hospital in Kyiv which occurred on July 8, 2024. Russia carried out a massive bombardment of the capital, firing an X-101 cruise missile at the country’s largest children’s hospital.
Video: Our reporter Anastasiia shared what she saw on that day.
DOG OF WAR:
Petro’s family dog, Gumbert, is preparing for fight…or to dig a big hole in the backyard.
Stay safe out there.
Best,
Mariana
Excellent reporting, there is a great deal of detail here that clarifies what is taking place for those of us not living and working directly in the middle of the Russian war.
"Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands."
I never tire of reading these words.